Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 8, 2018

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2018 State Election Analysis
All state elections
Statewide ballot measures • State government trifectas • Trifecta vulnerability • Veto-proof state legislatures • Noteworthy third party candidates • Officials seeking other offices • Incumbent win rates
State legislative elections
Battleground chambers • Partisan balance of chambers • Number of state legislators by party • Supermajorities • Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report • Open seats • Incumbents defeated • Races decided by fewer than 100 votes • State legislative seats flipped • State legislative margins of victory
State executive elections
State government triplexes • Partisan balance of governors • Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report • Impact of term limits on state executive elections in 2018 • States with gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections • Prediction markets • Battleground polls
State judicial elections
Federal election analysis
Local election analysis
All election results

Ballotpedia's 8th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes the features of all 6,065 state legislative elections that took place in November 2018. Key findings include:

HIGHLIGHTS
  • 2,046 state legislative elections did not have major party competition; they featured a candidate from just one of the two major political parties.
  • Democratic candidates contested more state legislative elections than in any even-year cycle since 2010; Republicans contested fewer than in any even-year cycle since 2010.
  • 1,194 state legislative incumbents did not seek re-election. A total of 743 were Republicans, 443 were Democrats, and eight were minor party or independent officeholders.
  • Nearly one-fifth of state legislators elected in 2018 were guaranteed to be newcomers.

    • This report is organized into four sections. They are:

    Competitiveness overview

    Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

    Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

    These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

    The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2018 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

    See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections
    State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2018
    2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 AVERAGE
    Competitiveness Index 34.6 35.2 30.8 31.7 36.1 33.7
    Open seats 18.7% 21.9% 16.8% 17.4% 19.7% 18.9%
    Inc. in contested primaries 20.0% 23.3% 19.5% 20.2% 22.2% 21.0%
    Seats with major party competition 65.0% 60.4% 56.0% 57.6% 66.3% 61.1%

    Open seats

    See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2018

    There were 6,065 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2018, in 46 states. Of that total, there were 1,194 open seats, guaranteeing at least 20% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was the second-highest number and percentage of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

    In 2018:

  • There were 443 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were 743 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • There were eight other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing.
  • The total number of open seats—1,194—was the second-highest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010, representing a 16% increase from 2016.



    • Open state legislative seats, 2018
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Other Total
    # %
    House 4,956 362 577 5 944 19.0%
    Senate 1,109 81 166 3 250 22.5%
    Total 6,065 443 743 8 1,194 19.7%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2010 to 2018. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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    Editorial Content
    Geoff Pallay, Director of Editorial Content and Editor-in-Chief • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Norm Leahy, Senior Editor • Daniel Anderson, Managing Editor • Ryan Byrne, Managing Editor • Cory Eucalitto, Managing Editor • Mandy Gillip, Managing Editor • Doug Kronaizl, Local Elections Project Manager • Jaclyn Beran • Marielle Bricker • Joseph Brusgard • Emma Burlingame • Kelly Coyle • Thomas Ellis • Frank Festa • Nicole Fisher • Brianna Hosea • Joseph Greaney • Thomas Grobben • Jaime Healy-Plotkin • Tyler King • Glorie Martinez • Nathan Maxwell • Ellie Mikus • Jackie Mitchell • Ellen Morrissey • Mackenzie Murphy • Kaley Platek • Samantha Post • Adam Powell • Ethan Rice • Spencer Richardson • Victoria Rose • Briana Ryan • Myj Saintyl • Maddy Salucka • Maddie Sinclair Johnson • Abbey Smith • Alexis Thacker • Janie Valentine • Joel Williams • Samuel Wonacott • Trenton Woodcox • Mercedes Yanora
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