Delaware State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Delaware Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | September 13, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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A total of 11 seats out of the 21 seats in the Delaware State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained one seat in the chamber after the November 2016 election. Democrats lost an additional seat when state Sen. Bethany Hall-Long (D) won election in the lieutenant governor's race, leaving the chamber split 10 to 10. A special election to fill the vacancy left by Hall-Long took place on February 25, 2017. The race for Hall-Long's District 10 seat in 2014 was competitive, with a 2.2 percent margin of victory. Read more about the special election on February 25, 2017, here.
Introduction
Elections for the Delaware State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on September 13, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was July 12, 2016.
Delaware state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years. In the first election after redistricting, half of the senators will run for two-year terms and the other half will run for four-year terms.
Filed candidates
John Daniello, the state party chairman of the Democratic Party of Delaware, sent a letter to every filed statewide or local Democratic candidate across 2016’s races asking them to reconsider their campaign and their chances of winning. Candidate filing did not end until July 12, but over 60 Democrats had filed their candidacy before the letter was sent on July 1, 2016. Daniello believed that the number of candidates running was too high and "encourages candidates to give a 'second and third thought' to their candidacy, and tells them there is 'no room for vanity campaigns, either statewide or local.'"[1]
At the time of the filing deadline, a total of 19 candidates, 11 Democrats and eight Republicans, filed to run in the 2016 election for the Delaware State Senate. Two Democratic primaries were held, one of which involved an incumbent. Democrats contested 9 of the 11 seats that were up for election in 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Delaware State Senate:
| Delaware State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 12 | 11[2] | |
| Republican Party | 9 | 10 | |
| Vacancy | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 21 | 21 | |
Retired incumbents
- Karen Peterson (D) of District 9 did not run for re-election.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Delaware Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | Harris McDowell: 11,858 (I) |
James Spadola: 9,195 | |
| 5 | Denise Bowers: 9,596 | Catherine Cloutier: 14,083 (I) |
|
| 7 | Patricia Blevins: 9,398 (I) | Anthony Delcollo: 9,604 |
|
| 8 | David Sokola: 8,862 (I) |
Meredith Chapman: 8,115 | David Chandler: 462 (G) |
| 9 | Jack Walsh: 13,500 |
No candidate | |
| 12 | Nicole Poore: 18,961 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 13 | David McBride: 14,503 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 14 | Bruce Ennis: 13,454 (I) |
Carl Pace: 9,138 | |
| 15 | No candidate | David G. Lawson: 15,036 (I) |
|
| 19 | No candidate | Brian Pettyjohn: 14,003 (I) |
|
| 20 | Perry J. Mitchell: 6,831 | Gerald Hocker: 17,908 (I) |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
| 2016 Delaware Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | Joseph McCole: 1,596 Harris McDowell: 3,876 (I) |
James Spadola |
|
| 5 | Denise Bowers |
Catherine Cloutier (I) |
|
| 7 | Patricia Blevins (I) |
Anthony Delcollo |
|
| 8 | David Sokola (I) |
Meredith Chapman |
|
| 9 | Caitlin Olsen: 1,022 Jack Walsh: 1,364 |
No candidate | |
| 12 | Nicole Poore (I) |
No candidate | |
| 13 | David McBride (I) |
No candidate | |
| 14 | Bruce Ennis (I) |
Carl Pace |
|
| 15 | No candidate | David G. Lawson (I) |
|
| 19 | No candidate | Brian Pettyjohn (I) |
|
| 20 | Perry J. Mitchell |
Gerald Hocker (I) |
|
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Delaware State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 11 races in the Delaware State Senate in 2016, six were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 16.8 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Republican candidates in the Delaware State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won five races. In the three races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 21.6 percent. Democrats won six races in 2016. In the three races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 12 percent. |
| Each party won a single race where the margin of victory was less than 10 percentage points. Two of the six contested races in 2016—33.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Democrats won the District 8 race and Republicans won the District 7 race. |
Delaware State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 7 R 1.1 percent District 8 D 4.3 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Delaware State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Nine incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the five winning Delaware State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 20 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Delaware State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Four Republican incumbents won re-election. In the two races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 31.9 percent. Five Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the three races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 12 percent. |
Delaware State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 6 12.0 percent 5 12.0 percent 2 3 50.0 percent Republican 5 21.6 percent 4 31.9 percent 2 2 40.0 percent Total 11 16.8 percent 9 20.0 percent 4 5 45.5 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Delaware State Senate districts in 2016.
| Delaware State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 12.7 percent |
| District 5 | R | 19.0 percent |
| District 7 | R | 1.1 percent |
| District 8 | D | 4.3 percent |
| District 9 | D | Unopposed |
| District 12 | D | Unopposed |
| District 13 | D | Unopposed |
| District 14 | D | 19.1 percent |
| District 15 | R | Unopposed |
| District 19 | R | Unopposed |
| District 20 | R | 44.8 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Delaware elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Delaware in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Independent candidates can begin circulating petitions | |
| February 26, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for presidential candidates | |
| March 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for school board candidates | |
| April 26, 2016 | Election date | Presidential primary election | |
| May 10, 2016 | Election date | School board elections | |
| July 12, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for statewide and all other offices | |
| July 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day that filed candidates may withdraw or file for a different office | |
| July 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day that independent candidates can circulate petitions | |
| August 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for minor parties to select their candidates by convention | |
| August 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day primary report due | |
| August 23, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for minor parties to register the required number of voters to place candidates on the general election ballot | |
| September 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for major parties to file nomination certificates for offices for which no party members filed; deadline for minor parties to file nomination certificates | |
| September 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for independent candidates | |
| September 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | 8-day primary report due | |
| September 13, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in candidates | |
| October 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day general report due | |
| November 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | 8-day general report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Source: Delaware State Election Commissioner, "2016 Delaware Election Calendar," accessed June 5, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 5 of the 11 seats that were up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of three Democrats and two Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 6 (54.5%) of the 11 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
One incumbent faced primary competition on September 13. One incumbent did not seek re-election and another 9 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
One incumbent senator did not run for re-election, while 10 incumbents ran for re-election. The one retiring incumbent, a Democrat, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Delaware's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Delaware General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 4.0% | 18.4% | 58.9% | 27.1 | 29 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Delaware in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Delaware State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 22 | $1,089,970 |
| 2012 | 52 | $2,089,971 |
| 2010 | 19 | $722,153 |
| 2008 | 21 | $1,317,881 |
| 2006 | 22 | $1,055,951 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Delaware, at $49,544 per candidate, is ranked 33 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
Article II, Section 3 of the Delaware Constitution states: "No person shall be a Senator who shall not have attained the age of twenty-seven years and have been a citizen and inhabitant of the State three years next preceding the day of his election and the last year of that term an inhabitant of the Senatorial District in which he shall be chosen, unless he shall have been absent on the public business of the United States or of this State."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Newsworks, "Delaware Democratic Party asks candidates to reconsider decision to run for office," accessed July 12, 2016
- ↑ In the November 2016 elections, Sen. Bethany Hall-Long (D) won election for lieutenant governor of Delaware. She remained in office until shortly before being sworn in on January 17, 2017. The Delaware State Senate began its 2017 legislative session on January 10, 2017.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Delaware," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
