Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2018
Updated May 17, 2019
Ballotpedia’s 2018 study of competitiveness in state executive elections revealed the percentage of open seats to be roughly consistent with the average since 2011.
Key sections of analysis on this page include:
- Incumbents not seeking re-election in 2018
- Races without major party competition
- Influence of presidential elections on incumbent departures
- Influence of pivot counties on incumbent departures
State executives act in many capacities according to the powers granted to them by their state's constitution. They are also charged with implementing and enforcing laws made by state legislatures. Of the various types of executive offices, only seven exist in all 50 states: governor, attorney general, superintendent of schools, insurance commissioner, agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner, and public service commissioner.
Other state executive offices include lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, controller, auditor, public lands commissioner, tax commissioner, railroad commissioner, public education commissioner, mine inspector, executive council, state board of equalization, state board of education, and state board of regents.
Defining competitiveness
An election is considered more competitive when the incumbent officeholder is not a candidate for re-election in the general election. This analysis examines both the degree of competitiveness, relative to past election years, and factors that may or may not have contributed to the degree of competitiveness in the current year.
The advantage an incumbent holds over a challenger in a given election is frequently cited in political theory and its impetus frequently debated. For example, data compiled by OpenSecrets.org shows the re-election rate for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives has been 85% or higher for each of the 27 two-year election cycles that occurred between 1964 and 2016; and that from 2006-2016 the re-election rate averaged 92.5%.
Incumbents not seeking re-election, 2011-2018
There were 117 state executive office elections in 2018 where the incumbent did not file for re-election. In numerical terms, this was the largest number of open seats for state executive offices since at least 2011, when Ballotpedia began tracking this number. The previous high for open seats was 74 in 2014, the last year in which an election occurred for many of the same offices being contested in 2018.
There were 303 state executive offices up for re-election and in 186 of those general elections (61.4%) the incumbent was on the ballot again. From 2011 to 2018, 63.6% of incumbents appeared on general election ballots seeking re-election to state executive offices. The 2018 percentage of incumbents running again was generally consistent with the level of competitiveness in 2014, the last time elections were held for most of these offices.
This can be contrasted with the significantly higher percentage of open seats for state executive races in 2016 when just 54.8% of incumbents appeared on general election ballots. Four years earlier in 2012, the last time most of the 2016 offices were contested, 71.3% of incumbents competed to return to their posts.
| Offices up for election | Incumbents seeking re-election | ||
| 2018 | 303 | 186 | 61.4% |
| 2017* | 8 | 3 | 37.5% |
| 2016 | 93 | 51 | 54.8% |
| 2015 | 25 | 16 | 64.0% |
| 2014 | 226 | 152 | 67.3% |
| 2013* | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 94 | 67 | 71.3% |
| 2011 | 26 | 19 | 73.1% |
| 781 | 497 | 63.6% |
*These results were not considered statistically significant due to small sample size.
Source: Ballotpedia
Races without major party competition
When a candidate from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties runs for a state executive office, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. In 2018, 36 of 303 state executive office races (11.9%) did not feature major party competition.
16 races did not feature a Republican candidate. The offices with no Republicans on the ballot and thus likely to be won by Democrats included:
- Lieutenant Governor of California
- California Commissioner of Insurance
- Attorney General of Iowa
- Massachusetts Governor's Council Districts 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8
- New Mexico Public Education Commission Districts 3, 5, and 7
- New Mexico Public Regulation Commission District 4
- North Dakota Secretary of State
- Attorney General of Rhode Island
- Texas State Board of Education Districts 3 and 4
20 races did not feature a Democratic candidate. The offices with no Democrats on the ballot and thus likely to be won by Republicans included:
- Alabama Treasurer
- Alabama Agriculture Commissioner
- Alabama State Board of Education District 6
- Arkansas Auditor of State
- Arkansas Treasurer
- Idaho Treasurer
- Idaho Controller
- Kansas State Board of Education Districts 5 and 9
- Louisiana Public Service Commission District 2
- Attorney General of Nebraska
- Nebraska Treasurer
- New Mexico Public Education Commission Districts 2 and 6
- Oklahoma Treasurer
- Oklahoma State Auditor and Inspector
- South Carolina Comptroller General
- South Carolina Commissioner of Agriculture
- South Carolina Superintendent of Education
- Wyoming Superintendent of Public Instruction
Of the 36 races without major party opposition, 35 were won by candidates of the unopposed major party. The only exception was the secretary of state election in North Dakota. Incumbent Al Jaeger, who was first elected as a Republican, filed to run for re-election as an independent after the Republican-endorsed candidate withdrew. Jaeger won election to an eighth term.
Effect of term limits on competitiveness
Of the 117 open state executive races in 2018, 46 of them (39.3%) occurred because term limits prevented the incumbent from running again. This was the greatest impact term limits had on an even-numbered election year since 2011.
In 2014, when many of the same offices were on the ballot, term limits were responsible for 32% of the open seats. In 2016, term limits were responsible for 21% of open seats.
Some examples:
- There were 16 states where a new governor was guaranteed in 2018 because the incumbent did not file for re-election. In 13 of those races, the incumbent is prohibited from seeking re-election due to term limits: California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wyoming.
- There were 12 states where a new attorney general was guaranteed in 2018 because the incumbent did not file for re-election. In five of those races, the incumbent was prohibited from seeking re-election due to term limits: Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Rhode Island, and South Dakota.
- There were 15 states where a new lieutenant governor was guaranteed in 2018 because the incumbent did not file for re-election. In six of those races, the incumbent was prohibited from seeking re-election due to term limits: California, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma, and South Dakota.
- There were seven states where a new secretary of state was guaranteed in 2018 because the incumbent did not file for re-election. In three of those races, the incumbent was prohibited from seeking re-election due to term limits: Arkansas, Michigan, and Ohio.
*These results were not considered statistically significant due to small sample size.
Source: Ballotpedia
Influence of presidential elections on incumbent departures
Competitiveness in state executive races can be affected by a recent U.S. presidential contest that alters the previously assumed balance of power between the two major parties in a state. A statewide officeholder elected as a Republican during a non-presidential year may soon find him or herself in a state that voted more strongly for the Democratic presidential candidate, or vice versa, and the prospect of facing a tougher partisan climate may make him or her less likely to seek re-election.
However, for 2018, a state’s presidential voting pattern in 2016 did not correlate with the creation of races with open seats.
Out of all the incumbents elected statewide to state executive offices who could have legally run again in 2018 but did not, there were six instances of an open seat being vacated by an incumbent from the opposite political party as the state’s 2016 presidential vote.
Each of the six was a Republican from a state won by Democrat Hillary Clinton. But an analysis of the individual circumstances often reveals motives unrelated to the outcome of the 2016 election:
- Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) and Nevada Treasurer Dan Schwartz (R) chose instead to run for governor of Nevada in 2018, where either would face the same general election voters as they would if they had run for re-election. Mr. Laxalt defeated Mr. Schwartz in the Republican primary. Democrat Hillary Clinton won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points over Republican Donald Trump.
- Also in Nevada, Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison (R), first elected in 2014, announced in 2017 he would not seek re-election.
- Colorado Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R), first elected 2014, did not file for re-election in 2018, instead seeking the Republican nomination for governor. Democrat Hillary Clinton won Colorado by 4.8 percentage points over Republican Donald Trump.
- Delaware State Auditor R. Thomas Wagner, Jr. (R) has held the position for 29 years and did not seek re-election. Democrat Hillary Clinton won Delaware by 11.3 percentage points over Republican Donald Trump. However, Delaware has not voted for a Republican U.S. Presidential candidate since 1988—the year before Mr. Wagner became the state’s auditor.
- New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands Aubrey Dunn first won election in 2014 as a Republican, but switched his affiliation to Libertarian soon afterward. Rather than seek re-election in 2018, he filed to run for New Mexico’s U.S. Senate seat as a Libertarian, won the Libertarian Party primary, but then withdrew before the November 6, 2018, general election. Democrat Hillary Clinton won New Mexico by 8.2 percentage points over Republican Donald Trump in 2016.
Influence of pivot counties on incumbent departures
The number of open seats in state executive races may also increase due to the existence of a pivot county within the state. In 2018, there was a correlation between the existence of a pivot county in a state and incumbents deciding against running for re-election.
Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections in July 2017. Collectively, Trump won these pivot counties by more than 580,000 votes and had an average margin of victory of 11.45%.
Of the 117 total incumbents not seeking re-election in 2018, 46 were legally precluded from doing so due to term limits and another 13 were in nonpartisan offices. Of the remaining 58 open seats for 2018, 36 of them (62.1%) were in states containing at least one of the pivot counties.
- Colorado: Four pivot counties. Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (R) declined to seek re-election. Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne (D) ran for governor and lost in the Democratic primary. State Board of Education member Pam Mazanec (R) and state Board of Regents members Stephen Ludwig (D) and Kyle Hybl (R) declined to seek re-election.
- Connecticut: One pivot county. Gov. Dan Malloy (D) declined to seek re-election, Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman (D) was elected on the same ticket with Malloy and did not seek re-election, Attorney General George C. Jepsen (D) declined to seek re-election, and State Treasurer Denise L. Nappier (D) did not seek re-election.
- Delaware: One pivot county that contains 18.3% of total state population. Attorney General Matthew Denn (D) declined to seek re-election. State Auditor R. Thomas Wagner, Jr. (R) has held the position for 29 years and is not seeking re-election.
- Florida: Four pivot counties. Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R) was first elected on a ticket with Gov. Rick Scott (R) in 2014, Scott's second term. He declined to seek another term as lieutenant governor.
- Georgia: Five pivot counties. Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) decided to run for governor and won the Republican primary. Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle (R) also ran for governor, losing to Kemp in the primary. Ralph Hudgens (R), the state’s insurance commissioner, did not seek re-election.
- Illinois: Eleven pivot counties. Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) held the office for 15 years and declined to run for another term.
- Michigan: Twelve pivot counties that contain 18.4% of total state population. Eileen Weiser (R) did not seek re-election to the Michigan State Board of Education. Michigan State University Trustees Mitch Lyons (R) and Brian Breslin (R) also did not seek re-election.
- Minnesota: Nineteen pivot counties that contain 10% of total state population. Gov. Mark Dayton (D) did not seek re-election to a third term. Attorney General Lori Swanson (D) ran for governor and lost in the Democratic primary. State Auditor Rebecca Otto (D) held the post for 11 years and did not seek re-election.
- Nebraska: One pivot county. Secretary of State John Gale (R) was in the office for 18 years and declined to seek re-election. Nebraska Public Service Commission member Frank E. Landis, Jr. (R) also declined to seek re-election.
- New Hampshire: Three pivot counties. Executive Councillor Chris Pappas (D) declined to seek re-election, instead running for a seat in the U.S. House.
- New Mexico: Three pivot counties. Commissioner of Public Lands Aubrey Dunn first won election in 2014 as a Republican, but switched his affiliation to Libertarian soon afterward. Rather than seek re-election in 2018, he filed to run for New Mexico’s U.S. Senate seat as a Libertarian, won the Libertarian Party primary, but then withdrew before the November 6, 2018, general election. Public Education Commissioners Carmie Lynn Toulouse (D), James F. Conyers (D), and Gilbert Peralta (D) declined to seek re-election.
- New York: Eighteen pivot counties that contain 19.4% of total state population. Attorney General Barbara Underwood became the acting attorney general in May 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Eric Schneiderman amid allegations of his sexual misconduct and abuse. She did not seek election to the post in 2018.
- South Carolina: Five pivot counties. Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant (R) ran for governor and lost in the Republican primary.
- South Dakota: Five pivot counties. Secretary of State Shantel Krebs (R) ran for governor and lost in the Republican primary.
- Texas: One pivot county. State Board of Education members David Bradley (R), Geraldine Miller (R), and Erika Beltran (D) did not seek re-election.
- Wisconsin: Twenty-three pivot counties. State Treasurer Matt Adamczyk (R) ran for state assembly rather than seeking re-election.
See also
- Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018
- Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 8, 2018
- Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
Footnotes
| ||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||