Montana House of Representatives elections, 2016
| 2016 Montana House Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | June 7, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
| 2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 | |
| 2016 Elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
All 100 seats in the Montana House of Representatives were up for election in 2016. No significant changes occurred to political control in the state after the November 2016 election.
Introduction
Elections for the Montana House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election was held on June 7, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 14, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Montana House of Representatives:
| Montana House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 41 | 41 | |
| Republican Party | 59 | 59 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
Incumbents retiring
A total of 31 incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
2016 election competitiveness
Montana saw some improvement in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Montana performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Montana State Senate, there were 21 Democratic incumbents and 29 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There was just one primary challenge in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 41 Democratic incumbents and 59 Republican incumbents. One state representative faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 11 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Montana can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified 17 notable Montana state primary races in 2016, 13 of which were state House contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Montana races »
Primary contests
- Two Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Derek Skees ☐ Jean Barragan
- Three Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Ross Fitzgerald ☐ David Brownell ☐ Charlie Brown
- District 18 featured a candidate rematch between the GOP incumbent and the 2014 challenger.
- ☑ Rob Cook (Inc.) ☐ Ann Morren
- A Republican incumbent challenged the District 19 incumbent.
- ☐ Randy Pinocci (Inc., District 19) ☑ Wendy McKamey (Inc., District 23)
- Two Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Fred Anderson ☐ Sheridan Buck
- Two Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☑ James O'Hara ☐ Darrold Hutchinson
- The Republican incumbent faced a primary challenger backed by business groups.
- ☑ Scott Staffanson (Inc.) ☐ Joel Krautter
- District 38 featured a candidate rematch.
- ☑ Alan Doane (Inc.) ☐ Edward Hilbert
- Three Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Democratic incumbent.
- ☐ Pat Riley ☐ Bruce Hoiland ☑ Barry Usher
- The Republican incumbent faced a primary challenger over infrastructure issues.
- ☑ Daniel Zolnikov (Inc.) ☐ John Bedford
- The Republican incumbent faced a primary challenger over infrastructure issues.
- ☑ Tom Burnett (Inc.) ☐ Mike Houghton
- Two Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☑ Walt Sales ☐ Phil Olson
- The Republican incumbent faced his 2012 and 2014 opponent.
- ☑ Ray Shaw (Inc.) ☐ Robert Wagner
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Montana House of Representatives in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 100 races in the Montana House of Representatives in 2016, 80 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 32 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[2]
| Republican candidates in the Montana House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 59 races. In the 55 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 39.5 percent. Democrats won 41 races in 2016. In the 25 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 15.4 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. 17 of the 80 contested races in 2016—21.3 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Nine races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won nine races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Montana House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 3 D 5.8 percent District 22 R 7.7 percent District 23 D 1.7 percent District 25 R 2.9 percent District 26 D 1.6 percent District 28 D 4.2 percent District 38 R 6.2 percent District 51 R 7.6 percent District 52 R 4.1 percent District 60 D 4.6 percent District 65 R 0.9 percent District 83 D 9.1 percent District 84 D 2.4 percent District 92 R 2.0 percent District 93 D 8.7 percent District 94 D 9.0 percent District 96 R 4.0 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Montana House of Representatives who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 62 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 46 winning Montana House of Representatives incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 33.3 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Montana House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. 34 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 30 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 42.5 percent. 28 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 16 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 16.2 percent. |
Montana House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[3] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[3] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 41 15.4 percent 28 16.2 percent 12 16 39.0 percent Republican 59 39.5 percent 34 42.5 percent 4 4 6.8 percent Total 100 32.0 percent 62 33.3 percent 16 20 20.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Montana House of Representatives districts in 2016.
| Montana House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 45.0 percent |
| District 2 | R | 57.4 percent |
| District 3 | D | 5.8 percent |
| District 4 | R | 54.3 percent |
| District 5 | D | 13.5 percent |
| District 6 | R | 37.9 percent |
| District 7 | R | 30.3 percent |
| District 8 | R | 53.4 percent |
| District 9 | R | 45.4 percent |
| District 10 | R | 46.0 percent |
| District 11 | R | 48.4 percent |
| District 12 | R | 28.8 percent |
| District 13 | R | 93.7 percent |
| District 14 | R | 55.5 percent |
| District 15 | D | Unopposed |
| District 16 | D | Unopposed |
| District 17 | R | 48.7 percent |
| District 18 | R | Unopposed |
| District 19 | R | 45.6 percent |
| District 20 | R | 42.1 percent |
| District 21 | D | Unopposed |
| District 22 | R | 7.7 percent |
| District 23 | D | 1.7 percent |
| District 24 | D | 17.0 percent |
| District 25 | R | 2.9 percent |
| District 26 | D | 1.6 percent |
| District 27 | R | 43.5 percent |
| District 28 | D | 6.9 percent |
| District 29 | R | 60.5 percent |
| District 30 | R | 50.5 percent |
| District 31 | D | Unopposed |
| District 32 | D | Unopposed |
| District 33 | R | 54.2 percent |
| District 34 | R | 55.0 percent |
| District 35 | R | 62.5 percent |
| District 36 | R | 52.0 percent |
| District 37 | R | 70.6 percent |
| District 38 | R | 8.1 percent |
| District 39 | R | 61.8 percent |
| District 40 | R | 32.8 percent |
| District 41 | D | Unopposed |
| District 42 | D | Unopposed |
| District 43 | R | 22.2 percent |
| District 44 | R | 25.8 percent |
| District 45 | R | 38.9 percent |
| District 46 | R | 29.4 percent |
| District 47 | D | 17.0 percent |
| District 48 | D | 10.2 percent |
| District 49 | D | 13.5 percent |
| District 50 | D | 10.6 percent |
| District 51 | R | 7.6 percent |
| District 52 | R | 4.1 percent |
| District 53 | R | 54.3 percent |
| District 54 | R | Unopposed |
| District 55 | R | 49.3 percent |
| District 56 | R | 40.4 percent |
| District 57 | R | 70.1 percent |
| District 58 | R | 26.4 percent |
| District 59 | R | 41.8 percent |
| District 60 | D | 4.6 percent |
| District 61 | D | 14.3 percent |
| District 62 | D | Unopposed |
| District 63 | D | 19.1 percent |
| District 64 | R | 21.4 percent |
| District 65 | R | 0.9 percent |
| District 66 | D | Unopposed |
| District 67 | R | 37.6 percent |
| District 68 | R | 48.7 percent |
| District 69 | R | 53.5 percent |
| District 70 | R | 38.5 percent |
| District 71 | R | Unopposed |
| District 72 | R | 62.4 percent |
| District 73 | D | Unopposed |
| District 74 | D | Unopposed |
| District 75 | R | 17.3 percent |
| District 76 | D | Unopposed |
| District 77 | D | 14.7 percent |
| District 78 | D | 19.9 percent |
| District 79 | D | Unopposed |
| District 80 | R | 50.5 percent |
| District 81 | D | Unopposed |
| District 82 | D | Unopposed |
| District 83 | D | 9.1 percent |
| District 84 | D | 2.4 percent |
| District 85 | R | 46.1 percent |
| District 86 | R | 31.0 percent |
| District 87 | R | Unopposed |
| District 88 | R | 33.4 percent |
| District 89 | D | 18.6 percent |
| District 90 | D | 21.4 percent |
| District 91 | D | Unopposed |
| District 92 | R | 2.0 percent |
| District 93 | D | 8.7 percent |
| District 94 | D | 9.0 percent |
| District 95 | D | 48.1 percent |
| District 96 | R | 4.0 percent |
| District 97 | R | 19.4 percent |
| District 98 | D | 19.3 percent |
| District 99 | D | 19.4 percent |
| District 100 | D | 58.5 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Montana elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Montana in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| March 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering January 1 through February 25)–statewide candidates only | |
| March 14, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for primary candidates | |
| April 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering February 26 through March 27)–statewide candidates only | |
| May 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering March 28 through April 26)–statewide candidates only | |
| May 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering beginning of campaign through April 28)–state district candidates only | |
| May 23, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering April 27 through May 18)–statewide candidates only | |
| May 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering April 29 through May 21)–state district candidates only | |
| May 31, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent, minor party and indigent candidates to submit petitions to county election officials | |
| June 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering May 19 through May 27)–statewide candidates only | |
| June 6, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for independent, minor party and indigent candidates to submit declarations and filing fees to the necessary filing official | |
| June 7, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| June 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering May 28 through June 22)–statewide candidates only | |
| June 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering May 22 through June 22)–state district candidates only | |
| July 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering June 23 through June 26)–statewide candidates only | |
| August 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering June 27 through July 27)–statewide candidates only | |
| September 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering July 28 through August 27)–statewide candidates only | |
| October 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering August 28 through September 26)–statewide candidates only | |
| October 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering June 23 through September 29)–state district candidates only | |
| October 24, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering September 27 through October 19)–statewide candidates only | |
| October 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering September 30 through October 22)–state district candidates only | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering October 20 through October 27)–statewide candidates only | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| November 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering October 28 through November 23)–statewide candidates only | |
| November 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Campaign finance report due (covering October 23 through November 23)–state district candidates only | |
| Source: Montana Secretary of State, "Candidate Information," accessed June 12, 2015 Montana Commissioner of Political Practices, "Statewide Candidates: Candidate Finance Report Calendar: 2015-2016," accessed October 28, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 15 of the 100 districts up for election in 2016, one major party candidate ran unopposed in the general election. A total of 15 Democrats were guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 85 of the 100 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
A total of 12 incumbents faced primary competition on June 7. Thirty-one incumbents did not seek re-election in 2016 and another 57 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The following incumbents were defeated in the primary election:
- District 19: Incumbent Randy Pinocci was defeated by District 23 incumbent Wendy McKamey in the Republican primary.
- District 68: Incumbent Art Wittich was defeated by Bruce Grubbs in the Republican primary.
Retired incumbents
Thirty-one incumbent representatives did not run for re-election, while 69 incumbents ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, 12 Democrats and 19 Republicans, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The Montana House of Representatives has been a term-limited state house since Montana voters approved CI-64 in 1992. C-64 created Section 8 of Article IV of the Montana Constitution, which says that Montana State Representatives cannot serve 8 or more years in any 16-year period.
There are 100 members of the Montana House of Representatives. In 2016, thirteen members, six Democrats and seven Republicans, were ineligible to run again in November.
The state representatives who were term-limited in 2016 were:
|
|
|
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Montana's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Montana Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 36.8% | 23.1% | 84.0% | 48.0 | 5 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Montana in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[4]
| Montana House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 245 | $1,542,315 |
| 2012 | 234 | $1,578,933 |
| 2010 | 237 | $1,662,949 |
| 2008 | 239 | $1,790,750 |
| 2006 | 240 | $1,793,853 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Montana, at $6,295 per candidate, is ranked 42 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[4][5]
Qualifications
Section 4 of Article 5 of the Montana Constitution states: "A candidate for the legislature shall be a resident of the state for at least one year next preceding the general election. For six months next preceding the general election, he shall be a resident of the county if it contains one or more districts or of the district if it contains all or parts of more than one county."[6]
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Montana," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Montana Judicial Branch, "Montana Constitution," accessed March 30, 2014
