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California State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 California Senate Elections | |
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| Primary | June 7, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
A total of 20 seats out of the 40 seats in the California State Senate were up for election in 2016. California state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years. Democrats gained one seat in the November 2016 general election.
Introduction
Elections for the California State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on June 7, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was February 25, 2016, for candidates filing with signatures. The deadline for candidates using a filing fee to qualify was March 11, 2016.[2]
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the California State Senate:
| California State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 26 | 27 | |
| Republican Party | 13 | 13 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 40 | 40 | |
Retired incumbents
Nine incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Lois Wolk | Senate District 3 | |
| Loni Hancock | Senate District 9 | |
| Mark Leno | Senate District 11 | |
| Sharon Runner | Senate District 21 | |
| Carol Liu | Senate District 25 | |
| Fran Pavley | Senate District 27 | |
| Bob Huff | Senate District 29 | |
| Isadore Hall, III | Senate District 35 | |
| Martin Block | Senate District 39 |
Note: Sharon Runner (R) died on July 14, 2016.
2016 election competitiveness
California sees a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well California performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the California State Senate, there were 26 Democratic incumbents and 14 Republican incumbents. Four incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were two primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the California State Assembly, there were 52 Democratic incumbents and 28 Republican incumbents. Eleven state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were eight primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the top-two primary system, an incumbent is considered to have primary opposition when he or she faces two or more opponents in the primary election.
- There were 27 districts in both chambers where an incumbent did not run for re-election. Of those 27 open seats, 19 were caused by term limits. Additionally, one vacant seat was previously held by an incumbent who was termed-out in 2016.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in California can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 California Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | Rob Rowen: 161,502 | Ted Gaines: 287,314 (I) |
|
| 3 | Bill Dodd: 207,927 Mariko Yamada: 149,701 |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Cathleen Galgiani: 174,847 (I) |
Alan Nakanishi: 133,604 | |
| 7 | Steve Glazer: 270,485 (I) |
Joseph Alexander Rubay: 135,122 | |
| 9 | Nancy Skinner: 236,133 Sandré Swanson: 143,573 |
No candidate | |
| 11 | Jane Kim: 201,316 Scott Wiener: 209,462 |
No candidate | |
| 13 | Gerald Hill: 296,400 (I) |
Rick Ciardella: 94,269 | |
| 15 | James Beall Jr.: 196,089 (I) Nora Campos: 117,442 |
No candidate | |
| 17 | Bill Monning: 268,806 (I) |
Palmer Kain: 141,339 | |
| 19 | Hannah-Beth Jackson: 224,834 (I) |
Colin Patrick Walch: 131,598 | |
| 21 | Johnathon Ervin: 142,886 | Scott Wilk: 160,043 |
|
| 23 | Ronald J. O'Donnell: 141,533 | Mike Morrell: 184,470 (I) |
|
| 25 | Anthony Portantino, Jr.: 218,242 |
Michael D. Antonovich: 159,014 | |
| 27 | Henry Stern: 218,655 |
Steve Fazio: 172,827 | |
| 29 | Josh Newman: 160,230 |
Ling-Ling Chang: 157,732 | |
| 31 | Richard Roth: 167,574 (I) |
Richard Reed: 109,238 | |
| 33 | Ricardo Lara: 177,971 (I) |
No candidate | Honor Robson: 48,316 (L) |
| 35 | Steven Bradford: 135,353 Warren Furutani: 117,455 |
No candidate | |
| 37 | Ari Grayson: 172,455 | John Moorlach: 228,480 (I) |
|
| 39 | Toni Atkins: 258,686 |
John Renison: 155,053 | |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified eight notable California state primary races in 2016, three of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable California races »
Primary contests
- Three Democrats and one Republican competed for the district's open seat.
- ☑ Bill Dodd (D) ☑ Mariko Yamada (D) ☐ Gabe Griess (D) ☐ Greg Coppes (R)
- Three Democrats and one Republican competed for the district's open seat.
- ☑ Nancy Skinner (D) ☑ Sandre Swanson (D) ☐ Katherine Welch (D) ☐ Rich Kinney (R)
- Five Democrats and one Republican competed for the district's open seat.
- ☐ Shawn Bayliss (D) ☐ Janice Kamenir-Reznik (D) ☐ David Pollock (D) ☑ Henry Stern (D)
☐ George Christopher Thomas (D) ☑ Steve Fazio (R)
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the California State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. All 20 races in the California State Senate in 2016 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 21.1 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Democratic candidates in the California State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 16 races in 2016. In the 16 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 22.6 percent. Republicans won four races. In the four races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 15.2 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Four of the 20 contested races in 2016—20 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Two races saw a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. Democrats won three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less and Republicans won one. |
California State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 11 D 2.0 percent District 21 R 5.7 percent District 29 D 0.8 percent District 35 D 7.1 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the California State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 11 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 11 winning California Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 28.6 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the California State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. Eight Democratic incumbents won reelection. In the eight races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 32.4 percent. Three Republican incumbents won reelection. In the three races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.4 percent. |
California State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 16 22.6 percent 8 32.4 percent 0 0 None Republican 4 15.2 percent 3 18.4 percent 0 0 None Total 20 21.2 percent 11 28.6 percent 0 0 None
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in California State Senate districts in 2016.
| California State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 28.0 percent |
| District 3 | D | 16.3 percent |
| District 5 | D | 13.4 percent |
| District 7 | D | 33.4 percent |
| District 9 | D | 24.4 percent |
| District 11 | D | 2.0 percent |
| District 13 | D | 51.7 percent |
| District 15 | D | 25.1 percent |
| District 17 | D | 31.1 percent |
| District 19 | D | 26.2 percent |
| District 21 | R | 5.7 percent |
| District 23 | R | 13.2 percent |
| District 25 | D | 15.7 percent |
| District 27 | D | 11.7 percent |
| District 29 | D | 0.8 percent |
| District 31 | D | 21.1 percent |
| District 33 | D | 57.3 percent |
| District 35 | D | 7.1 percent |
| District 37 | R | 14.0 percent |
| District 39 | D | 25.1 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: California elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in California in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| February 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Semi-annual report due | |
| February 25, 2016 | Ballot access | Close of signature in lieu of filing fee period for voter-nominated offices | |
| March 11, 2016 | Ballot access | Close of declaration of candidacy and nomination paper period for voter-nominated offices | |
| April 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-election report due | |
| May 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-election report due | |
| August 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Semi-annual report due | |
| June 7, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Sources: California Secretary of State, "Key Dates and Deadlines," accessed January 11, 2016 California Fair Political Practices Commission, "Filing Schedule for State Candidate Controlled Committees Listed on the June 7, 2016 Ballot," accessed January 11, 2016 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 6 of the 20 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. Six Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 14 (70.0%) of the 20 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
Six incumbents faced primary competition on June 7. Nine incumbents did not seek re-election and another 5 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Nine incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while eleven incumbents ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, two Republicans and seven Democrats, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The California State Senate has been a term-limited state senate since California voters approved Proposition 140 in 1990. In 2012, California voters approved Proposition 28, which reduced the total number of years a politician can serve in the California State Legislature from 14 years to 12 years. It permits a politician to serve in either or both chambers of the legislature for a maximum of 12 years. The changes did not apply to any legislator who was already in office at the time that the initiative was approved; the rules governing the terms of those who are in the California State Legislature as of June 5, 2012, are calculated under the previous rules.
There were 40 California State Senators. In 2016, six who were current members, five Democrats and one Republican, were ineligible to run for re-election in November.
The state senators who were term-limited in 2016 were:
Democrats (5):
Republicans (1):
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details California's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| California Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 33.0% | 64.2% | 93.0% | 63.4 | 1 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in California in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| California State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 76 | $39,670,925 |
| 2012 | 58 | $35,030,609 |
| 2010 | 63 | $29,523,707 |
| 2008 | 59 | $38,351,907 |
| 2006 | 63 | $31,835,398 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. California, at $521,986 per candidate, is ranked two of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
A candidate shall:
- A. Be at least 30 years of age, a U.S. citizen for nine years, and a resident of California when elected. U.S. Const. Art. I, §3
- B. Have a valid voter registration affidavit on file in the county of residence at the time nomination papers are obtained. §201
- C. Satisfy the following registration requirements:
- 1. Be registered with the political party whose nomination he or she is seeking for not less than three months immediately prior to the time the declaration of candidacy is presented to the county elections official or, if eligible to register for less than three months, for as long as he or she has been eligible to register to vote in California. §8001(a)(1)
- 2. Not have been registered as affiliated with any other qualified political party within twelve months immediately prior to the filing of the declaration of candidacy. §8001(a)(2)
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Key Dates and Deadlines," accessed April 18, 2017
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in California," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
