Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 4, 2014
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All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index -- the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates -- showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition, and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
Of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats, 6,051 were up for election in the November 4, 2014, state legislative elections. This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2014's state legislative elections. The analysis utilized the 3-factor "Competitiveness Index."
This report is organized into four sections. They are:
Competitiveness overview
Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.
Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:
- Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
- Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
- Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.
These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).
The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2014 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.
State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2014 | |||||||||
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2010 | 2012 | 2014 | AVERAGE | ||||||
Competitiveness Index | 34.6 | 35.2 | 30.8 | 33.5 | |||||
Open seats | 18.7% | 21.9% | 16.8% | 19.1% | |||||
Inc. in contested primaries | 20.0% | 23.3% | 19.5% | 20.9% | |||||
Seats with major party competition | 65.0% | 60.4% | 56.0% | 60.5% |
Open seats
There were 6,051 state legislative seats up for election on November 4, 2014, in 46 states. Of that total, there were 1,019 open seats, guaranteeing at least 17% of all seats would be won by newcomers. The total number and percentage of open seats was the lowest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.
In 2014:
Open state legislative seats, 2014 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Democratic | Republican | Other | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||
# | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
House | 4,958 | 367 | 437 | 6 | 810 | 16.3% | ||||||||||||||||||
Senate | 1,093 | 90 | 117 | 2 | 209 | 19.1% | ||||||||||||||||||
Total | 6,051 | 457 | 554 | 8 | 1,019 | 16.8% |
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2010 to 2014. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders. It also includes seats whose previous officeholders could not be determined due to redistricting.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2014
- Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2014
- Open seats in state legislative elections, 2014
- Contested state legislative primaries, 2014
- State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2014
- Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2014
- Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2014
- State legislative incumbents without general election challengers, 2014
- Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2014
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- ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.