Illinois State Senate elections, 2016
| 2016 Illinois Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | March 15, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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A total of 40 seats out of the 59 seats in the Illinois State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained two seats in the November 2016 general election.
Under the Illinois Constitution of 1970, senators are divided into three groups, each group having a two-year term at a different part of the decade between censuses, with the rest of the decade being taken up by two four-year terms.[1] Depending on the election year, roughly ⅓, ⅔, or all of the senate seats may have terms ending.
Introduction
Elections for the Illinois State Senate were held in 2016. The primary election was held on March 15, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was November 30, 2015.[2]
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Illinois State Senate:
| Illinois State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 39 | 37 | |
| Republican Party | 20 | 22 | |
| Total | 59 | 59 | |
Retired incumbents
Five incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| William Delgado | Senate District 2 | |
| Michael Noland | Senate District 22 | |
| Dan Duffy | Senate District 26 | |
| John Sullivan | Senate District 47 | |
| David Luechtefeld | Senate District 58 |
Note: Dan Duffy (R) resigned from the state Senate on April 3, 2016. Dan McConchie (R) was appointed to the seat on April 20, 2016.
2016 election competitiveness
Illinois saw a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Illinois performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Illinois State Senate, there were 39 Democratic incumbents and 20 Republican incumbents. Two incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were two primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 71 Democratic incumbents and 47 Republican incumbents. Nine state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were four primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Illinois can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Illinois Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | Antonio Munoz (I) |
No candidate | |
| 2 | Omar Aquino |
No candidate | |
| 4 | Kimberly Lightford (I) |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Patricia Van Pelt Watkins (I) |
No candidate | |
| 7 | Heather Steans (I) |
No candidate | |
| 8 | Ira Silverstein (I) |
No candidate | |
| 10 | John G. Mulroe (I) |
No candidate | |
| 11 | Martin Sandoval (I) |
No candidate | |
| 13 | Kwame Raoul (I) |
No candidate | |
| 14 | Emil Jones (I) |
No candidate | |
| 16 | Jacqueline Collins (I) |
No candidate | |
| 17 | Donne Trotter (I) |
No candidate | |
| 19 | Michael Hastings (I) |
No candidate | |
| 20 | Iris Martinez (I) |
No candidate | |
| 22 | Cristina Castro: 39,835 |
Tracy Smodilla: 21,991 | |
| 23 | Tom Cullerton: 44,643 (I) |
Seth Lewis: 43,429 | |
| 25 | Corinne Pierog: 45,317 | Jim Oberweis: 54,636 (I) |
|
| 26 | Kelly Mazeski: 43,738 | Dan McConchie: 63,432 (I) |
|
| 28 | Laura Murphy: 47,097 (I) |
Mel Thillens: 40,950 | |
| 29 | Julie Morrison: 53,744 (I) |
Benjamin Salzberg: 37,174 | |
| 31 | Melinda Bush: 48,303 (I) |
Michael Amrozowicz: 41,044 | |
| 32 | Melissa Coyne: 31,217 | Pamela Althoff: 65,150 (I) |
|
| 34 | Steve Stadelman (I) |
No candidate | |
| 35 | No candidate | Dave Syverson (I) |
|
| 37 | No candidate | Chuck Weaver (I) |
|
| 38 | Christine Benson: 40,586 | Sue Rezin: 55,848 (I) |
|
| 40 | Toi Hutchinson (I) |
No candidate | |
| 41 | No candidate | Christine Radogno (I) |
|
| 43 | Pat McGuire (I) |
No candidate | |
| 44 | No candidate | Bill Brady (I) |
|
| 46 | David Koehler (I) |
No candidate | |
| 47 | No candidate | Jil Tracy |
|
| 49 | Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant: 51,960 (I) |
Michelle Smith: 46,581 | |
| 50 | No candidate | William "Sam" McCann (I) |
|
| 52 | Scott M. Bennett: 52,401 (I) |
Michael P. Madigan: 33,562 | |
| 53 | No candidate | Jason Barickman (I) |
|
| 55 | No candidate | Dale Righter (I) |
|
| 56 | William Haine (I) |
No candidate | |
| 58 | Sheila Simon: 38,905 | Paul Schimpf: 59,735 |
|
| 59 | Gary Forby: 43,503 (I) | Dale Fowler: 53,501 |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
| 2016 Illinois Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | Antonio Munoz (I) |
No candidate | |
| 2 | Angelica Alfaro: 19,193 Omar Aquino: 21,557 |
No candidate | |
| 4 | Kimberly Lightford (I) |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Patricia Van Pelt: 33,123 (I) Bob Fioretti: 15,696 |
No candidate | |
| 7 | Heather Steans (I) |
No candidate | |
| 8 | Ira Silverstein (I) |
No candidate | |
| 10 | John G. Mulroe (I) |
No candidate | |
| 11 | Martin Sandoval (I) |
No candidate | |
| 13 | Kwame Raoul (I) |
No candidate | |
| 14 | Emil Jones (I) |
No candidate | |
| 16 | Jacqueline Collins (I) |
No candidate | |
| 17 | Donne Trotter (I) |
No candidate | |
| 19 | Michael Hastings: 32,084 (I) Max Solomon: 7,474 |
No candidate | |
| 20 | Iris Martinez (I) |
No candidate | |
| 22 | Cristina Castro: 13,887 Steve Caramelli: 6,906 |
No candidate | |
| 23 | Tom Cullerton (I) |
Seth Lewis |
|
| 25 | Corinne Pierog |
Jim Oberweis (I) |
|
| 26 | No candidate | Dan McConchie: 13,641 Casey Urlacher: 12,236 Martin McLaughlin: 11,418 |
|
| 28 | Laura Murphy (I) |
Mel Thillens |
|
| 29 | Julie Morrison (I) |
Benjamin Salzberg |
|
| 31 | Melinda Bush (I) |
Michael Amrozowicz |
|
| 32 | No candidate | Pamela Althoff (I) |
|
| 34 | Steve Stadelman (I) |
No candidate | |
| 35 | No candidate | Dave Syverson (I) |
|
| 37 | No candidate | Chuck Weaver (I) |
|
| 38 | Christine Benson |
Sue Rezin (I) |
|
| 40 | Toi Hutchinson (I) |
No candidate | |
| 41 | No candidate | Christine Radogno (I) |
|
| 43 | Pat McGuire (I) |
No candidate | |
| 44 | No candidate | Bill Brady (I) |
|
| 46 | David Koehler (I) |
No candidate | |
| 47 | No candidate | Jil Tracy |
|
| 49 | Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant (I) |
Michelle Smith |
|
| 50 | No candidate | Sam McCann: 21,663 (I) Bryce Benton: 19,469 |
|
| 52 | Scott M. Bennett (I) |
Michael P. Madigan |
|
| 53 | No candidate | Jason Barickman (I) |
|
| 55 | No candidate | Dale Righter: 26,108 (I) Mike Parsons: 12,067 |
|
| 56 | William Haine (I) |
No candidate | |
| 58 | Sheila Simon |
Paul Schimpf: 19,649 Sharee Langenstein: 9,641 |
|
| 59 | Gary Forby (I) |
Dale Fowler |
|
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Illinois State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 40 races in the Illinois State Senate in 2016, 13 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 15.5 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Republican candidates in the Illinois State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 14 races. In the six races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.4 percent. Democrats won 26 races in 2016. In the seven races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 13 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Five of the 13 contested races in 2016—38.5 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. One race saw a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. Democrats won four races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Illinois State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 23 D 1.4 percent District 25 R 9.3 percent District 28 D 7.0 percent District 31 D 8.1 percent District 49 D 5.5 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Illinois State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 35 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 10 winning Illinois State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 14.1 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Illinois State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 11 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the four races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 19.7 percent. 24 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the six races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 10.3 percent. |
Illinois State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 26 13.0 percent 24 10.3 percent 18 19 73.1 percent Republican 14 18.4 percent 11 19.7 percent 7 8 57.1 percent Total 40 15.5 percent 35 14.1 percent 25 27 67.5 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Illinois State Senate districts in 2016.
| Illinois State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | Unopposed |
| District 2 | D | Unopposed |
| District 4 | D | Unopposed |
| District 5 | D | Unopposed |
| District 7 | D | Unopposed |
| District 8 | D | Unopposed |
| District 10 | D | Unopposed |
| District 11 | D | Unopposed |
| District 13 | D | Unopposed |
| District 14 | D | Unopposed |
| District 16 | D | Unopposed |
| District 17 | D | Unopposed |
| District 19 | D | Unopposed |
| District 20 | D | Unopposed |
| District 22 | D | 28.9 percent |
| District 23 | D | 1.4 percent |
| District 25 | R | 9.3 percent |
| District 26 | R | 18.4 percent |
| District 28 | D | 7.0 percent |
| District 29 | D | 18.2 percent |
| District 31 | D | 8.1 percent |
| District 32 | R | 35.2 percent |
| District 34 | D | Unopposed |
| District 35 | R | Unopposed |
| District 37 | R | Unopposed |
| District 38 | R | 15.8 percent |
| District 40 | D | Unopposed |
| District 41 | R | Unopposed |
| District 43 | D | Unopposed |
| District 44 | R | Unopposed |
| District 46 | D | Unopposed |
| District 47 | R | Unopposed |
| District 49 | D | 5.5 percent |
| District 50 | R | Unopposed |
| District 52 | D | 21.9 percent |
| District 53 | R | Unopposed |
| District 55 | R | Unopposed |
| District 56 | D | Unopposed |
| District 58 | R | 21.1 percent |
| District 59 | R | 10.3 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Illinois elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Illinois in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| November 30, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for established party candidates | |
| January 14, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in candidates for the primary election | |
| January 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | December quarterly report due | |
| March 15, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| April 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | March quarterly report due | |
| June 27, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for new political party candidates and independent candidates | |
| July 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | June quarterly report due | |
| September 8, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in candidates for the general election | |
| October 17, 2016 | Campaign finance | September quarterly report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 17, 2017 | Campaign finance | December quarterly report due | |
| Source: Illinois State Board of Elections, "Election and Campaign Finance Calendar 2016," accessed August 7, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 27 of the 40 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 19 Democrats and eight Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 13 of the 40 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
Four incumbents faced primary competition on March 15. Five incumbents did not seek re-election and another 31 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Five incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 35 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, two Republicans and three Democrats, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index — the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates — showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. In states with elections in 2014, fewer general elections between partisan candidates were held, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition, and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to be statistically less competitive in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Illinois' rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Illinois General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 10.2% | 11.4% | 39.4% | 20.3 | 16 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Illinois in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Illinois State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 28 | $16,470,520 |
| 2012 | 111 | $50,748,104 |
| 2010 | 45 | $22,081,653 |
| 2008 | 74 | $31,295,645 |
| 2006 | 77 | $33,806,545 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Illinois, at $588,233 per candidate, is ranked No.1 out of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
Article IV of the Illinois Constitution states: "To be eligible to serve as a member of the General Assembly, a person must be a United States citizen, at least 21 years old, and for the two years preceding his election or appointment a resident of the district which he is to represent. In the general election following a redistricting, a candidate for the General Assembly may be elected from any district which contains a part of the district in which he resided at the time of the redistricting and re-elected if a resident of the new district he represents for 18 months prior to re-election."[7]
Candidates removed from the ballot
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Illinois General Assembly, "Constitution of the State of Illinois," accessed May 26, 2015(Article IV, Section 2a)
- ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Election and Campaign Finance Calendar," accessed November 30, 2015
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Illinois," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Illinois General Assembly, "Illinois Constitution," accessed March 28, 2014
