Maine State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Maine Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | June 14, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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All 35 seats in the Maine State Senate were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained two seats in the November 2016 general election.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the Maine State Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election, as Republicans edged out Democrats by just five seats. These were the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the Maine State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 14, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 15, 2016.[1]
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Maine State Senate:
| Maine State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 15 | 17 | |
| Republican Party | 20 | 18 | |
| Total | 35 | 35 | |
Incumbents retiring
Seven incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Peter Edgecomb | Senate District 1 | |
| Michael Willette | Senate District 2 | |
| Earle McCormick | Senate District 14 | |
| Stanley Gerzofsky | Senate District 24 | |
| Justin Alfond | Senate District 27 | |
| Anne Haskell | Senate District 28 | |
| Linda Valentino | Senate District 31 |
Context of the 2016 elections
The Maine State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[2] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 6 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[3]
Between January 1, 2015, and July 19, 2016, Maine Democrats raised twice as much as Republicans. Nearly 67 percent—or $680,080—of the $1,008,475 raised came from Democrats, according to filings with the Maine Ethics Commission. Senate Democrats raised $369,426 to the Republicans' $151,518, and House Democrats raised $310,654 to the GOP's $176,877. The top donor in each chamber was the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC). In September 2015, the DLCC gave Maine's Senate Democratic Campaign Committee and House Democratic Campaign Committee each $110,000.[4][5] Jim Melcher, a political scientist at the University of Maine-Farmington, said that the DLCC might have given money early because it believed that the Senate could be flipped and also to encourage candidates to run.[4]
Outside of the contribution from the DLCC, Jason Savage, executive director of the Maine Republican Party, believed that fundraising between the two state parties had remained even for this election cycle. Savage said, "I think that speaks to an increased competitiveness among the two. It used to be the Democrats were strong."[4] Savage maintains that while Democratic State and House committees have raised more money in recent elections, Republicans "tend to make more effective use" of their money.[4] Phil Bartlett, chairman of the Maine Democratic Party, said that the DLCC's contributions indicate their eagerness to help Democrats flip the state Senate and regain control of the state legislature. Bartlett said a Democratic legislature would "provide a check on a governor who has caused Maine to lag behind the national economic recovery and who has put Maine in the national spotlight for all the wrong reasons."[4]
2014 campaign contributions
In the 2014 elections, Republican candidates outraised their Democratic opponents by more than $300,000.
- Democratic candidates raised 45 percent—or $1,402,399—and Republican candidates raised 55 percent—or $1,714,653—of the $3,117,052 raised by the 426 candidates.[6]
- Democrats: Forty state Senate candidates raised $740,970, while 159 state House candidates raised $661,429.[6]
- Republicans: Forty-six state Senate candidates raised $859,806, while 181 state House candidates raised $854,847.[6]
2016 election competitiveness
Maine with extremes in multiple aspects of electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Maine performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Maine State Senate, there were 15 Democratic incumbents and 20 Republican incumbents. One Democratic incumbent and one Republican incumbent faced primary opposition in the primary election.
- In the House, there were 78 Democratic incumbents, 69 Republican incumbents, and four independent or unenrolled incumbents. As with the Senate, just one Democratic incumbent and one Republican incumbent faced primary opposition in the primary election.
- In Maine, the number of seats where two major party candidates faced off was among the highest in the nation. However, the state had one of the poorest ratings for incumbents facing primary opposition.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Maine can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified 24 notable Maine state legislative races in 2016, seven of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Maine races »
General election contests
- A Republican state representative and a former Democratic incumbent competed for an open seat vacated by the GOP incumbent.
- ☐ Ricky Long (R) ☑ Michael Carpenter (D)
- The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.
- ☑ Brian Langley (Inc.) (R) ☐ Moira O'Neill (D)
- The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.
- ☑ Michael Thibodeau (Inc.) (R) ☐ Jonathan Fulford (D)
- The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.
- ☐ Chris Johnson (Inc.) (D) ☑ Dana Dow (R)
- The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.
- ☑ Scott Cyrway (Inc.) (R) ☐ Henry Beck (D)
- The Republican candidate that defeated the incumbent faced a former state representative in a closely divided district.
- ☐ Guy Lebida (R) ☑ Eloise Vitelli (D)
- The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.
- ☑ David Woodsome (Inc.) (R) ☐ Andrea Boland (D)
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Maine Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 1 | Troy Dale Jackson: 9,589 |
Timothy Guerrette: 9,018 | |
| 2 | Michael Carpenter: 9,899 |
Ricky Long: 9,013 | |
| 3 | Jeffrey McCabe: 8,557 | Rodney Whittemore: 9,981 (I) |
|
| 4 | Carole Boothroyd: 5,137 | Paul T. Davis: 13,525 (I) |
|
| 5 | James Dill: 12,117 (I) |
Brent Baber: 7,241 | |
| 6 | Rock Alley: 8,057 | Joyce Maker: 10,349 |
|
| 7 | Moira O'Neill: 10,476 | Brian Langley: 13,218 (I) |
|
| 8 | No candidate | Kimberley Rosen (I) |
|
| 9 | Geoffrey Gratwick: 10,962 (I) |
Laurence Willey: 7,911 | |
| 10 | No candidate | Andre Cushing: 11,305 (I) |
Dennis Marble: 8,445 (Ind.) |
| 11 | Jonathan Fulford: 11,138 | Michael Thibodeau: 11,947 (I) |
|
| 12 | David Miramant: 11,608 (I) |
David F. Emery: 10,823 | |
| 13 | Chris Johnson: 10,909 (I) | Dana Dow: 12,131 |
|
| 14 | Shenna Bellows: 9,816 |
Bryan Cutchen: 8,082 | Joseph Pietroski: 4,012 (Ind.) |
| 15 | Henry K. Dilts: 4,516 | Roger Katz: 15,154 (I) |
|
| 16 | Henry Murphy Beck: 8,846 | Scott Cyrway: 10,378 (I) |
|
| 17 | Joanne Dunlap: 5,752 | Thomas Saviello: 14,975 (I) |
|
| 18 | John Patrick: 9,040 (I) | Lisa Keim: 11,603 |
|
| 19 | Joseph Chisari: 7,272 | James Hamper: 13,396 (I) |
|
| 20 | Kimberly Sampson: 8,214 | Eric Brakey: 13,047 (I) |
|
| 21 | Nathan Libby (I) |
No candidate | |
| 22 | Richard Fochtmann: 6,777 | Garrett Mason: 13,774 (I) |
|
| 23 | Eloise Vitelli: 12,038 |
Guy Lebida: 10,712 | |
| 24 | Everett Carson: 14,833 |
Tristam W. Coffin: 10,056 | |
| 25 | Cathy Breen: 15,546 (I) |
Barton Ladd: 11,247 | |
| 26 | William Diamond: 13,081 (I) |
Ryan McDonald: 8,026 | |
| 27 | Benjamin Chipman: 14,929 |
Adam Pontius: 3,562 | Seth Baker: 3,712 (G) |
| 28 | Mark Dion: 15,375 |
Karen Usher: 6,161 | |
| 29 | Rebecca Millett: 13,684 (I) |
No candidate | Martha MacAuslan: 8,196 (Ind.) |
| 30 | Jean-Marie Caterina: 9,960 | Amy Volk: 14,621 (I) |
|
| 31 | Justin Chenette: 12,332 |
Timothy Sevigny: 9,043 | |
| 32 | Susan Deschambault: 11,880 (I) |
Matthew Stone: 8,249 | |
| 33 | Andrea Boland: 7,922 | David Woodsome: 11,672 (I) |
|
| 34 | Jonathan Kilbourn: 10,584 | Ronald Collins: 13,164 (I) |
|
| 35 | Dawn Hill: 14,609 (I) |
Theodor Short: 9,964 | |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Maine State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 35 races in the Maine State Senate in 2016, 33 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 19.7 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[7]
| Republican candidates in the Maine State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 18 races. In the 17 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 20.8 percent. Democrats won 17 races in 2016. In the 16 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.5 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Nine of the 33 contested races in 2016—27.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Four races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won five races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Maine State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 1 D 3.2 percent District 2 D 4.7 percent District 3 R 7.7 percent District 11 R 3.5 percent District 12 D 3.5 percent District 13 R 5.3 percent District 14 D 7.9 percent District 16 R 8.0 percent District 23 D 5.8 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Maine State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 24 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 22 winning Maine State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 21.4 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Maine State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 15 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 14 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 23.2 percent. Nine Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the eight races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.4 percent. |
Maine State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[8] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[8] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 17 18.5 percent 9 18.4 percent 1 1 5.9 percent Republican 18 20.8 percent 15 23.2 percent 1 1 5.6 percent Total 35 19.7 percent 24 21.4 percent 2 2 5.7 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Maine State Senate districts in 2016.
| Maine State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 3.1 percent |
| District 2 | D | 4.7 percent |
| District 3 | R | 7.7 percent |
| District 4 | R | 45.0 percent |
| District 5 | D | 25.2 percent |
| District 6 | R | 12.5 percent |
| District 7 | R | 11.6 percent |
| District 8 | R | Unopposed |
| District 9 | D | 16.2 percent |
| District 10 | R | 14.5 percent |
| District 11 | R | 3.5 percent |
| District 12 | D | 3.5 percent |
| District 13 | R | 5.3 percent |
| District 14 | D | 7.9 percent |
| District 15 | R | 54.1 percent |
| District 16 | R | 8.0 percent |
| District 17 | R | 44.5 percent |
| District 18 | R | 12.4 percent |
| District 19 | R | 29.6 percent |
| District 20 | R | 22.7 percent |
| District 21 | D | Unopposed |
| District 22 | R | 34.1 percent |
| District 23 | D | 5.8 percent |
| District 24 | D | 19.2 percent |
| District 25 | D | 16.1 percent |
| District 26 | D | 24.0 percent |
| District 27 | D | 50.5 percent |
| District 28 | D | 42.8 percent |
| District 29 | D | 25.1 percent |
| District 30 | R | 19.0 percent |
| District 31 | D | 15.4 percent |
| District 32 | D | 18.0 percent |
| District 33 | R | 19.1 percent |
| District 34 | R | 10.9 percent |
| District 35 | D | 18.9 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Maine elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Maine in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| March 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for primary candidates (signatures must be verified by local registrars prior to final filing) | |
| May 25, 2016 | Ballot access | Non-party candidates must file petition signatures with local registrars for verification prior to final filing | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for non-party candidates | |
| June 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | 11-day pre-primary report due | |
| June 14, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| July 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | 42-day post-primary report due | |
| September 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | 42-day pre-general report due | |
| October 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | 11-day pre-general report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 20, 2016 | Campaign finance | 42-day post-general report due | |
| Sources: Maine Secretary of State, "2016 Candidate's Guide to Ballot Access," accessed January 11, 2016 Maine Commission on Governmental Ethics and Election Practices, "All Upcoming Deadlines," accessed January 11, 2016 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In all but four of the 35 districts up for election, there were candidates from both major parties running for election. Two Republicans and two Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Primary challenges
Two incumbents (5.7 percent) faced primary competition on June 14. Seven incumbents (20.0 percent) did not seek re-election and another 26 incumbents (74.2 percent) advanced past the primary without opposition.
- District 23: Incumbent Linda Baker was defeated by Guy Lebida in the Republican primary.
- District 32: Incumbent Susan Deschambault defeated Joanne Twomey in the Democratic primary.
Retired incumbents
Seven incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 28 (80.0 percent) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, four Democrats and three Republicans, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The Maine State Senate has been a term-limited state senate since Maine voters approved Question 1 in 1993. Under this law, state senators can serve no more than four consecutive two-year terms. The Maine State Legislature tried, unsuccessfully, in 2007 to get the state's voters to extend the number of years they could consecutively serve in office by putting the Maine Term Limits Extension act on the ballot. Voters overwhelmingly rejected it by 67 percent of the vote.
There are 35 Maine State Senators. In 2016, Democrats Stanley Gerzofsky and Justin Alfond, were ineligible to run for re-election in November due to term limits.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Maine's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Maine Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 31.7% | 2.3% | 88.2% | 40.7 | 10 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Maine in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[9]
| Maine State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 92 | $1,844,693 |
| 2012 | 98 | $1,640,586 |
| 2010 | 88 | $1,988,803 |
| 2008 | 90 | $1,853,111 |
| 2006 | 89 | $1,986,332 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Maine, at $20,051 per candidate, is ranked 37 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[9][10]
Qualifications
Section 6 of Part 2 of Article 4 of the Maine Constitution states: "The Senators shall be 25 years of age at the commencement of the term, for which they are elected, and in all other respects their qualifications shall be the same as those of the Representatives."[11]
Section 4 of Part 1 of Article 4 of the Maine Constitution states: "No person shall be a member of the House of Representatives, unless the person shall, at the commencement of the period for which the person is elected, have been 5 years a citizen of the United States, have arrived at the age of 21 years, have been a resident in this State one year; and for the 3 months next preceding the time of this person's election shall have been, and, during the period for which elected, shall continue to be a resident in the district which that person represents."[11]
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Politics1.com, "Maine," archived December 31, 2015
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces State Legislative Election Targets for 2015-2016," accessed October 27, 2015
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Portland Press Herald, "Democrats have big fundraising lead in Maine legislative races," accessed August 22, 2016
- ↑ Bangor Daily News, "More than $500,000 pours into Maine’s 2016 legislative races," October 15, 2015
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Follow the Money, "Election Overview: Maine 2014 elections," accessed August 24, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Maine," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 Maine.gov, "Constitution of the State of Maine," accessed March 28, 2014
