Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 4, 2014

2015 → ← 2013
2014 State Legislative Elections
States
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Other 2014 Election coverage
Ballot access for major and minor party candidates • Statewide elections, 2014 • State Senate elections • State House elections • State executive official elections • 2014 ballot measures

All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index -- the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates -- showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition, and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.

Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.

Of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats, 6,051 were up for election in the November 4, 2014, state legislative elections. This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2014's state legislative elections. The analysis utilized the 3-factor "Competitiveness Index."

This report is organized into four sections. They are:

• Competitiveness overview
• Open seats
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Major party competition

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
• Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
• Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2014 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections

State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2014
	2010	2012	2014	AVERAGE
Competitiveness Index	34.6	35.2	30.8	33.5
Open seats	18.7%	21.9%	16.8%	19.1%
Inc. in contested primaries	20.0%	23.3%	19.5%	20.9%
Seats with major party competition	65.0%	60.4%	56.0%	60.5%

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2014

There were 6,051 state legislative seats up for election on November 4, 2014, in 46 states. Of that total, there were 1,019 open seats, guaranteeing at least 17% of all seats would be won by newcomers. The total number and percentage of open seats was the lowest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2014:

There were 457 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.

There were 554 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.

There were eight other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing. It also includes seats where Ballotpedia could not determine partisan control due to redistricting.

The total number of open seats—1,019—was the lowest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010 and a 22% decrease from 2012.

Open state legislative seats, 2014
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic	Republican	Other	Total
					#	%
House	4,958	367	437	6	810	16.3%
Senate	1,093	90	117	2	209	19.1%
Total	6,051	457	554	8	1,019	16.8%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2010 to 2014. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders. It also includes seats whose previous officeholders could not be determined due to redistricting.