Last updated on November 19, 2024

2022 State Legislative Competitiveness

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2022 State legislative competitiveness
Term limits • Open seats • Contested primaries • Incumbents in contested primaries • Major party competition • Incumbents defeated Primary statistics
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Ballotpedia's 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections that took place in 2022. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures.

Ballotpedia has published comprehensive competitiveness data from each election cycle since 2010. In 2022, this includes data from state legislative, state executive, and congressional filings.

HIGHLIGHTS

An average of 2.4 candidates filed per seat, the second-highest rate compared to the four preceding election cycles behind 2018.^[1]

Of the 7,021 seats and offices up for election, 23.5% were open.^[2] This was the largest percentage of open seats compared to the four preceding election cycles, none of which had an open seat rate higher than 20%.

Of all possible primaries, 24.3% were contested, the highest rate compared to the four preceding election cycles.^[3]

Of the 5,454 incumbents who filed for re-election, 30.2% faced contested primaries, the highest rate compared to the four preceding election cycles, none of which had a rate higher than 30%.

On this page you will find:

Aggregate primary competitiveness data, including historical comparisons with even-year election cycles since 2014. Click here to view the most recent odd-year analysis.
Primary competitiveness by office type
State-specific competitiveness figures.
An overview of this analysis' methodology and definitions

Overview

The following statistics are an aggregate of primary election competitiveness data across all states with completed filing deadlines unless otherwise noted. Corresponding data from 2020, 2018, 2016, and 2014 are provided for comparative purposes. For state-specific competitiveness data in 2022, click here. Learn more about Ballotpedia's primary competitiveness methodology here.

The table below shows aggregate primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in 2022. You may need to move the table horizontally using the scrollbar at the bottom of the table depending on your screen size.

2022 aggregate primary competitiveness data
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	Contested top-two primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
U.S. Senate	34	34	6	335	64	23	26	4	82.8%	21	75.0%
U.S. House	435	435	60	2,138	795	165	230	67	58.1%	228	59.8%
State executive	271	274	89	1,167	516	91	137	27	49.4%	97	50.3%
State legislature	5,862	6,278	1,492	13,443	11,419	821	1,387	126	20.4%	1,299	26.8%
Totals	6,602	7,021	1,647	17,083	12,794	1,100	1,780	224	24.3%	1,645	30.2%

2020

Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2020.

2020 aggregate primary competitiveness data
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	Contested top-two primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
U.S. Senate	33	33	4	242	65	22	22	1	69.2%	15	53.6%
U.S. House	435	435	41	2,052	794	198	200	63	58.1%	198	50.3%
State executives	144	144	49	510	256	36	43	21	39.1%	35	36.5%
State legislature	5,497	5,875	876	12,353	10,746	836	882	109	17.0%	1,006	20.1%
Totals	6,109	6,487	970	15,157	11,861	1,092	1,147	194	20.5%	1,254	22.7%

2018

Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2018.

2018 aggregate primary competitiveness data
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	Contested top-two primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
U.S. Senate	33	33	3	249	64	14	29	2	70.3%	15	50.0%
U.S. House	435	435	60	2,015	796	241	170	55	58.5%	190	50.8%
State executives	264	264	100	1,029	490	96	106	21	45.5%	67	40.4%
State legislature^[4]	5,612	6,065	1,194	13,297	10,977	1,005	1,011	107	19.3%	1,082	22.2%
Totals	6,344	6,797	1,357	16,590	12,327	1,356	1,316	185	23.2%	1,354	24.9%

2016

Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2016.

2016 aggregate primary competitiveness data
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	Contested top-two primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
U.S. Senate	36	36	5	266	69	20	22	3	65.2%	18	58.1%
U.S. House	435	435	45	1,588	799	133	170	55	44.8%	196	50.4%
State executives	91	91	42	300	170	28	29	9	38.8%	20	39.2%
State legislature^[5]	5,538	5,916	1,032	11,918	10,827	752	940	108	16.6%	985	20.2%
Totals	6,100	6,478	1,124	14,072	11,865	933	1,161	175	19.1%	1,219	22.8%

2014

Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2014.

2014 aggregate primary competitiveness data
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	Contested top-two primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
U.S. Senate	31	31	6	191	61	15	23	1	63.9%	14	56.0%
U.S. House	435	435	43	1,471	799	119	161	53	41.7%	167	42.6%
State executives	211	211	68	728	413	71	79	8	38.3%	51	36.4%
State legislature^[6]	5,598	6,051	1,019	12,046	10,949	646	958	94	15.5%	983	19.5%
Totals	6,275	6,728	1,136	14,436	12,222	851	1,221	156	18.2%	1,215	21.7%

Breakdown by office

The tables below show primary competitiveness statistics overall and broken down by office type. Figures are shown as percentages with overall figures shown first. Click [show] on the bars beneath the table to view statistics by office type.

Comparison of overall primary competitiveness percentages, 2010-2022
	2010	2012	2014	2016	2018	2020	2022	Average
Open seats (%)	18.7%	21.9%	16.9%	17.4%	20.0%	15.0%	23.5%	19.0%
Total primaries (%)	18.3%	18.5%	18.2%	19.1%	23.2%	20.5%	24.3%	20.3%
Inc. in contested primaries (%)	20.0%	23.3%	21.7%	22.8%	24.9%	22.7%	30.2%	23.6%

U.S. Senate
	2010	2012	2014	2016	2018	2020	2022	Average
Open seats (%)	-	-	19.4%	13.9%	9.1%	12.1%	17.6%	14.4%
Total primaries (%)	-	-	63.9%	65.2%	70.3%	69.2%	82.8%	67.9%
Inc. in contested primaries (%)	-	-	56.0%	58.1%	50.0%	53.6%	75.0%	58.5%

U.S. House
	2010	2012	2014	2016	2018	2020	2022	Average
Open seats (%)	-	-	9.9%	10.3%	13.8%	9.4%	13.8%	11.4%
Total primaries (%)	-	-	41.7%	44.8%	58.5%	58.1%	58.1%	52.2%
Inc. in contested primaries (%)	-	-	42.6%	50.4%	50.8%	50.3%	59.8%	50.8%

State executive
	2010	2012	2014	2016	2018	2020	2022	Average
Open seats (%)	-	-	32.2%	46.2%	37.9%	34.0%	32.5%	36.6%
Total primaries (%)	-	-	38.3%	38.8%	45.5%	39.1%	49.4%	42.2%
Inc. in contested primaries (%)	-	-	36.4%	39.2%	40.4%	36.5%	50.3%	40.5%

State legislative
	2010	2012	2014	2016	2018	2020	2022	Average
Open seats (%)	18.7%	21.9%	16.8%	17.4%	19.7%	14.9%	23.8%	19.0%
Total primaries (%)	18.3%	18.5%	15.5%	16.6%	19.3%	17.0%	20.4%	18.0%
Inc. in contested primaries (%)	20.0%	23.3%	19.5%	20.2%	22.2%	20.1%	26.8%	21.7%

The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics broken down by office type. The figures shown are total numbers. This analysis uses the following definitions:

Total candidates: the total number of major party candidates running in primary elections.^[7]
Total seats: the total number of seats or offices up for election with the possibility of a primary election.
Open seats: the total number of seats, out of the total seats figure, where the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary filing deadline.
Incumbents contested: the total number of incumbents in contested primaries.
Democratic/Republican/Top-two primaries: the total number of these types of primaries where at least one candidate could have failed to advance to the general election.
Total primaries: a combination of all Democratic, Republican, and top-two primaries where at least one candidate could have failed to advance to the general election.

U.S. Senate

U.S. House

State executive

State legislative

Breakdown by state

See also: Ballotpedia's Candidate Filing Analysis Hub, 2022

Methodology

This section provides state-specific data on primary competitiveness numbers. Each section contains a state overview as well as state-specific looks at the four categories of elections covered in this analysis: U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state executive, and state legislative.

For each state, the categories of elections are shown as historical tables with data from previous election cycles where races in that category were up for election. All 2020 numbers reflect races where there was, or could have been, a primary. It does not include numbers for races that use conventions or some other method as the sole form of nomination to the general election ballot. Due to the expansion of Ballotpedia's coverage and changes made to the competitiveness analysis, previous years' numbers may vary. Common reasons include the exclusion of offices that were outside of Ballotpedia's coverage at the time and the inclusion of races that use conventions or some other method as the sole means of nomination.

If you have any questions about the methodology used in this analysis, please email us.

Definitions

Below are definitions of terms and metrics used in this analysis.

Districts/offices: the number of districts or offices up for election. Since some state legislative districts and state executive offices are represented by more than one officeholder, this number may be smaller than the number of seats.
Seats: the number of seats up for election.
Open seats: the number of open seats. This analysis defines a seat as open if the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed but withdrew and did not appear on any ballot for the district/office.^[8]
Candidates: the number of candidates participating in primaries. If the race is a top-two primary, all candidates are counted. In all other primaries, only major-party candidates are counted.^[9]
Possible primaries: this figure reflects the number of major-party primaries that are possible. In most cases, this figure is twice the number of districts/offices up for election, since every district could have a Democratic and a Republican primary. If top-two primaries are used, there is only one primary per district/office. If a convention is the only method of nomination, it is not counted as a possible primary.^[10]^[11]
Contested Democratic/Republican/top-two primaries: these figures show the total number of primaries where at least one candidate will be defeated, meaning there are more candidates in the primary than there are seats.
% of contested primaries: calculated by dividing the sum of all contested primaries by the number of possible primaries.
Incumbents in contested primaries: the number of incumbents who appear on a primary ballot where he or she could be defeated.^[12]
% of incumbents in contested primaries: calculated by dividing the number of incumbents in contested primaries by the number of incumbents seeking re-election.^[13]

Alabama

Alabama had two separate filing deadlines: January 28, 2022, for state offices and February 11, 2022, for congressional races. Candidates filed to run for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state executive offices, and the state legislature. The table below shows cumulative primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in this state.

Alabama primary competitiveness, 2022
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
U.S. Senate	1	1	1	9	2	1	1	100.0%	N/A	N/A
U.S. House	7	7	1	21	14	3	2	35.7%	1	16.7%
State executive	13	13	3	43	26	1	9	38.5%	6	60.0%
State legislature	140	140	26	260	280	17	43	21.4%	35	30.7%
Totals	161	161	31	333	322	22	55	23.9%	42	32.3%

U.S. Senate

Alabama U.S. Senate competitiveness, 2014-2022
Year	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2022	1	1	1	9	2	1	1	100.0%	N/A	N/A
2020	1	1	0	8	2	0	1	50.0%	0	0.0%
2016	1	1	0	7	2	1	1	100.0%	1	100.0%
2014	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.0%	0	0.0%

Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022

Overview

2020

2018

2016

2014

Breakdown by office

U.S. Senate

U.S. House

State executive

State legislative

Breakdown by state

Methodology

Definitions

Alabama

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California

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Connecticut

Delaware

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

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Louisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

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