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Wisconsin State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Wisconsin Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 9, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
A total of 16 seats out of the 33 seats in the Wisconsin State Senate were up for election in 2016. Wisconsin state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the Wisconsin State Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These were the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control. Republicans picked up one seat in the 2016 general election and increased their majority to seven seats against the Democrats.
For Democrats to have any chance of flipping the state Senate, they needed a net pick up of three seats out of the 16 seats up for election. Only four seats—Districts 14, 18, 30, and 32—had held competitive elections in recent years. Since only two of those seats were held by Republicans, Democrats needed to find another seat to pick up.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the Wisconsin State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 9, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 1, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Wisconsin State Senate:
| Wisconsin State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 14 | 13 | |
| Republican Party | 18 | 20 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 33 | 33 | |
Incumbents retiring
Three incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Nikiya Harris Dodd | Senate District 6 | |
| Rick Gudex | Senate District 18 | |
| Mary Lazich | Senate District 28 |
2016 election competitiveness
Wisconsin saw a drop in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Wisconsin performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Wisconsin State Senate, there were 14 Democratic incumbents and 19 Republican incumbents. One incumbent faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were no primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the Assembly, there were 36 Democratic incumbents and 63 Republican incumbents. Six assembly members faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There was one primary challenge in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Wisconsin can be found below.
Context of the 2016 elections
The Wisconsin State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[2] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) has identified the Wisconsin State Senate as an offensive target. The DLCC set the goal of raising $20 million for 2016 state legislative races. [3][4]
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Assembly District 94 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[5]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 14, Senate District 18, Assembly District 51, and Assembly District 85 in their "2016 Essential Races."[6][7][8]
Out of the state Senate's 33 seats, Democrats controlled 14 seats and Republicans controlled 19 seats. Democrats needed a net pick up of three seats out of the 16 seats up for election to flip the chamber. Only four seats—Districts 14, 18, 30, and 32—held competitive elections in prior years. Since only two of those seats were held by Republicans, Democrats needed to find another seat to pickup.[9] Only eight seats had general election competition on November 8, 2016.
The presidential election likely played a role in down-ballot races in Wisconsin. The Democratic nominee had won Wisconsin the past seven presidential elections.[10] In presidential election years, Democrats tend come out and vote more than in regular election years. Democrats hoped this trend would continue and that it would help them to regain control of the chamber. There was a shift in those trends, with Donald Trump (R) winning the state, likely bolstering Republicans in state legislative races.
Since Gov. Scott Walker (R) wasn't up for re-election until 2018, Republicans maintaining control of both state chambers in 2016 means they would likely be able to pass every piece of legislation agreed upon for the next two years without interference from Democrats.[11]
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified six notable Wisconsin state legislative races in 2016, four of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Wisconsin races »
General election contests
- A moderate Democratic candidate challenged a moderate Republican incumbent in the battle for the Senate.
- ☑ Luther Olsen (Inc.) ☐ Brian Smith
- An open race in a Republican-leaning district attracted a competitive field.
- ☑ Dan Feyen ☐ Mark Harris
- A Republican candidate challenged a vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the battle for the Senate.
- ☑ Dave Hansen (Inc.) ☐ Eric Wimberger
- A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent to a rematch.
- ☑ Jennifer Shilling (Inc.) ☐ Dan Kapanke
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Wisconsin Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | John Powers: 30,796 | Robert Cowles: 57,269 (I) |
|
| 4 | Lena Taylor: 62,099 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 6 | LaTonya Johnson: 60,129 |
No candidate | |
| 8 | No candidate | Alberta Darling: 77,331 (I) |
|
| 10 | Diane Odeen: 32,863 | Sheila Harsdorf: 56,496 (I) |
|
| 12 | Bryan Van Stippen: 33,713 | Tom Tiffany: 57,273 (I) |
|
| 14 | Brian Smith: 35,555 | Luther Olsen: 47,294 (I) |
|
| 16 | Mark Miller: 77,047 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18 | Mark Harris: 36,366 | Dan Feyen: 46,076 |
|
| 20 | No candidate | Duey Stroebel: 79,743 (I) |
|
| 22 | Robert Wirch: 50,841 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 24 | Julie Lassa: 41,091 (I) | Patrick Testin: 45,139 |
|
| 26 | Fred Risser: 95,246 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 28 | No candidate | Dave Craig: 70,269 |
|
| 30 | Dave Hansen: 40,214 (I) |
Eric Wimberger: 38,175 | |
| 32 | Jennifer Shilling: 43,570 (I) |
Dan Kapanke: 43,514 | Chip DeNure: 2,093 (Integrity Party) |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
| 2016 Wisconsin Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | John Powers |
Robert Cowles (I) |
|
| 4 | Lena Taylor: 11,454 (I) Mandela Barnes: 7,433 |
No candidate | |
| 6 | Thomas Harris: 3,166 Michael Bonds: 3,022 LaTonya Johnson: 9,583 |
No candidate | |
| 8 | No candidate | Alberta Darling (I) |
|
| 10 | Diane Odeen |
Sheila Harsdorf (I) |
|
| 12 | Bryan Van Stippen |
Tom Tiffany (I) |
|
| 14 | Brian Smith |
Luther Olsen (I) |
|
| 16 | Mark Miller (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18 | John Lemberger: 1,758 Mark Harris: 5,165 |
Dan Feyen: 5,225 Mark Elliott: 4,108 |
|
| 20 | No candidate | Duey Stroebel (I) |
|
| 22 | Robert Wirch (I) |
No candidate | |
| 24 | Julie Lassa (I) |
Patrick Testin |
|
| 26 | Fred Risser (I) |
No candidate | |
| 28 | No candidate | Dave Craig |
|
| 30 | Dave Hansen (I) |
Eric Wimberger |
|
| 32 | Jared Landry Jennifer Shilling (I) |
John Sarnowski: 601 Dan Kapanke: 5,754 |
Chip DeNure (The Integrity Party) |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Write-in candidate
- Dmitry Becker (R), District 28
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Wisconsin State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 16 races in the Wisconsin State Senate in 2016, eight were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 14.5 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[12]
| Republican candidates in the Wisconsin State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won nine races. In the six races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.8 percent. Democrats won seven races in 2016. In the two races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 1.3 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Three of the eight contested races in 2016—37.5 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Three races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won two races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Wisconsin State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 24 R 4.7 percent District 30 D 2.6 percent District 32 D 0.1 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Wisconsin State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Twelve incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the six winning Wisconsin State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 16.5 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Wisconsin State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Six Republican incumbents won re-election. In the four races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 24.1 percent. Six Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the two races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 1.3 percent. |
Wisconsin State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[13] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[13] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 7 1.3 percent 6 1.3 percent 4 5 71.4 percent Republican 9 18.8 percent 6 24.1 percent 2 3 33.3 percent Total 16 14.5 percent 12 16.5 percent 6 8 50.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Wisconsin State Senate districts in 2016.
| Wisconsin State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 2 | R | 30.1 percent |
| District 4 | D | Unopposed |
| District 6 | D | Unopposed |
| District 8 | R | Unopposed |
| District 10 | R | 26.5 percent |
| District 12 | R | 25.9 percent |
| District 14 | R | 14.2 percent |
| District 16 | D | Unopposed |
| District 18 | R | 11.8 percent |
| District 20 | R | Unopposed |
| District 22 | D | Unopposed |
| District 24 | R | 4.7 percent |
| District 26 | D | Unopposed |
| District 28 | R | Unopposed |
| District 30 | D | 2.6 percent |
| District 32 | D | 0.1 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Wisconsin elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Wisconsin in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 5, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for candidates to file nomination papers, declarations of candidacy and campaign registration statements for the spring election | |
| January 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | January continuing report due | |
| February 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | Spring pre-primary report due | |
| March 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Spring pre-election report due | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for candidates to file nomination papers, declarations of candidacy and campaign registration statements for the general election | |
| July 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | July continuing report due | |
| August 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Fall partisan primary report due | |
| August 9, 2016 | Election date | State partisan primary election | |
| September 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Fourth Tuesday in September report due | |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | Fall general election report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Sources: Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "Calendar of Election and Campaign Events," accessed January 11, 2016 Wisconsin Government Accountability Board, "New Campaign Finance Laws Effective January 1, 2016," December 21, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In eight of the 16 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of five Democrats and three Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 8 (50.0 percent) of the 16 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
One incumbent faced primary competition on August 9. Three incumbents did not seek re-election and another twelve incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Three incumbents did not run for re-election, while 13 (81.25 percent) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, one Democrat and two Republicans, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Wisconsin's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Wisconsin Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 22.4% | 12.2% | 51.7% | 28.8 | 26 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Wisconsin in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[14]
| Wisconsin State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 40 | $4,476,095 |
| 2012 | 53 | $5,461,279 |
| 2010 | 41 | $4,801,979 |
| 2008 | 42 | $4,468,274 |
| 2006 | 52 | $4,612,208 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Wisconsin, at $111,902 per candidate, is ranked 19 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[14][15]
Qualifications
Section 6 of Article 4 of the Wisconsin Constitution states: "No person shall be eligible to the legislature who shall not have resided one year within the state, and be a qualified elector in the district which he may be chosen to represent."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces State Legislative Election Targets for 2015-2016," accessed October 27, 2015
- ↑ DLCC, "DLCC Launches Advantage 2020 as the Key to Success in the Next Round of Redistricting -- $70 Million-Plus Effort Starting with the 2014 Cycle," accessed March 30, 2016
- ↑ AP - The Big Story, "Big spending expected for state legislative races in 2016," November 7, 2015
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ DLCC, "DLCC Releases Final, Expanded Installment of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ Wisconsin Realtors Association, "Will the GOP-controlled state Senate be Competitive in 2016?" accessed September 15, 2016
- ↑ wsau.com, "Wisconsin's political scene takes shape for fall," accessed September 15, 2016
- ↑ Daily Citizen, "A handful of state legislative races are competitive," accessed October 12, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Wisconsin," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
