Indiana State Senate elections, 2016
| 2016 Indiana Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | May 3, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
|---|---|
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Twenty-five of 50 total seats were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained one seat in the November 2016 general election.
Introduction
Elections for the Indiana State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on May 3, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was February 5, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Indiana State Senate:
| Indiana State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 10 | 9 | |
| Republican Party | 40 | 41 | |
| Total | 50 | 50 | |
Retired incumbents
Eight incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Earline Rogers | Senate District 3 | |
| Jim Arnold | Senate District 8 | |
| John Broden | Senate District 10 | |
| Carlin Yoder | Senate District 12 | |
| Scott Schneider | Senate District 30 | |
| Patricia L. Miller | Senate District 32 | |
| Brent Waltz | Senate District 36 | |
| Brent Steele | Senate District 44 |
2016 election competitiveness
Indiana with some improvement in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Indiana performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Indiana State Senate, there were 10 Democratic incumbents and 40 Republican incumbents. One incumbent faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were four primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 29 Democratic incumbents and 71 Republican incumbents. One state representative faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 11 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Indiana can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified six notable Indiana primary races in 2016, two of which were state Senate races.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Indiana races »
Primary contests
- The state Senate President faced a conservative challenger.
- ☑ David Long (I) ☐ John Kessler
- A six-term incumbent faced a primary challenger over education funding.
- ☑ Luke Kenley (I) ☐ Scott Willis
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Indiana Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | Lonnie Randolph (I) |
No candidate | |
| 3 | Eddie Melton |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Jim Harper: 23,628 | Ed Charbonneau: 34,771 (I) |
|
| 7 | Justin Notoras: 14,590 | Brandt Hershman: 36,158 (I) |
|
| 8 | Maxine Spenner: 22,373 | Mike Bohacek: 31,239 |
|
| 9 | No candidate | Ryan Mishler (I) |
|
| 10 | David Niezgodski: 31,011 |
No candidate | Gerard Arthus: 6,370 (L) |
| 12 | Carl Rust: 12,476 | Blake Doriot: 29,301 |
|
| 13 | Justin Kuhnle: 10,872 | Susan Glick: 33,720 (I) |
|
| 16 | Juli Dominguez: 18,110 | David Long: 35,243 (I) |
|
| 18 | No candidate | Randall Head (I) |
|
| 20 | Paula Gilliam: 19,043 | Luke Kenley: 48,651 (I) |
Donald Rainwater: 3,392 (L) |
| 24 | No candidate | John Crane: 47,493 |
Kevin Rogers: 10,694 (L) |
| 28 | Ken Kern: 21,166 | Michael Crider: 38,404 (I) |
Jerry Coverstone: 6 (Ind.) |
| 30 | Pamela Hickman: 33,220 | John Ruckelshaus: 36,848 |
Zach Roberts: 2,564 (L) |
| 32 | Sara Wiley: 20,202 | Aaron Freeman: 31,187 |
Shane Zoellner: 2,172 (L) |
| 33 | Greg Taylor: 42,544 (I) |
No candidate | Jacob Leddy: 5,170 (L) |
| 34 | Jean Breaux (I) |
No candidate | |
| 35 | Phil Webster: 18,655 | R. Michael Young: 26,631 (I) |
|
| 36 | Sean Gorman: 18,375 | Jack Sandlin: 26,696 |
|
| 37 | No candidate | Rodric Bray (I) |
|
| 40 | Mark Stoops (I) |
No candidate | |
| 42 | Randy Howard: 14,085 | Jean Leising: 37,843 (I) |
|
| 44 | Linda Henderson: 15,406 | Eric Koch: 36,875 |
Darin Kinser: 2,029 (L) |
| 50 | No candidate | Vaneta Becker (I) |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
| 2016 Indiana Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | Lonnie Randolph (I) |
No candidate | |
| 3 | Eddie Melton: 12,322 Darren Washington: 7,013 Dave Spott: 1,067 Ethel Williams: 2,246 |
No candidate | |
| 5 | No candidate | Ed Charbonneau (I) |
|
| 7 | No candidate | Brandt Hershman (I) |
|
| 8 | Dan Cruz: 6,219 Maxine Spenner: 6,836 |
Mike Bohacek: 9,099 Allen Stevens: 6,853 |
|
| 9 | No candidate | Ryan Mishler (I) |
|
| 10 | David Niezgodski |
Gerard Arthus: 3,690 Roy Saenz: 3,631 |
Gerard Arthus (L) |
| 12 | No candidate | Blake Doriot: 12,046 Joanna King: 9,013 |
|
| 13 | Justin Kuhnle |
Susan Glick (I) |
|
| 16 | No candidate | David Long: 16,740 (I) John Kessler: 6,159 |
|
| 18 | No candidate | Randall Head (I) |
|
| 20 | Paula Gilliam |
Luke Kenley: 19,851 (I) Scott Willis: 12,826 |
Donald Rainwater (L) |
| 24 | No candidate | John Crane: 15,709 Pete Miller: 12,688 (I) |
|
| 28 | Ken Kern |
Michael Crider (I) |
|
| 30 | Pamela Hickman |
John Ruckelshaus |
Zach Roberts (L) |
| 32 | Sara Wiley |
Aaron Freeman: 15,518 Zachary Taljonick: 2,835 |
Shane Zoellner (L) |
| 33 | Greg Taylor (I) |
No candidate | |
| 34 | Jean Breaux (I) |
No candidate | |
| 35 | Phil Webster |
R. Michael Young (I) |
|
| 36 | Sean Gorman: 4,769 Jesse Kharbanda: 4,732 |
Jack Sandlin: 8,123 Jefferson Shreve: 7,709 |
|
| 37 | No candidate | Rodric Bray (I) |
|
| 40 | Tom Pappas Mark Stoops (I) |
No candidate | |
| 42 | Randy Howard |
Jean Leising (I) |
|
| 44 | Linda Henderson |
Josh Anderson: 8,379 Eric Allan Koch: 16,606 |
|
| 50 | No candidate | Vaneta Becker: 13,633 (I) Jeremy Heath: 5,764 |
|
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Indiana State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 25 races in the Indiana State Senate in 2016, 17 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 36.2 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[1]
| Democratic candidates in the Indiana State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won six races. In the two races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 72.1 percent. Republicans won 19 races in 2016. In the 15 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 31.4 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Two of the 17 contested races in 2016—11.8 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. One race saw a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. Republicans won both races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Indiana State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 30 R 5.0 percent District 36 R 6.6 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Indiana State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 16 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the nine winning Indiana State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 39.7 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Indiana State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. Four Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the one race where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the margin of victory was 78.3 percent. 12 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the eight races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 34.9 percent. |
Indiana State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[2] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[2] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 6 72.1 percent 4 78.3 percent 3 4 66.7 percent Republican 19 31.4 percent 12 34.9 percent 4 4 21.1 percent Total 25 36.2 percent 16 39.7 percent 7 8 32.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Indiana State Senate districts in 2016.
| Indiana State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 2 | D | Unopposed |
| District 3 | D | Unopposed |
| District 5 | R | 19.1 percent |
| District 7 | R | 42.5 percent |
| District 8 | R | 16.5 percent |
| District 9 | R | Unopposed |
| District 10 | D | 65.9 percent |
| District 12 | R | 40.3 percent |
| District 13 | R | 51.2 percent |
| District 16 | R | 32.1 percent |
| District 18 | R | Unopposed |
| District 20 | R | 41.7 percent |
| District 24 | R | 63.2 percent |
| District 28 | R | 28.9 percent |
| District 30 | R | 5.0 percent |
| District 32 | R | 20.5 percent |
| District 33 | D | 78.3 percent |
| District 34 | D | Unopposed |
| District 35 | R | 17.6 percent |
| District 36 | R | 6.6 percent |
| District 37 | R | Unopposed |
| District 40 | D | Unopposed |
| District 42 | R | 45.8 percent |
| District 44 | R | 39.5 percent |
| District 50 | R | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Indiana elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Indiana in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description |
| January 20, 2016 | Campaign finance | Annual 2015 campaign finance reports due |
| February 2, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for major party candidates for governor and the United States Senate to file petitions with county officials for verification |
| February 5, 2016 | Ballot access | Final filing deadline for major party candidates running in the primary |
| April 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary reports due |
| May 3, 2016 | Election date | Primary election |
| June 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent and minor party candidates to file petitions with county officials for verification |
| July 5, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for write-in candidates |
| July 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for independent and minor party candidates |
| October 21, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-election reports due |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election |
| Source: Indiana Election Division, "2016 Indiana Election Calendar," accessed November 25, 2015 Alaska Public Offices Commission, "APOC Annual Calendar," accessed November 25, 2015 | ||
Competitiveness
Candidates with major party opposition
In 10 of the 25 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of five Democrats and five Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 15 of the 25 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Five incumbents, one Democrat and four Republicans, faced primary competition on May 3. Eight incumbents did not seek re-election and another 12 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following incumbent was defeated in the primary election:
- District 24: Pete Miller (R)
Retired incumbents
Eight incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 17 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, five Republicans and three Democrats, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Indiana's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Indiana General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 6.4% | 9.4% | 51.2% | 22.3 | 39 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Indiana in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[3]
| Indiana State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 57 | $6,528,878 |
| 2012 | 55 | $7,013,864 |
| 2010 | 57 | $4,746,410 |
| 2008 | 99 | $4,556,560 |
| 2006 | 84 | $4,782,887 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Indiana, at $114,542 per candidate, is ranked 18 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[3][4]
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the Indiana State Senate, a candidate must be:[5]
- A United States citizen at the time of election.
- Have resided in the state for at least two years and in the senate district for at least one year before the election.
- Be at least twenty-five (25) years old upon taking office.
- Registered to vote in the election district the person seeks to represent not later than the deadline for filing the declaration or petition of candidacy or certificate of nomination.
See also
External links
- Indiana Secretary of State - Primary candidate list
- Indiana Secretary of State - General election candidate list
- Indiana Secretary of State - Primary results
Footnotes
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Indiana," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ 2010 Candidate Guide - Qualifications for Indiana State Senator
