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Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

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Ballotpedia's 2024 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections that took place in 2024. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures.

Ballotpedia has published comprehensive competitiveness data from each election cycle since 2010. In 2024, this includes data from state legislative, state executive, and congressional filings.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • This page contained post-filing deadline information for 6,426 seats across 50 states.
  • As of September 2024, an average of 2.2 candidates filed per seat. The average number for the three preceding cycles was 2.4.
  • Of the 6,432 seats and offices up for election, 16.9% were open.[1] The average rate of open seats for the three preceding cycles was 19.5%.
  • Of all possible primaries, 19.2% were contested. The average rate of contested primaries for the three preceding cycles was 22.7%.[2]
  • Of the 5,342 incumbents who filed for re-election, 23.8% faced contested primaries. The average rate of incumbents in contested primaries for the three preceding cycles was 25.9%.


    • On this page you will find:

    Overview

    The following statistics are an aggregate of primary election competitiveness data across all states with completed filing deadlines unless otherwise noted. Corresponding data from 2022, 2020, 2018, 2016, and 2014 are provided for comparative purposes. For state-specific competitiveness data in 2024, click here. Learn more about Ballotpedia's primary competitiveness methodology here.

    The table below shows aggregate primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in 2024. You may need to move the table horizontally using the scrollbar at the bottom of the table depending on your screen size.

    2024 aggregate primary competitiveness data
    Office Districts/
    offices     		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries Contested top-two primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
    U.S. Senate 34 34 8 214 68 14 22 2 55.9% 13 54.2%
    U.S. House 435 435 50 1,770 801 137 189 58 47.9% 184 47.7%
    State executive 151 155 70 533 259 31 57 23 42.9% 36 41.6%
    State legislature 5,470 5,807 962 11,801 10,642 608 1,005 118 16.3% 1,039 21.4%
    Totals 6,090 6,431 1,090 14,318 11,768 790 1,273 201 19.2% 1,272 23.8%

    2022

    See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022
    See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022
    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 12, 2022

    Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2022.

    2020

    See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2020
    See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2020
    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 10, 2020

    Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2020.

    2018

    See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2018
    See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018
    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 8, 2018

    Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2018.

    2016

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 6, 2016

    Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2016.

    2014

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 4, 2014

    Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2014.

    Breakdown by office

    The tables below show primary competitiveness statistics overall and broken down by office type. Figures are shown as percentages with overall figures shown first. Click [show] on the bars beneath the table to view statistics by office type.

    Comparison of overall primary competitiveness percentages, 2010-2024
    2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Average
    Open seats (%) 18.7% 21.9% 16.9% 17.4% 20.0% 15.0% 23.5% 16.9% 18.8%
    Total primaries (%) 18.3% 18.5% 18.2% 19.1% 23.2% 20.5% 24.3% 19.2% 20.2%
    Inc. in contested primaries (%) 20.0% 23.3% 21.7% 22.8% 24.9% 22.7% 30.2% 23.8% 23.7%


    The charts below show primary competitiveness statistics broken down by office type. The figures shown are total numbers. This analysis uses the following definitions:

    • Total candidates: the total number of major party candidates running in primary elections.[6]
    • Total seats: the total number of seats or offices up for election with the possibility of a primary election.
    • Open seats: the total number of seats, out of the total seats figure, where the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary filing deadline.
    • Incumbents contested: the total number of incumbents in contested primaries.
    • Democratic/Republican/Top-two primaries: the total number of these types of primaries where at least one candidate could have failed to advance to the general election.
    • Total primaries: a combination of all Democratic, Republican, and top-two primaries where at least one candidate could have failed to advance to the general election.

    U.S. Senate

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ This analysis defines a seat as open if the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary filing deadline.
    2. ↑ A primary is contested when more candidates file to run than nominations available, meaning at least one candidate must lose.
    3. ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
    4. ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
    5. ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
    6. ↑ In top-two primaries, all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, are counted. If a convention is the sole means of nomination, only the candidate(s) advancing beyond the convention are counted.
    7. ↑ If an incumbent withdrew from or did not participate in a primary, but later chose to run for re-election as a minor party or independent candidate, his or her seat would not be counted as open.
    8. ↑ If a convention is the sole means of nomination, only the candidate(s) advancing beyond the convention are counted.
    9. ↑ For example, if there are 50 districts up for election, there would be 100 possible primaries. If Democrats in five districts and Republicans in two districts chose to nominate candidates via a convention, the number of possible primaries would decrease to 93
      ((50 * 2) - 7).
    10. ↑ If conventions are used, but could still result in a primary, that is included as a possible primary even if the convention did not proceed to a primary. For example, in some states a candidate can advance to the general election from a convention outright if he or she receives a certain percentage of the vote. If that percentage is not met, the race may proceed to a primary.
    11. ↑ Incumbents participating in contested nominating conventions are not included in this total. If the incumbent participates in a convention and advances to a contested primary, he or she would be included. This figure include all incumbents whose name appear on a contested primary ballot even if that incumbent passed away or unofficially withdrew before the election.
    12. ↑ Incumbents seeking re-election can typically be calculated by subtracting the number of open seats from the number of total seats.
    13. ↑ Ballotpedia's coverage scope did not include any state executive elections in Hawaii in 2016.
    14. ↑ All state executive offices in Indiana up for election in 2022 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    15. ↑ All state executive offices in Indiana up for election in 2018 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    16. ↑ All state executive offices in Indiana up for election in 2014 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    17. ↑ Though incumbent Rep. Nima Kulkarni won in the Democratic primary for House District 40, the Kentucky Supreme Court struck down her primary results and found that Kulkarni was a disqualified candidate after a lawsuit alleged one of two people whose signature was on her nomination paperwork was a Republican when it was signed. While Kulkarni appeared on the ballot, Ballotpedia counted House District 40 as an open seat because the Kentucky Supreme Court deemed her candidacy invalid.
    18. ↑ Though incumbent Rep. Nima Kulkarni won in the Democratic primary for House District 40, the Kentucky Supreme Court struck down her primary results and found that Kulkarni was a disqualified candidate after a lawsuit alleged one of two people whose signature was on her nomination paperwork was a Republican when it was signed. While Kulkarni appeared on the ballot, Ballotpedia counted House District 40 as an open seat because the Kentucky Supreme Court deemed her candidacy invalid.
    19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 19.2 Louisiana's general election statistics are recorded as primary figures for the purpose of this analysis.
    20. ↑ All state executive offices in Michigan up for election in 2024 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    21. ↑ All state executive offices in Michigan up for election in 2024 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    22. ↑ All state executive offices in Michigan up for election in 2020 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    23. ↑ Ballotpedia's coverage scope did not include any state executive elections in Michigan in 2016.
    24. ↑ Ballotpedia's coverage scope did not include any state executive elections in Nevada in 2016.
    25. ↑ Six district parties chose to hold nominating conventions or caucuses instead of primaries. Those are not included in the total for number of possible primaries.
    26. ↑ Seven district parties chose to hold nominating conventions or caucuses instead of primaries. Those are not included in the total for number of possible primaries.
    27. ↑ Five district parties chose to hold nominating conventions or caucuses instead of primaries. Those are not included in the total for number of possible primaries.
    28. ↑ Two district parties chose to hold nominating conventions or caucuses instead of primaries. Those are not included in the total number of possible primaries.
    29. ↑ Two district parties chose to hold nominating conventions or caucuses instead of primaries. Those are not included in the total number of possible primaries.
    30. ↑ There were four open seats in the Senate. Of the 19 open seats in the House, nine were in districts that did not exist before the 2022 election cycle. Three open seats were in districts that, before 2022, contained multiple seats. The remaining seven open seats were in districts that had been single-member districts before 2022.
    31. ↑ Includes three seats created during the redistricting process after the 2020 census.
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