Tennessee State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Tennessee Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 4, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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A total of 16 seats out of the 33 seats in the Tennessee State Senate were up for election in 2016. No changes occurred to the partisan balance of the chamber.
Tennessee state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years.
Introduction
Elections for the Tennessee State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on August 4, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was April 7, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Tennessee State Senate:
| Tennessee State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 5 | 5 | |
| Republican Party | 28 | 28 | |
| Total | 33 | 33 | |
Incumbents retiring
One incumbent senator did not run for re-election in 2016. That incumbent is:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Ron Ramsey | Senate District 4 |
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Tennessee Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | No candidate | Doug Overbey (I) |
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| 4 | No candidate | Jon Lundberg |
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| 6 | No candidate | Becky Duncan Massey (I) |
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| 8 | No candidate | Frank Niceley (I) |
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| 10 | Khristy Wilkinson: 31,043 | Todd Gardenhire: 39,308 (I) |
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| 12 | No candidate | Ken Yager (I) |
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| 14 | Gayle Jordan: 18,259 | Jim Tracy: 53,082 (I) |
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| 16 | Mike Winton: 22,205 | Janice Bowling: 46,846 (I) |
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| 18 | No candidate | Ferrell Haile (I) |
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| 20 | Erin Coleman: 41,172 | Steven Dickerson: 52,966 (I) |
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| 22 | David Cutting: 20,406 | Mark Green: 41,497 (I) |
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| 24 | No candidate | John Stevens (I) |
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| 26 | No candidate | Dolores Gresham (I) |
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| 28 | No candidate | Joey Hensley: 51,251 (I) |
Joey Norman: 17,460 (Ind.) |
| 30 | Sara Kyle (I) |
No candidate | |
| 32 | No candidate | Mark Norris (I) |
|
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
| 2016 Tennessee Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | No candidate | Doug Overbey: 8,126 (I) Scott Williams: 5,155 |
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| 4 | No candidate | John Paul Blevins: 381 Neal Kerney: 2,629 Jon Lundberg: 7,019 Tony Shipley: 2,684 |
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| 6 | No candidate | Becky Duncan Massey (I) |
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| 8 | No candidate | Frank Niceley (I) |
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| 10 | Ty O'Grady: 1,335 Khristy Wilkinson: 2,662 Nick Wilkinson: 2,111 |
Todd Gardenhire (I) |
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| 12 | No candidate | Ken Yager (I) |
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| 14 | Gayle Jordan |
Steve Lane: 1,681 Matt Randolph: 754 Jim Tracy: 10,817 (I) |
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| 16 | Alice Demetreon: 1,414 Mike Winton: 3,342 |
Janice Bowling: 10,235 (I) Michael Shane Wilcher: 2,287 |
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| 18 | No candidate | Ferrell Haile (I) |
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| 20 | Erin Coleman |
Steven Dickerson: 5,222 (I) Ron McDow: 3,490 |
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| 22 | David Cutting |
Mark Green: 6,183 (I) Lori Smith: 1,163 |
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| 24 | No candidate | John Stevens (I) |
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| 26 | No candidate | Dolores Gresham: 9,936 (I) Bob Shutt: 8,889 |
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| 28 | No candidate | Joey Hensley (I) |
Joey Norman (Independent) |
| 30 | Sara Kyle: 7,607 (I) Beverly Marrero: 2,479 |
No candidate | |
| 32 | No candidate | Mark Norris (I) |
|
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Tennessee State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 16 races in the Tennessee State Senate in 2016, six were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 32 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Only Republican candidates in the Tennessee State Senate had contested races in 2016. Republicans won 15 races. In the six races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 32.0 percent. Democrats won one race in 2016. It was unopposed. |
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Tennessee State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 15 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the six winning Tennessee State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 32 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
Tennessee State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 1 Unopposed 1 Unopposed 1 1 100.0 percent Republican 15 32.0 percent 14 32.0 percent 8 9 60.0 percent Total 16 32.0 percent 15 32.0 percent 9 10 62.5 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Tennessee State Senate districts in 2016.
| Tennessee State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 4 | R | Unopposed |
| District 6 | R | Unopposed |
| District 8 | R | Unopposed |
| District 10 | R | 11.8 percent |
| District 12 | R | Unopposed |
| District 14 | R | 48.8 percent |
| District 16 | R | 35.7 percent |
| District 18 | R | Unopposed |
| District 20 | R | 12.5 percent |
| District 22 | R | 34.1 percent |
| District 24 | R | Unopposed |
| District 26 | R | Unopposed |
| District 28 | R | 49.2 percent |
| District 30 | D | Unopposed |
| District 32 | R | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Tennessee elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Tennessee in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| December 1, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for presidential primary candidates | |
| February 23, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary campaign financial disclosure reports for March county primary due | |
| March 1, 2016 | Election date | Presidential preference primary election | |
| April 7, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for partisan primary candidates and independent general election candidates | |
| April 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | First quarter campaign financial disclosure reports due | |
| April 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary campaign financial disclosure reports for May primary due | |
| May 3, 2016 | Election date | County primary election (if applicable) | |
| July 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second quarter campaign financial disclosure reports due | |
| July 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary campaign financial disclosure reports for August primary due | |
| July 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general campaign financial disclosure reports for August general due | |
| August 4, 2016 | Election date | State primary and county general election (if applicable) | |
| October 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | Third quarter campaign financial disclosure reports due | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general campaign financial disclosure reports for November general due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 25, 2017 | Campaign finance | Fourth quarter campaign financial disclosure reports due | |
| Source: Tennessee Secretary of State, "2016 Election Calendar," accessed June 12, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 11 (68.75%) of the 16 seats that were up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 10 Republicans and 1 Democrat were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 5 (31.25%) of the 16 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
A total of seven incumbents faced primary competition on August 4. One incumbent did not seek re-election in 2016 and another 8 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
One incumbent senator did not run for re-election, while 15 incumbents ran for re-election. The one retiring incumbent, a Republican, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Tennessee's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Tennessee General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 10.3% | 25.0% | 38.5% | 24.6 | 33 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Tennessee in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Tennessee State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 49 | $5,667,585 |
| 2012 | 51 | $8,202,562 |
| 2010 | 44 | $5,147,123 |
| 2008 | 39 | $7,588,522 |
| 2006 | 45 | $5,146,861 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Tennessee, at $115,665 per candidate, is ranked 17 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the Tennessee State Senate, a candidate must be:[6]
- A U.S. citizen
- 30 years old before the general election
- A three-year resident of Tennessee before the general election
- A district resident for 1 year prior to the general election
- A qualified voter
- The following situations would eliminate a candidate from qualifying for office:
- Those who have been convicted of offering or giving a bribe, or of larceny, or any other offense declared infamous by law, unless restored to citizenship in the mode pointed out by law;
- Those against whom there is a judgment unpaid for any moneys received by them, in any official capacity, due to the United States, to this state, or any county thereof;
- Those who are defaulters to the treasury at the time of the election, and the election of any such person shall be void;
- Soldiers, seamen, marines, or airmen in the regular army or navy or air force of the United States; and
- Members of congress, and persons holding any office of profit or trust under any foreign power, other state of the union, or under the United States.
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Tennessee," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Qualifications for running for Tennessee Senate
