Wyoming State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Wyoming Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 16, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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A total of 15 seats out of the 30 seats in the Wyoming State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained one seat in the November 2016 general election.
Wyoming state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the senate is up for election every two years.
Introduction
Elections for the Wyoming State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 16, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was May 27, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Wyoming State Senate:
| Wyoming State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 4 | 3 | |
| Republican Party | 26 | 27 | |
| Total | 30 | 30 | |
Incumbents retiring
Six incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Tony Ross | Senate District 4 | |
| Wayne Johnson | Senate District 6 | |
| Phil Nicholas | Senate District 10 | |
| Bernadine Craft | Senate District 12 | |
| Stan Cooper | Senate District 14 | |
| Gerald Geis | Senate District 20 |
2016 election competitiveness
Wyoming sees improvement in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Wyoming performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Wyoming State Senate, there were four Democratic incumbents and 26 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were two primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 9 Democratic incumbents and 51 Republican incumbents. No state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 18 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Wyoming can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified four notable Wyoming state legislative races in 2016, two of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Wyoming races »
Primary contests
- Three Republican candidates competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Anthony Bouchard[1] ☐ Lindi Kirkbride ☐ David Zwonitzer
- Three Republican candidates competed for the open seat vacated by a Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Bob Bayuk ☐ Ron Harvey ☑ Wyatt Agar
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Wyoming Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | William Cullen III: 1,377 | Brian Boner: 8,187 (I) |
|
| 4 | Ken Esquibel: 3,859 | Tara Nethercott: 5,867 |
|
| 6 | No candidate | Anthony Bouchard: 4,670 |
Kym Zwonitzer: 4,314 (Ind.) |
| 8 | Floyd Esquibel: 2,346 (I) | Affie Ellis: 3,638 |
|
| 10 | Narina Nunez: 3,815 | Glenn Moniz: 5,133 |
|
| 12 | Liisa Anselmi-Dalton |
No candidate | |
| 14 | Charlotte Sedey: 1,237 | Fred Baldwin: 6,939 |
|
| 16 | Richard Kusaba: 1,989 | Dan Dockstader: 7,208 (I) |
|
| 18 | No candidate | Henry Coe: 5,682 (I) |
Cindy Baldwin: 4,256 (Ind.) |
| 20 | Mary Jane Norskog: 1,546 | Wyatt Agar: 6,893 |
|
| 22 | No candidate | Dave Kinskey (I) |
|
| 24 | No candidate | Michael Von Flatern (I) |
|
| 26 | Chesie Lee: 1,979 | Eli Bebout: 6,461 (I) |
|
| 28 | Kimberly Holloway: 2,111 | James Anderson: 5,216 (I) |
|
| 30 | Robert Ford: 1,521 | Charles Scott: 5,831 (I) |
|
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
| 2016 Wyoming Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Other | ||
| 2 | William Cullen III |
Brian Boner: 3,565 (I) D. Farmer: 790 |
|
| 4 | Ken Esquibel |
Bill Weaver: 723 David Pope: 1,325 Tara Nethercott: 1,748 |
|
| 6 | No candidate | Anthony Bouchard: 1,137 David Zwonitzer: 1,132 Lindi Kirkbride: 978 |
|
| 8 | Floyd Esquibel (I) |
Affie Ellis |
|
| 10 | Narina Nunez |
Glenn Moniz |
|
| 12 | Liisa Anselmi-Dalton |
No candidate | |
| 14 | Charlotte Sedey |
Don Lamborn: 920 Fred Baldwin: 2,039 |
|
| 16 | Richard Kusaba |
Dan Dockstader (I) |
|
| 18 | No candidate | Henry Coe (I) |
|
| 20 | Mary Jane Norskog |
Bob Bayuk: 599 Ron Harvey: 1,328 Wyatt Agar: 2,508 |
|
| 22 | No candidate | Dave Kinskey (I) |
|
| 24 | No candidate | Michael Von Flatern: 1,652 (I) Rod Mathis: 1,238 |
|
| 26 | Chesie Lee |
Eli Bebout (I) |
|
| 28 | Kimberly Holloway |
James Anderson (I) |
|
| 30 | Robert Ford |
Charles Scott (I) |
|
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Wyoming State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 15 races in the Wyoming State Senate in 2016, 12 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 40.9 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Only Republican candidates in the Wyoming State Senate had contested races in 2016. Republicans won 14 races. In the 12 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 40.9 percent. Democrats won one race in 2016. It was unopposed. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. One of the 12 contested races in 2016—8.3 percent—saw a margin of victory that was 10 percent or less. It was won by a Republican. |
Wyoming State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 6 R 4.0 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Wyoming State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. Eight incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the six winning Wyoming State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 49.4 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Only Republican incumbents in the Wyoming State Senate had contested races in 2016. Republican incumbents won eight races. In the six races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 49.4 percent. No Democratic incumbents won races in 2016. |
Wyoming State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 1 Unopposed 0 Unopposed 0 1 100.0 percent Republican 14 40.9 percent 8 49.4 percent 2 2 14.3 percent Total 15 40.9 percent 8 49.4 percent 2 3 20.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Wyoming State Senate districts in 2016.
| Wyoming State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 2 | R | 71.2 percent |
| District 4 | R | 20.7 percent |
| District 6 | R | 4.0 percent |
| District 8 | R | 21.6 percent |
| District 10 | R | 14.7 percent |
| District 12 | D | Unopposed |
| District 14 | R | 69.7 percent |
| District 16 | R | 56.8 percent |
| District 18 | R | 14.4 percent |
| District 20 | R | 63.4 percent |
| District 22 | R | Unopposed |
| District 24 | R | Unopposed |
| District 26 | R | 53.1 percent |
| District 28 | R | 42.4 percent |
| District 30 | R | 58.6 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Wyoming elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Wyoming in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| May 27, 2016 | Ballot access | Partisan candidate filing deadline | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for new political parties | |
| August 8, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for judicial candidates | |
| August 9, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary report due | |
| August 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for minor and provisional party candidates | |
| August 16, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| August 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | Primary report due | |
| August 29, 2016 | Ballot access | Independent candidate filing deadline | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| November 18, 2016 | Campaign finance | General report due | |
| Sources: Wyoming Secretary of State, "2016 Key Election Dates," accessed June 14, 2015 Wyoming Secretary of State, "Wyoming's Campaign Finance Information System," accessed June 14, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 5 of the 15 seats that were up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 1 Democrat and 4 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 10 (67.0%) of the 15 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Two incumbents faced primary competition on August 16. Six incumbents did not seek re-election and another 7 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Six incumbents did not run for re-election, while 9 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, five Republicans and one Democrat, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Wyoming's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Wyoming Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 14.7% | 42.2% | 33.3% | 30.1 | 21 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Wyoming in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Wyoming State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 30 | $225,652 |
| 2012 | 28 | $324,713 |
| 2010 | 32 | $264,790 |
| 2008 | 37 | $232,874 |
| 2006 | 49 | $372,673 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Wyoming, at $7,522 per candidate, is ranked 42 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Section 2 of Article 3 of the Wyoming Constitution states: "Senators shall be elected for the term of four (4) years and representatives for the term of two (2) years. The senators elected at the first election shall be divided by lot into two classes as nearly equal as may be. The seats of senators of the first class shall be vacated at the expiration of the first two years, and of the second class at the expiration of four years. No person shall be a senator who has not attained the age of twenty-five years, or a representative who has not attained the age of twenty-one years, and who is not a citizen of the United States and of this state and who has not, for at least twelve months next preceding his election resided within the county or district in which he was elected."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Recount had Bouchard defeating Zwonitzer by five votes
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Wyoming," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
