Maine State Senate elections, 2016

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2016 Maine
Senate Elections
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PrimaryJune 14, 2016
GeneralNovember 8, 2016
2016 Election Results
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All 35 seats in the Maine State Senate were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained two seats in the November 2016 general election.

A Ballotpedia analysis identified the Maine State Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election, as Republicans edged out Democrats by just five seats. These were the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Democrats fielded unopposed candidates in two districts, while Republicans had two unchallenged candidates.
  • In the seven open seats, all seven seats had general election competition. Three seats were held by Republicans and the other four seats were held by Democrats.
  • In 2014, 11 districts were competitive or mildly competitive when Republicans took control of the chamber.
  • Senate Democrats raised $369,426 to Republicans' $151,518 through July 2016.
  • This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
    Click here to read the full list.

    Introduction

    Elections for the Maine State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 14, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 15, 2016.[1]

    Majority control

    See also: Partisan composition of state senates

    Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Maine State Senate:

    Maine State Senate
    Party As of November 7, 2016 After November 8, 2016
         Democratic Party 15 17
         Republican Party 20 18
    Total 35 35

    Incumbents retiring

    Seven incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:

    Name Party Current Office
    Peter Edgecomb Ends.png Republican Senate District 1
    Michael Willette Ends.png Republican Senate District 2
    Earle McCormick Ends.png Republican Senate District 14
    Stanley Gerzofsky Electiondot.png Democratic Senate District 24
    Justin Alfond Electiondot.png Democratic Senate District 27
    Anne Haskell Electiondot.png Democratic Senate District 28
    Linda Valentino Electiondot.png Democratic Senate District 31

    Context of the 2016 elections

    See also: State legislative battleground chambers, 2016


    The Maine State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target for 2016.[2] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.

    The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 6 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch.”[3]

    Between January 1, 2015, and July 19, 2016, Maine Democrats raised twice as much as Republicans. Nearly 67 percent—or $680,080—of the $1,008,475 raised came from Democrats, according to filings with the Maine Ethics Commission. Senate Democrats raised $369,426 to the Republicans' $151,518, and House Democrats raised $310,654 to the GOP's $176,877. The top donor in each chamber was the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC). In September 2015, the DLCC gave Maine's Senate Democratic Campaign Committee and House Democratic Campaign Committee each $110,000.[4][5] Jim Melcher, a political scientist at the University of Maine-Farmington, said that the DLCC might have given money early because it believed that the Senate could be flipped and also to encourage candidates to run.[4]

    Outside of the contribution from the DLCC, Jason Savage, executive director of the Maine Republican Party, believed that fundraising between the two state parties had remained even for this election cycle. Savage said, "I think that speaks to an increased competitiveness among the two. It used to be the Democrats were strong."[4] Savage maintains that while Democratic State and House committees have raised more money in recent elections, Republicans "tend to make more effective use" of their money.[4] Phil Bartlett, chairman of the Maine Democratic Party, said that the DLCC's contributions indicate their eagerness to help Democrats flip the state Senate and regain control of the state legislature. Bartlett said a Democratic legislature would "provide a check on a governor who has caused Maine to lag behind the national economic recovery and who has put Maine in the national spotlight for all the wrong reasons."[4]

    2014 campaign contributions

    In the 2014 elections, Republican candidates outraised their Democratic opponents by more than $300,000.

    • Democratic candidates raised 45 percent—or $1,402,399—and Republican candidates raised 55 percent—or $1,714,653—of the $3,117,052 raised by the 426 candidates.[6]
    • Democrats: Forty state Senate candidates raised $740,970, while 159 state House candidates raised $661,429.[6]
    • Republicans: Forty-six state Senate candidates raised $859,806, while 181 state House candidates raised $854,847.[6]

    2016 election competitiveness

    Maine with extremes in multiple aspects of electoral competitiveness.

    Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Maine performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »

    CA 2016 Maine.png
    • In the Maine State Senate, there were 15 Democratic incumbents and 20 Republican incumbents. One Democratic incumbent and one Republican incumbent faced primary opposition in the primary election.
    • In the House, there were 78 Democratic incumbents, 69 Republican incumbents, and four independent or unenrolled incumbents. As with the Senate, just one Democratic incumbent and one Republican incumbent faced primary opposition in the primary election.
    • In Maine, the number of seats where two major party candidates faced off was among the highest in the nation. However, the state had one of the poorest ratings for incumbents facing primary opposition.
    • Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
    • The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.


    • More details on electoral competitiveness in Maine can be found below.

    Races we watched

    Ballotpedia identified 24 notable Maine state legislative races in 2016, seven of which were state Senate contests.

    Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Maine races »

    General election contests

    State Senate District 2

    A Republican state representative and a former Democratic incumbent competed for an open seat vacated by the GOP incumbent.
    Ricky Long (R)       Michael Carpenter (D)

    State Senate District 7

    The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.
    Brian Langley (Inc.) (R)       Moira O'Neill (D)

    State Senate District 11

    The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.
    Michael Thibodeau (Inc.) (R)       Jonathan Fulford (D)

    State Senate District 13

    The Democratic incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.
    Chris Johnson (Inc.) (D)       Dana Dow (R)

    State Senate District 16

    The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.
    Scott Cyrway (Inc.) (R)       Henry Beck (D)

    State Senate District 23

    The Republican candidate that defeated the incumbent faced a former state representative in a closely divided district.
    Guy Lebida (R)       Eloise Vitelli (D)

    State Senate District 33

    The Republican incumbent ran for re-election in a closely divided district.
    David Woodsome (Inc.) (R)       Andrea Boland (D)

    List of candidates

    General election

    2016 Maine Senate candidates
    District Democratic Party Democrat Republican Party Republican Other
    1 Troy Dale Jackson: 9,589 Approveda Timothy Guerrette: 9,018
    2 Michael Carpenter: 9,899 Approveda Ricky Long: 9,013
    3 Jeffrey McCabe: 8,557 Rodney Whittemore: 9,981 (I) Approveda
    4 Carole Boothroyd: 5,137 Paul T. Davis: 13,525 (I) Approveda
    5 James Dill: 12,117 (I) Approveda Brent Baber: 7,241
    6 Rock Alley: 8,057 Joyce Maker: 10,349 Approveda
    7 Moira O'Neill: 10,476 Brian Langley: 13,218 (I) Approveda
    8 No candidate Kimberley Rosen (I) Approveda
    9 Geoffrey Gratwick: 10,962 (I) Approveda Laurence Willey: 7,911
    10 No candidate Andre Cushing: 11,305 (I) Approveda Dennis Marble: 8,445 (Ind.)
    11 Jonathan Fulford: 11,138 Michael Thibodeau: 11,947 (I) Approveda
    12 David Miramant: 11,608 (I) Approveda David F. Emery: 10,823
    13 Chris Johnson: 10,909 (I) Dana Dow: 12,131 Approveda
    14 Shenna Bellows: 9,816 Approveda Bryan Cutchen: 8,082 Joseph Pietroski: 4,012 (Ind.)
    15 Henry K. Dilts: 4,516 Roger Katz: 15,154 (I) Approveda
    16 Henry Murphy Beck: 8,846 Scott Cyrway: 10,378 (I) Approveda
    17 Joanne Dunlap: 5,752 Thomas Saviello: 14,975 (I) Approveda
    18 John Patrick: 9,040 (I) Lisa Keim: 11,603 Approveda
    19 Joseph Chisari: 7,272 James Hamper: 13,396 (I) Approveda
    20 Kimberly Sampson: 8,214 Eric Brakey: 13,047 (I) Approveda
    21 Nathan Libby (I) Approveda No candidate
    22 Richard Fochtmann: 6,777 Garrett Mason: 13,774 (I) Approveda
    23 Eloise Vitelli: 12,038 Approveda Guy Lebida: 10,712
    24 Everett Carson: 14,833 Approveda Tristam W. Coffin: 10,056
    25 Cathy Breen: 15,546 (I) Approveda Barton Ladd: 11,247
    26 William Diamond: 13,081 (I) Approveda Ryan McDonald: 8,026
    27 Benjamin Chipman: 14,929 Approveda Adam Pontius: 3,562 Seth Baker: 3,712 (G)
    28 Mark Dion: 15,375 Approveda Karen Usher: 6,161
    29 Rebecca Millett: 13,684 (I) Approveda No candidate Martha MacAuslan: 8,196 (Ind.)
    30 Jean-Marie Caterina: 9,960 Amy Volk: 14,621 (I) Approveda
    31 Justin Chenette: 12,332 Approveda Timothy Sevigny: 9,043
    32 Susan Deschambault: 11,880 (I) Approveda Matthew Stone: 8,249
    33 Andrea Boland: 7,922 David Woodsome: 11,672 (I) Approveda
    34 Jonathan Kilbourn: 10,584 Ronald Collins: 13,164 (I) Approveda
    35 Dawn Hill: 14,609 (I) Approveda Theodor Short: 9,964
    Notes:
    • An (I) denotes an incumbent.
    • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project.

    Primary election

    2016 Maine Senate primary candidates
    District Democratic Party Democrat Republican Party Republican Other
    1 Troy Dale Jackson Approveda Timothy Guerrette Approveda
    2 Michael Carpenter Approveda Ricky Long Approveda
    Emily Smith
    3 Jeffrey McCabe Approveda Rodney Whittemore (I) Approveda
    4 Carole Boothroyd Approveda Paul T. Davis (I) Approveda
    5 James Dill (I) Approveda Brent Baber Approveda
    6 Rock Alley Approveda William Howard: 539
    Joyce Maker: 1,191 Approveda
    7 Theodore Koffman: 892
    Moira O'Neill: 1,133 Approveda
    Brian Langley (I) Approveda
    8 Emery Deabay Approveda Kimberley Rosen (I) Approveda
    9 Geoffrey Gratwick (I) Approveda Laurence Willey Approveda
    10 No candidate Andre Cushing (I) Approveda Dennis Marble (Independent)
    11 Jonathan Fulford Approveda Michael Thibodeau (I) Approveda
    12 David Miramant (I) Approveda Wendy Pelletier Approveda
    13 Chris Johnson (I) Approveda Dana Dow Approveda
    14 Shenna Bellows: 1,947 Approveda
    Terry Berry: 435
    Maureen Blanchard: 595
    Bryan Cutchen: 853 Approveda
    Joseph Pietroski (Independent)
    15 Marianne Stevens Approveda Roger Katz (I) Approveda
    16 Henry Murphy Beck Approveda Scott Cyrway (I) Approveda
    17 Joanne Dunlap Approveda Thomas Saviello (I) Approveda
    18 John Patrick (I) Approveda Gary Knight Approveda
    19 Joseph Chisari Approveda James Hamper (I) Approveda
    20 Kimberly Sampson Approveda Eric Brakey (I) Approveda
    21 Nathan Libby (I) Approveda William Welch Approveda
    22 Richard Fochtmann Approveda Garrett Mason (I) Approveda
    23 Eloise Vitelli Approveda Guy Lebida: 1,076 Approveda
    Linda Baker (I): 1,034
    24 Everett Carson Approveda Eric Lusk Approveda
    25 Cathy Breen (I) Approveda Barton Ladd Approveda
    26 William Diamond (I) Approveda Ryan McDonald Approveda
    27 Benjamin Chipman: 1,778 Approveda
    Charles Radis: 797
    Diane Russell: 777
    Mark Lockman Approveda Seth Baker (Green) Approveda
    28 Mark Dion: 664 Approveda
    Jill Duson: 590
    Ann Peoples: 264
    Karen Usher Approveda
    29 Rebecca Millett (I) Approveda No candidate Martha MacAuslan (Independent)
    30 Jean-Marie Caterina Approveda Amy Volk (I) Approveda
    31 Justin Chenette: 1,321 Approveda
    Barry Hobbins: 1,043
    William Gombar Approveda
    32 Susan Deschambault (I): 1,926 Approveda
    Joanne Twomey: 330
    Stephen Martin Approveda
    33 Andrea Boland Approveda David Woodsome (I) Approveda
    34 Jonathan Kilbourn Approveda Ronald Collins (I) Approveda
    35 Dawn Hill (I) Approveda Theodor Short Approveda
    Notes:
    • An (I) denotes an incumbent.
    • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project.

    Margins of victory

    The average margin of victory for contested races in the Maine State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 35 races in the Maine State Senate in 2016, 33 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 19.7 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[7]

    Republican candidates in the Maine State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 18 races. In the 17 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 20.8 percent. Democrats won 17 races in 2016. In the 16 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.5 percent.
    More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Nine of the 33 contested races in 2016—27.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Four races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won five races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less.
    The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Maine State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 24 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 22 winning Maine State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 21.4 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent.
    Republican incumbents in the Maine State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 15 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 14 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 23.2 percent. Nine Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the eight races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 18.4 percent.
    Maine State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis
    Party Elections won Average margin of victory[8] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[8] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed
    Democratic 17 18.5 percent 9 18.4 percent 1 1 5.9 percent
    Republican 18 20.8 percent 15 23.2 percent 1 1 5.6 percent
    Total 35 19.7 percent 24 21.4 percent 2 2 5.7 percent

    Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Maine State Senate districts in 2016.

    Important dates and deadlines

    See also: Maine elections, 2016

    The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Maine in 2016.

    Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016
    Deadline Event type Event description
    March 15, 2016 Ballot access Filing deadline for primary candidates (signatures must be verified by local registrars prior to final filing)
    May 25, 2016 Ballot access Non-party candidates must file petition signatures with local registrars for verification prior to final filing
    June 1, 2016 Ballot access Filing deadline for non-party candidates
    June 3, 2016 Campaign finance 11-day pre-primary report due
    June 14, 2016 Election date Primary election
    July 26, 2016 Campaign finance 42-day post-primary report due
    September 27, 2016 Campaign finance 42-day pre-general report due
    October 28, 2016 Campaign finance 11-day pre-general report due
    November 8, 2016 Election date General election
    December 20, 2016 Campaign finance 42-day post-general report due
    Sources: Maine Secretary of State, "2016 Candidate's Guide to Ballot Access," accessed January 11, 2016
    Maine Commission on Governmental Ethics and Election Practices, "All Upcoming Deadlines," accessed January 11, 2016


    Competitiveness

    Candidates unopposed by a major party

    In all but four of the 35 districts up for election, there were candidates from both major parties running for election. Two Republicans and two Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.

    Primary challenges

    Two incumbents (5.7 percent) faced primary competition on June 14. Seven incumbents (20.0 percent) did not seek re-election and another 26 incumbents (74.2 percent) advanced past the primary without opposition.

    Retired incumbents

    Seven incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 28 (80.0 percent) ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, four Democrats and three Republicans, can be found above.

    Impact of term limits

    See also: State legislatures with term limits

    The Maine State Senate has been a term-limited state senate since Maine voters approved Question 1 in 1993. Under this law, state senators can serve no more than four consecutive two-year terms. The Maine State Legislature tried, unsuccessfully, in 2007 to get the state's voters to extend the number of years they could consecutively serve in office by putting the Maine Term Limits Extension act on the ballot. Voters overwhelmingly rejected it by 67 percent of the vote.

    There are 35 Maine State Senators. In 2016, Democrats Stanley Gerzofsky and Justin Alfond, were ineligible to run for re-election in November due to term limits.

    Results from 2014

    See also: 2014 state legislative elections analyzed using a Competitiveness Index

    There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.

    Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.

    Overall Competitiveness
    2010 2012 2014
    Competitiveness Index 36.2 35.8 31.4
    % Open Seats 18.6% 21.2% 17.0%
    % Incumbent with primary challenge 22.7% 24.6% 20.1%
    % Candidates with major party opposition 67.3% 61.7% 57.0%

    The following table details Maine's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.

    Maine Legislature 2014 Competitiveness
    % Open Seats % Incumbent with primary challenge % Candidates with major party opposition Competitiveness Index Overall rank
    31.7% 2.3% 88.2% 40.7 10

    Historical context

    See also: Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

    Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

    F5 Pop. % with uncontested state legislative races.png

    Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

    Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

    Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

    Campaign contributions

    The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Maine in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[9]

    Maine State Senate Donations
    Year Candidates Amount
    2014 92 $1,844,693
    2012 98 $1,640,586
    2010 88 $1,988,803
    2008 90 $1,853,111
    2006 89 $1,986,332

    State comparison

    The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Maine, at $20,051 per candidate, is ranked 37 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[9][10]

    Qualifications

    Section 6 of Part 2 of Article 4 of the Maine Constitution states: "The Senators shall be 25 years of age at the commencement of the term, for which they are elected, and in all other respects their qualifications shall be the same as those of the Representatives."[11]

    Section 4 of Part 1 of Article 4 of the Maine Constitution states: "No person shall be a member of the House of Representatives, unless the person shall, at the commencement of the period for which the person is elected, have been 5 years a citizen of the United States, have arrived at the age of 21 years, have been a resident in this State one year; and for the 3 months next preceding the time of this person's election shall have been, and, during the period for which elected, shall continue to be a resident in the district which that person represents."[11]

    See also

    External links

    Footnotes


    Current members of the Maine State Senate
    Leadership
    Senate President:Matthea Daughtry
    Majority Leader:Teresa Pierce
    Senators
    District 1
    District 2
    District 3
    District 4
    District 5
    District 6
    District 7
    District 8
    District 9
    District 10
    District 11
    District 12
    District 13
    District 14
    District 15
    District 16
    District 17
    District 18
    District 19
    District 20
    District 21
    District 22
    District 23
    District 24
    District 25
    District 26
    District 27
    District 28
    District 29
    District 30
    District 31
    District 32
    District 33
    District 34
    District 35
    Democratic Party (20)
    Republican Party (15)