United States Senate election in Florida, 2018

Elections in Florida, 2018

• General election: Nov. 6
• Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
• Early voting: Oct. 27 - Nov. 3
• Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6

• Online registration: Yes
• Same-day registration: No
• Voter ID: Photo ID required
• Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

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On the ballot: U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Governor • Attorney General • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Special state legislative • Supreme court • Appellate courts • Local judges • State ballot measures • Local ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • Democratic primaries • Republican primaries

2022 → ← 2016
U.S. Senate, Florida
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Bill Nelson (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up Inside Elections: Toss-up Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Florida U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th Florida elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 Arizona U.S. Senate raceCalifornia U.S. Senate raceConnecticut U.S. Senate raceDelaware U.S. Senate raceFlorida U.S. Senate raceHawaii U.S. Senate raceIndiana U.S. Senate raceMaine U.S. Senate raceMaryland U.S. Senate raceMassachusetts U.S. Senate raceMichigan U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate race (special)Mississippi U.S. Senate raceMississippi U.S. Senate race (special)Missouri U.S. Senate raceMontana U.S. Senate raceNebraska U.S. Senate raceNevada U.S. Senate raceNew Jersey U.S. Senate raceNew Mexico U.S. Senate raceNew York U.S. Senate raceNorth Dakota U.S. Senate raceOhio U.S. Senate racePennsylvania U.S. Senate raceRhode Island U.S. Senate raceTennessee U.S. Senate raceTexas U.S. Senate raceUtah U.S. Senate raceVermont U.S. Senate raceVirginia U.S. Senate raceWashington U.S. Senate raceWest Virginia U.S. Senate raceWisconsin U.S. Senate raceWyoming U.S. Senate raceSubmit

Term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) defeated three-term incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in the general election for the U.S. Senate in Florida on November 6, 2018.

Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Elections forecasters called this race a toss-up. While Nelson won his re-election bid in 2012 by a margin of 13 points against Rep. Connie Mack (R)—55 percent to 42 percent—other statewide races, including presidential elections, were closely contested. Donald Trump (R) won the 2016 presidential election in Florida by 1.2 percentage points, while Barack Obama (D) won the state in the 2012 election by 0.9 percentage points and the 2008 election by 2.8 percentage points. Nelson was the only Democrat elected to statewide office in Florida, at the time of the election.

According to Matt Dixon and Marc Caputo of Politico, the election tested "the limits of whether a close alliance with President Donald Trump is political poison or a pathway to success in the nation’s biggest swing state."

For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Election aftermath

See also: Recount laws in Florida

• November 18, 2018: Nelson conceded the race after the results of the manual recount showed Scott leading Nelson by 10,033 votes.
• November 15, 2018: Deadline for counties to report automatic recount results to the Florida Secretary of State. Since the margin between Scott and Nelson remained below 0.25 percentage points following the machine recount, a manual recount was called.
• November 14, 2018: Scott said that he had recused himself from certifying election results.
• November 10, 2018: Florida Secretary of State Ken Detzner (R) ordered a recount in the elections for U.S. Senate, governor, and agriculture commissioner, after county election boards reported unofficial results to the state.
  • Scott led Nelson by 0.14 percentage points—within the 0.5 percent margin for a machine recount and the 0.25 percent margin for a hand recount, under Florida state law.
  • This is the first U.S. Senate election in Florida history to go to a recount, according to the office of the Florida Secretary of State. For more information about recount procedures in Florida, see Section 102.166 of the Florida Statutes.

Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. Senate Florida

Rick Scott defeated incumbent Bill Nelson in the general election for U.S. Senate Florida on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Rick Scott (R)	50.1	4,099,505
		Bill Nelson (D)	49.9	4,089,472
		Other/Write-in votes	0.0	1,028

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 8,190,005
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Joe Allen (Independent)
• Joe Wendt (L)
• Gregory Bowles (Independent)
• Carlos Garcia (Independent)

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Florida

Incumbent Bill Nelson advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Florida on August 28, 2018.

		Candidate
✔		Bill Nelson

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Tamika Lyles (D)

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Florida

Rick Scott defeated Roque De La Fuente in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Florida on August 28, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Rick Scott	88.6	1,456,187
		Roque De La Fuente	11.4	187,209

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 1,643,396
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Martin Mikhail (R)
• Augustus Sol Invictus (R)
• Joe Smith (R)
• Marcia Thorne (R)

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages

Bill Nelson, U.S. senator

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. Senate, Florida; former U.S. representative for Florida's 9th and 11th Congressional Districts; former member of Florida House of Representatives, District 47

Biography: Nelson served in the U.S. Army before being elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 1972. He served in the state legislature for three terms before being elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1979. While a congressman, Nelson became an astronaut and participated in the Space Shuttle Columbia program in 1986. He also served as state treasurer before being elected to the U.S. Senate in 2000. He graduated from Yale University and the University of Virginia Law School.

Campaign messaging

• Nelson emphasized his four decades of public service in the military, Congress, state government, and NASA. He pointed to these experiences as evidence of his lifelong commitment to Florida, where he was born and raised, over partisan politics.

• Nelson characterized Scott as a party loyalist "planning to buy this seat" and use it for profit.

• Nelson highlighted his position on healthcare and education in comparison to Scott's platform. Nelson opposed cuts to Medicare and Medicaid and supported funding for teacher development and STEM programs.

Rick Scott, governor of Florida

Party: Republican

Incumbent: No

Political office: Governor of Florida

Biography: Scott served in the U.S. Navy after graduating from high school and attending community college. He graduated from UMKC with a degree in business administration and Southern Methodist University with a J.D. After practicing law, Scott founded healthcare company Columbia Hospital Corporation. He was elected governor of Florida in 2010.

Campaign messaging

• Scott highlighted his personal background, growing up in public housing to founding the world’s largest healthcare company. He connected his personal experiences to why he supported policy positions that he believed would lead to job creation in the state.

• Scott supported term limits, arguing that career politicians do not accomplish anything. He said successful business owners should go to Washington, D.C., to produce results.

• Scott described Nelson in opposition ads as "confused" and "party first, Florida last."

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

U.S. Senate election in Florida, General election
Poll	Poll sponsor	Nelson	Scott	Undecided/Other	Margin of error	Sample size
St. Pete Polls November 3-4, 2018	FloridaPolitics.com	50%	46%	4%	+/-1.8	3,088
Quinnipiac University October 29-November 4, 2018	N/A	51%	44%	5%	+/-3.5	1,142
St. Pete Polls November 1-2, 2018	FloridaPolitics.com	48%	49%	3%	+/-1.9	2,733
Marist College October 30-November 2, 2018	N/A	50%	46%	4%	+/-5.0	595
Gravis Marketing October 29-November 2, 2018	N/A	48%	46%	6%	+/-3.6	753
AVERAGES		49.4%	46.2%	4.4%	+/-3.16	1,662.2
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Click [show] to see older poll results

U.S. Senate election in Florida, October 17-31, 2018 Poll Poll sponsor Nelson Scott Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size St. Pete Polls October 30-31, 2018 FloridaPolitics.com 49% 47% 3% +/-2.0 2,470 Vox Populi Polling October 27-30, 2018 N/A 50% 50% 0% +/-3.7 696 Trafalgar Group October 29-30, 2018 N/A 49% 47% 4% +/-1.9 2,543 Cygnal October 27-29, 2018 N/A 50% 48% 2% +/-4.4 495 CNN/SSRS October 24-29, 2018 N/A 49% 47% 4% +/-4.3 781 Suffolk University/USA TODAY October 25-28, 2018 N/A 45% 43% 12% +/-4.4 500 Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics October 17-25, 2018 N/A 49% 44% 4% +/-3.4 1,069 AVERAGES 48.71% 46.57% 4.14% +/-3.44 1,222 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. U.S. Senate election in Florida, October 14-27, 2018 Poll Poll sponsor Nelson Scott Undecided/Other Margin of error Sample size New York Times/Siena College October 23-27, 2018 N/A 48% 44% 8% +/-4.0 737 CBS News/YouGov October 23-26, 2018 N/A 46% 46% 8% +/-4.0 991 Florida Atlantic University October 18-21, 2018 N/A 41% 42% 17% +/-3.6 704 Strategic Research Associates October 16-23, 2018 Gray Television 46% 45% 9% +/-3.5 800 St. Pete Polls October 20-21, 2018 N/A 48% 49% 3% +/-2.5 1,575 SurveyUSA/Spectrum News October 18-21, 2018 N/A 49% 41% 10% +/-5.0 665 Quinipiac University October 17-21, 2018 N/A 52% 46% 2% +/-3.5 1,161 SSRS October 16-20, 2018 CNN 50% 45% 4% +/-4.2 759 OnMessage Inc. October 14-18, 2018 N/A 46% 51% 3% +/-2.1 2,200 AVERAGES 47.33% 45.44% 7.11% +/-3.6 1,065.78 Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. U.S. Senate election in Florida, General election Poll Bill Nelson (D) Rick Scott (R) Undecided/Other Margin of Error Sample Size NBC News/Marist September 16-20, 2018 48% 45% 7% +/-4.7 600 Tampa Bay Times September 17-20, 2018 45% 45% 10% +/-4.0 604 Florida Atlantic University September 13-16, 2018 41% 42% 17% +/-3.3 850 Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics September 5-12, 2018 45% 46% 10% +/-3.5 1,000 Rasmussen Reports September 10-11, 2018 45% 45% 11% +/-3.5 800 Quinnipiac August 30-September 3, 2018 49% 49% 2% +/-4.3 785 Gravis Marketing August 29-30, 2018 47% 47% 6% +/-2.8 1,225 Florida Atlantic University August 16-20, 2018 39% 45% 16% +/-3.4 800 Mason-Dixon Polling July 24-25, 2018 44% 47% 9% +/-4.0 625 Florida Atlantic University July 20-21, 2018 40% 44% 16% +/-3.4 800 Axios/Survey Monkey June 11-July 2, 2018 46% 49% 5% +/-5 1,080 CBS News/YouGov June 19-22, 2018 40% 42% 18% +/-3.5 1,002 NBC/Marist June 17-21, 2018 49% 45% 6% +/-3.7 1,083 Florida Chamber of Commerce May 25- June 4, 2018 45% 48% 5% +/-4.0 605 Morning Consult May 29-30, 2018 39% 40% 21% +/-3.0 1,119 Florida Atlantic University May 4-7, 2018 40% 44% 16% +/-3.0 1,000 McLaughlin & Associates March 10-13, 2018 46% 47% 6% +/-3.4 800 Clearview Research March 1-7, 2018 41% 43% 15% +/-3.6 750 Quinnipiac University February 23-26, 2018 46% 42% 13% +/-3.6 1,156 Florida Atlantic University February 1-4, 2018 34% 44% 12% +/-4.7 750 University of North Florida January 29-February 4, 2018 48% 42% 9% +/-4.7 429 Mason-Dixon Polling Strategy January 30-February 1, 2018 45% 44% 11% +/-4.0 625 Gravis Marketing November 19-24, 2017 44% 39% 17% +/-1.3 5,778 St. Leo University November 19-24, 2017 32% 42% 26% +/-4.5 500 JMC Analytics October 17-19, 2017 44% 44% 12% +/-4.0 625 Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

PredictIt Prices

This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Bill Nelson	Democratic Party	$34,102,191	$33,367,570	$1,730,969	As of December 31, 2018
Rick Scott	Republican Party	$85,231,716	$83,771,112	$1,460,604	As of December 31, 2018
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

• Alianza for Progress released a television, print, and social media ad campaign targeting Puerto Rican voters that criticized Scott for not addressing climate change or its role in intensifying hurricanes in July 2018.

• America Next released an ad in July 2018 saying Nelson was in Congress for nearly three decades, during which Congress failed to pass a budget eight times and the government shut down six times.

• The American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees disclosed $953,000 in spending on a television ad campaign supporting Nelson on June 14, 2018.

• Americans for Prosperity announced a seven-figure ad campaign against Nelson focused on his healthcare record in October 2018.

• Giffords PAC spent "a strong six figures" on an ad buy in February 2018 against Scott for his support of the Florida’s Firearms Owners’ Privacy Act in 2011, which prohibited doctors from discussing gun ownership with patients or their parents.

• Majority Forward spent $2.7 million on negative statewide ads against Scott in July 2018, criticizing him on healthcare policy.

• New Republican PAC
  • In August 2018, New Republican PAC spent $3 million on an ad campaign calling Nelson the "confused puppet" of Washington Democrats.
  • New Republican PAC spent more than $560,000 on an ad buy in May 2018 to support Scott. The group spent another $771,000 on ads opposing Nelson in June 2018.

• Priorities USA, in conjunction with Senate Majority PAC, spent $1.1 million in August 2018 on a digital ad campaign criticizing Scott's healthcare policy.

• Senate Majority PAC (SMP)
  • In October 2018, SMP launched a $1 million digital ad campaign saying that Scott invested in companies harmful to Florida communities.
  • In July 2018, SMP released a $2.6 million ad highlighting Nelson's healthcare policy and Scott's opposition to Medicaid expansion.
  • In June 2018, SMP reserved $23 million in television advertising for Nelson.

• VoteVets.org spent $4 million on an ad campaign in October 2018 saying that Scott, who served in the Navy for 29 months, did not deserve to wear a Navy cap. The ad said Scott's company defrauded the military's healthcare program.

Race ratings

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

• Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
• Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
• Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.
• Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.

Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Florida, 2018
Race tracker	Race ratings
	October 30, 2018	October 23, 2018	October 16, 2018	October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

Policy stances

Supreme Court vacancy

See also:Supreme Court vacancy, 2018: An overview

Justice Anthony Kennedy announced he was retiring from the Supreme Court of the United States effective July 31, 2018. Kennedy was considered by many to be the court's swing vote, often casting the deciding vote between the court's more conservative and liberal members.

Nelson said he would oppose a Supreme Court nominee to fill Anthony Kennedy's vacancy who would overturn Roe v. Wade.

Scott responded on Twitter, "Bill Nelson claims to be independent, but then he admits he expects to vote against the Supreme Court nominee before even knowing their name. Only a career politician wouldn't recognize such blatant party line politics."

The Scott campaign released an ad on July 5, 2018, stating that Nelson did not oppose any Democratic judicial nominees and describing him as "party first, Florida last."

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Bill Nelson

Campaign ads from Nelson and the Senate Majority PAC emphasized Nelson's public and military service. Opposition ads criticized Nelson for being in politics for more than four decades and accuse him of only following the party line on policy issues.

Support

"Endorsed" - Nelson campaign ad, released October 24, 2018

"Closer" - Nelson campaign ad, released October 18, 2018

"Strapped" - Nelson campaign ad, released September 24, 2018

"Oath" - Nelson campaign ad, released August 29, 2018

"See It All" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released July 11, 2018

"Promises" - Priorities USA Action and Senate Majority PAC ad, released July 9, 2018

"Served" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released May 21, 2018

Oppose

"46 Years" - Scott campaign ad, released October 26, 2018

"Attention Florida" - Scott campaign ad, released October 22, 2018

"Lining " - New Republican PAC ad, released October 15, 2018

"Empty Suit" - New Republican PAC ad, released October 2, 2018

"Responsibility" - Scott ad, released September 26, 2018

"No Show" - Scott ad, released September 24, 2018

"Empty Chair" - Scott ad, released September 18, 2018

"Nothing" - Scott ad, released September 14, 2018

"Clock" - America Next ad, released July 9, 2018

"Toe the Line" - Scott ad, released July 5, 2018

"SCOTUS" - One Nation ad, released June 28, 2018

"Negative Nelson" - Scott ad, released June 18, 2018

"Career" - New Republican PAC ad, released May 3, 2018

Rick Scott

Scott's campaign ads highlighted his policy focus on job creation, term limits, and the advantages of sending a businessman to Washington, D.C. over a career politician. Opposition ads accused Scott of being responsible for the algae bloom crisis and criticized him for opposition to Medicaid expansion.

Support

"Our Story" - Scott campaign ad, released October 24, 2018

"Fight For You" - Scott campaign ad, released October 22, 2018

"Good for Florida" - Scott campaign ad, released October 19, 2018

"Leading" - Scott campaign ad, released October 16, 2018

"Meadow" - Scott campaign ad, released October 15, 2018

"Future" - Scott campaign ad, released October 4, 2018

"Leadership" - Scott campaign ad, released September 27, 2018

"Compromiso" - Scott campaign ad, released September 14, 2018

"First" - Scott campaign ad, released September 11, 2018

"Fair" - Scott campaign ad, released August 24, 2018

"Work for Us" - Scott campaign ad, released July 23, 2018

"Presente" - Scott campaign ad, released May 14, 2018

"Results" - Scott campaign ad, released May 1, 2018

"U.S. Chamber, FL Chamber Support Governor Rick Scott for Senate" - U.S. Chamber Action ad, released April 24, 2018

"Tanto" - Scott campaign ad, released April 19, 2018

"Term Limits" - Scott campaign ad, released April 17, 2018

Oppose

"Same" - Senate Majority PAC opposition ad, released October 31, 2018

"Stashed" - Senate Majority PAC opposition ad, released October 26, 2018

"My Life" - Senate Majority PAC opposition ad, released October 23, 2018

"Battered" - League of Conservation Voters opposition ad, released October 23, 2018

"Differente" - Senate Majority PAC opposition ad, released October 22, 2018

"Swamp" - Nelson opposition ad, released October 20, 2018

"Got Rich" - Nelson opposition ad, released October 17, 2018

"Deserve" - VoteVets opposition ad, released October 12, 2018

"Cuts" - Senate Majority PAC ad, released October 9, 2018

"Soared" - Majority Forward ad, released September 25, 2018

"Speak" - Nelson opposition ad, released September 24, 2018

"Algae" - Nelson opposition ad, released August 7, 2018

"Gouge" - Nelson campaign ad, released July 31, 2018

"Worry" - Priorities USA campaign ad, released July 24, 2018

"Vetoed" - Majority Forward ad, released July 24, 2018

"Oil Slick" - Nelson campaign ad, released June 21, 2018

Noteworthy events

Brett Kavanaugh confirmation vote

See also: Supreme Court vacancy, 2018: An overview

On October 6, 2018, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Fifty senators voted to confirm Kavanaugh's nomination, 48 voted against, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voted present. A simple majority was required to confirm Kavanaugh.

Nelson voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation. He said in a statement, "I've had many questions about Judge Kavanaugh and in an effort to be fair, I wanted to meet with him, but he was not available. Dr. Ford's testimony was compelling and raises questions about his character and, therefore, there needs to be a full FBI investigation. As stated before, I will vote no."

Scott would have voted to support Kavanaugh's confirmation. "I don’t know what happened 36 years ago in suburban Maryland. The truth is that none of us really know. So, I have to go with what I do know–Judge Kavanaugh has been a fair and brilliant Judge, one of our nation’s very best. He should be confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court,” Scott said in a statement."

Debates and forums

October 2, 2018, debate

Nelson and Scott participated in a debate on October 3, 2018, hosted by Telemundo. The candidates discussed environmental issues, gun violence, immigration, and Cuba relations, among other issues.

• Find the Associated Press round-up of the debate here.
• Find the Hill round-up of the debate here.
• Find the NBC Miami round-up of the debate here.

Campaign tactics and strategies

Relationships

President Donald Trump (R)

• Trump appeared at a MAGA rally in Tampa, Florida, on July 31, 2018, to express support for Scott's campaign.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)

• Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) said in an interview on March 27, 2018, "I don’t campaign against Bill Nelson. ... Bill Nelson and I have a very good working relationship." He added that while he had a positive relationship with Scott, he could not "have a better partner" in Nelson. Rubio said that would support the Republican nominee.

Nelson breaks with Andrew Gillum on policy

In a September 10 interview with the Tampa Bay Times, Nelson said that he appreciated the energy that Democratic gubernatorial nominee Andrew Gillum brought to the Democratic ticket but did not agree with him on several issues. These included abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), establishing a single-payer healthcare system, enacting a $15 minimum wage, fully legalizing marijuana, and impeaching President Donald Trump. Nelson added, "I'm entirely comfortable with Andrew. And he with me."

Campaign themes

These were the policy positions listed on the top candidates' websites in September 2018.

Bill Nelson

“	Creating Jobs for Florida’s Future The future of Florida remains bright if we invest in high-paying jobs, education and training our workers. Bill Nelson is working to build a future that works by investing in programs and industries in Florida that create well-paying jobs and careers. As demand continues to grow for workers who have science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) skills and technology advances into automation, employees are forced to retrain and reskill for new jobs, which is why Bill has led efforts to invest in these programs and higher education. “The world is changing and we need to change with it. We need to do everything we can to create additional jobs and opportunities for millions of hardworking people.” — BILL NELSON To help workers and businesses navigate changes in the economy, he introduced the Economic Modernization Act to assist Floridians affected by automation and globalization. Bill is pushing Congress to invest in ways to keep Florida working in the future including tax credits for workers looking to change careers or transition into modernized industries and enhance education-related tax breaks to encourage people to pursue industries in short supply of skilled workers. Bill has worked to ensure the United States trains more STEM-skilled workers to prepare students for careers of the future and help Florida workers transition to a new economy. Protecting Florida’s Environment Florida is ground zero for the impacts of climate change and sea level rise – from tidal flooding in Miami Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Sarasota to the devastation caused by hurricanes in communities across Florida – we need leaders who will protect our state. Bill Nelson stands up to big polluters and corporations to fight and protect Floridians from the growing dangers of climate change. Bill championed legislative efforts to ensure our scientists can study climate change, free from political interference or censorship, and is at the forefront of efforts in the Senate to help Florida communities invest in the infrastructure needed to create more resilient coastlines to prepare for rising sea levels. He is leading the push to help renewable energy companies grow across Florida, while making it easier for homeowners to invest in solar installations. “As long as I’m a Senator, there will never be oil rigs off Florida’s coasts.” — BILL NELSON Bill is a champion of protecting Florida’s coasts and beaches from the risks of offshore oil drilling. In 2006, he passed bipartisan legislation to ban oil and gas activities off Florida’s Gulf Coast. Bill has continued this fight in Congress, seeking to extend the moratorium and calling for greater protections for our entire coastline, including our beaches and local economies along the Gulf and Atlantic Coast. Guaranteeing Access To Health Care From protecting Medicare and Medicaid from cuts to working to keep drug prices low to ensuring Floridians with preexisting conditions have access to health care, Bill Nelson has been a tireless champion for Floridians. As the Affordable Care Act faces new threats and Congress tries to sabotage the law that has helped millions of Floridians get health care, Bill is leading efforts to ensure those with preexisting conditions are not denied health care coverage. He has been on the frontlines to keep health care premiums low, especially as Congress works to repeal the health care law and drive up prices. Bill works across the aisle on solutions, such as a reinsurance fund to help stabilize the marketplace and reduce health care premiums. When Floridians see the price of their prescription drugs rise, Bill fights to keep and improve the Affordable Care Act and to close the gap for Medicare coverage, also known as the donut hole, to lower costs for Florida’s seniors. "I've fought to keep protections for Floridians with preexisting conditions and attempts to the sabotage the law that has helped millions of Floridians get health care." – BILL NELSON Bill Nelson is working every single day to improve access to health care, including the Children’s Health Insurance Program, which provides thousands of Florida children access to affordable care. Nelson was a lead sponsor of legislation to extend funding for CHIP and fiercely advocated for full funding of the program to help Florida kids. Educating For The Future Bill Nelson believes in investing in the future of Florida – our teachers, our students and our schools. A firm believer that all children deserve a quality public education regardless of their zip code or family’s income, Bill Nelson is a steadfast supporter of our students, teachers and public schools. He promotes science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) learning beginning in early elementary school to begin preparing our students and readying our economy for jobs of the future with about 26 million U.S. jobs, or 20 percent of our workforce, requiring STEM skills. He co-authored the American Innovation and Competitiveness Act that authorized several programs to improve gender, racial and socioeconomic diversity in STEM education and in the federal workforce. “If we really want to build a strong middle class, we have to make higher education affordable for our students. I've fought to cap interest rates and fees to help make education more affordable for our students and ease the financial stress that’s weighing down our economy.” – BILL NELSON Bill advocates for career and technical training and job readiness programs for our future workforce. For those who continue on to our colleges and universities, he has pushed to reduce student loan debt, to increase access to Pell grants, and stood up to for-profit colleges which do not prepare our students. Bill introduced legislation to ensure student loan interest rates never go higher than 4 percent and to allow others to refinance their loans at the new lower rates. With the average Florida graduate facing more than $24,000 in student loan debt, Bill is fighting to ensure our students are not priced out of a better future for them and their families. In the Senate, he is a strong supporter of public higher education from state colleges to our historically black colleges and universities and secured funding for key programs and facilities. Keeping Consumers Safe From holding multi-billion dollar corporations accountable to cracking down on criminal fraudsters, Bill Nelson is a leader in protecting consumers. When companies have collected and used consumers’ personally identifiable information for their own profit or violated privacy rules, Bill has called for investigations, led congressional hearings to ensure technology companies and other corporations are honoring and respecting the privacy of American consumers and securing their data. "I've worked to hold companies accountable for failing to safeguard data or inform consumers when that information has been stolen by hackers, refusing to kowtow to special interests who stand in the way of consumer protections. When it comes to doing what’s best for consumers, I stand with consumers." – BILL NELSON Bill is leading comprehensive data security legislation that would protect consumers’ personal information and ensure they have control over how their information is collected and used. In putting consumers first, he has fought to protect Floridians from dangerous products on the shelves and keep automobiles with safety defects off the roads. As a champion of the Motor Vehicle Safety Act, Bill is working to hold auto company executives accountable when they hide flaws and safety defects from the public. And as the world moves toward automation and autonomous vehicles, Bill helped craft a regulatory framework that ensures manufacturers prioritize safety and properly communicate the capabilities of the vehicles. Working for Florida’s Seniors Bill Nelson is a champion for Florida’s seniors, always working to protect the things seniors have spent their lives working for and deserve as he’s fought tirelessly to prevent cuts to Medicare and Social Security. After the passage of the Republican tax bill that gave tax cuts to corporations and drove up the country’s national debt, programs like Medicare and Social Security are under attack, but Bill is standing up to the Republican leadership in Congress to protect health care and financial security for our seniors. “We must keep our promise to older Americans who have worked hard and paid into Social Security and Medicare and work to preserve them for future generations. I've always fought to protect the retirement and health security these vital programs provide and I always will.” — BILL NELSON As seniors face rising drug prices, he is leading the fight in Congress to lower drug costs for older Americans and urged Senate leaders to close the gap in Medicare’s prescription drug coverage, known as the “donut hole,” by 2019 to help lower drug prices for Florida seniors. More older Americans are seeing their Social Security benefits taken to pay for federal debts, like student loans. After working for years for these benefits and working to pay off student loans, Florida seniors are facing new cuts to their benefits. Bill introduced legislation and is working to protect Social Security, because this is a promise our country made to help care for older Americans.	”
—Nelson for U.S. Senate

Rick Scott

“	Governor Rick Scott’s “Make Washington Work” Plan is aimed squarely at reforming the dysfunctional and tired ways of thinking in Washington in order to make it actually work for families across the nation – not just for career politicians in D.C. Read the entire Make Washington Work Plan Here. Term Limits Career politicians are never going to change Washington, which is why Governor Scott is proposing to implement term limits for all members of Congress. Implementing term limits will help ensure elected officials work for Americans, not for themselves. Supermajority Vote To Approve Any Tax Or Fee Increase Just like Governor Scott championed this year in Florida, he will work to require a supermajority vote of two-thirds of each house of Congress to approve any tax or fee increase before it can become law. This proposal helps ensure Congress rightfully treats tax and fee increases as an absolute last resort, not as a knee-jerk reaction to fund government waste. Line Item Veto Just like in Florida, a line item veto gives more oversight to the budget process and helps ensure taxpayer dollars are being spent wisely and with the best return on investment. Governor Scott has saved Floridians nearly $2.4 billion by using his line item veto authority to eliminate more than 1,800 pet projects from state budgets over the past seven and a half years. No Budget, No Pay Governor Scott will work to require Congress to pass an annual budget and meet appropriations bill deadlines, or they will be required to forgo their own salaries until the job is done – no budget, no pay. If Florida business owners failed to budget or do their jobs, they would be forced to shut their doors and families would be out of work. It’s not fair that we do not hold government to the same standards we hold ourselves. To further protect tax payer dollars, if Congress does not pass its spending bills on time, an automatic spending freeze should be implemented. Full-Time Salary For Full-Time Work The gridlocks we see every day in Washington show that Congress clearly doesn’t give themselves enough time to get anything done. As a result, Congress often fails to secure results for the Americans they serve, and frequently rushes to complete its most basic legislative work, even by voting on bills without reading them. Governor Scott will work to require Congress to put in full-time work for a full-time salary, just like hard working Americans across the country. End Government Waste Taxpayers deserve transparency and accountability when it comes to spending their hard-earned dollars. Eliminating the concept of omnibus bills, which can total thousands of pages and trillions of dollars in spending, is an important step to increase transparency and deliberation in Congress – and put our nation on the path to responsible spending. Improve Transparency And Accountability While Congress needs to stop the growth of federal spending, it also needs the best advice it can get in doing so. Unfortunately, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Congress’ non-partisan scorekeeper, does not always fulfill its duty to act in an open and transparent manner when analyzing legislation. Governor Scott’s proposal includes reforming the Congressional Budget Office to improve transparency and accountability. Stop Congress Members From Cashing In As Lobbyists Congress should not serve as a training ground for future lobbyists. Governor Scott will work to end the revolving door by proposing to ban former Members of Congress from lobbying outright – or at the very least, extending the “cooling off” period for Members of Congress to work as lobbyists to a minimum of 10 years. End Congressional Pay Raises And Pensions Congressional members should not have the ability to vote for their own pay raises – especially since every dollar is at the taxpayer’s expense. Governor Scott will work to require that salaries for Congressional members remain locked in from the day they are elected until the day their term ends. Furthermore, serving in Congress should not be a career – and Governor Scott will work to ensure taxpayers no longer have to foot the pension bill for Members of Congress. Stop Unfair Big Government-Run Insurance Subsidies Currently, members of Congress receive insurance subsidies that can total well into the five figures on top of their generous pay. This is unacceptable and Governor Scott will work to stop this unfair and unethical practice.	”
—Scott for Florida

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Bill Nelson

Rick Scott

Timeline

• October 25-31, 2018: In five polls conducted during this time period, Nelson led Scott by 2 percentage points.
• October 31, 2018: President Donald Trump (R) campaigned with Scott at a MAGA rally near Fort Myers.
• October 14-21, 2018: In five polls conducted during this time period, Nelson and Scott traded single-digit leads. Nelson led by a margin high of 9 percentage points and Scott led by a margin high of 5 percentage points.
• October 19, 2018: Senate Majority PAC launched a $1 million digital ad campaign saying that Scott invested in companies harmful to Florida communities.
• October 12, 2018: VoteVets.org spent $4 million on an ad campaign saying that Scott's company defrauded the military's healthcare program.
• October 8, 2018: President Donald Trump (R) appeared at a law enforcement convention with Scott, where he praised Scott for his support of law enforcement officials and discussed Hurricane Michael.
• October 5, 2018
  • Americans for Prosperity announced a seven-figure ad campaign against Nelson focused on his healthcare record.
  • Scott led Nelson by 2 percentage points, 46 percent to 44 percent, in a Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research poll of 476 likely voters. The margin of error 4.5 percent.
• October 2, 2018: Nelson and Scott participated in a debate hosted by Telemundo, where they discussed environmental issues, gun violence, immigration, and Cuba relations, among other issues.
• October 1, 2018: Puerto Rican Gov. Ricardo Rosselló endorsed Nelson.
• September 17, 2018: New Republican PAC spent an additional $1 million on ads against Nelson.
• September 10, 2018: Nelson and Scott were scheduled to debate each other on October 2, 2018, on Telemundo.
• September 5, 2018: Quinnipiac University found Nelson and Scott in a tied race with 49 percent support each. The pollsters surveyed 785 Florida likely voters with a margin of error 4.3 percent.
• August 28, 2018
  • Nelson released his first campaign ad, "Oath," highlighting his military and public service. It was part of an $18 million ad buy running through Election Day.
  • New Republican PAC spent $3 million on an ad campaign calling Nelson the "confused puppet" of Washington Democrats.
• August 1, 2018: Nelson reserved $18 million in ad time starting August 29, the day after the primary in Florida. The Senate Majority PAC also reserved $23 million.
• July 2, 2018: Nelson said he would oppose a Supreme Court nominee to fill Anthony Kennedy's vacancy who would overturn Roe v. Wade.
• June 21, 2018: Former Puerto Rican Governor Alejandro García Padilla endorsed Bill Nelson.
• June 19, 2018: Politico reported that the Democratic Senate Majority PAC had reserved $23 million in television advertising ahead of the election.
• June 14, 2018: The American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees disclosed $953,000 in spending on a television ad campaign supporting Nelson.
• May 30, 2018: Senate Majority PAC and Priorities USA Action launched a $600,000 English- and Spanish-language digital ad campaign highlighting Nelson's opposition to the privatization of Social Security and Medicare and policy support for individuals with pre-existing conditions.
• May 21, 2018: Senate Majority PAC spent $2.2 million on an ad buy highlighting Nelson's military service and calling him "one of America’s most independent senators."
• May 3, 2018: New Republican PAC spent $2.4 million on an ad campaign that criticizes Nelson for his long tenure in office.
• May 1, 2018: Scott launched another $2 million ad campaign calling for term limits and criticizing the efficacy of members of Congress. "If Washington was a business, it would be going bankrupt. It would be bankrupt by now. They don't accomplish anything. They're not solving problems. ... My opinion, you ought to send business people up there to solve problems," Scott says in the ad.
• April 24, 2018: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Scott and launched a $281,000 ad buy in the Tampa market. The Florida Chamber of Commerce also endorsed Scott.
• April 19, 2018: Scott spent $1 million on his first Spanish-language ad in the Miami, Tampa and Orlando media markets. The ad highlights job growth in the state.
• April 17, 2018: In his first senatorial campaign ad, Scott calls for term limits for members of Congress. His campaign spent $2 million on the ad, which is running statewide.
• March 12, 2018: Clearview Research released a poll finding Scott leading Nelson, 43 percent to 41 percent. Fifteen percent of voters were undecided.

Other 2018 statewide elections

See also: States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018

This race took place in one of twenty-two states that held elections for both governor and U.S. Senate in 2018.

A table of where these elections occurred, the names of incumbents prior to the 2018 elections, and links to our coverage of these races can be viewed by clicking "[show]" on the banner below:

States holding both Gubernatorial and Senate elections in 2018
State	Incumbent Governor	Open Seat?	Incumbent Senator	Open Seat?
Arizona	Doug Ducey	No	Jeff Flake	Yes
California	Jerry Brown	Yes	Dianne Feinstein	No
Connecticut	Dan Malloy	Yes	Chris Murphy	No
Florida	Rick Scott	Yes	Bill Nelson	No
Hawaii	David Ige	No	Mazie Hirono	No
Maine	Paul LePage	Yes	Angus King	No
Maryland	Larry Hogan	No	Ben Cardin	No
Massachusetts	Charlie Baker	No	Elizabeth Warren	No
Michigan	Rick Snyder	Yes	Debbie Stabenow	No
Minnesota	Mark Dayton	Yes	Amy Klobuchar	No
Nebraska	Pete Ricketts	No	Deb Fischer	No
Nevada	Brian Sandoval	Yes	Dean Heller	No
New Mexico	Susana Martinez	Yes	Martin Heinrich	No
New York	Andrew Cuomo	No	Kirsten Gillibrand	No
Ohio	John Kasich	Yes	Sherrod Brown	No
Pennsylvania	Tom Wolf	No	Bob Casey, Jr.	No
Rhode Island	Gina Raimondo	No	Sheldon Whitehouse	No
Tennessee	Bill Haslam	Yes	Bob Corker	Yes
Texas	Greg Abbott	No	Ted Cruz	No
Vermont	Phil Scott	No	Bernie Sanders	No
Wisconsin	Scott Walker	No	Tammy Baldwin	No
Wyoming	Matt Mead	Yes	John Barrasso	No

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County	Trump margin of victory in 2016	Obama margin of victory in 2012	Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida	5.06%	1.75%	3.66%
Monroe County, Florida	6.82%	0.44%	4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida	1.11%	5.65%	8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida	2.40%	7.86%	12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.

In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

2016 presidential results by state House district
District	Obama	Romney	2012 Margin	Clinton	Trump	2016 Margin	Party Control
1	36.20%	62.79%	R+26.6	34.08%	62.44%	R+28.4	R
2	40.60%	58.27%	R+17.7	39.85%	55.53%	R+15.7	R
3	22.07%	76.75%	R+54.7	19.63%	76.01%	R+56.4	R
4	25.64%	73.07%	R+47.4	24.90%	69.68%	R+44.8	R
5	25.87%	73.02%	R+47.2	21.51%	76.01%	R+54.5	R
6	28.12%	70.72%	R+42.6	25.59%	70.40%	R+44.8	R
7	35.78%	63.03%	R+27.3	29.54%	67.81%	R+38.3	R
8	76.69%	22.32%	D+54.4	74.29%	22.33%	D+52	D
9	52.23%	46.70%	D+5.5	52.98%	42.92%	D+10.1	D
10	29.54%	69.49%	R+40	24.47%	73.15%	R+48.7	R
11	29.10%	69.98%	R+40.9	28.75%	67.52%	R+38.8	R
12	38.82%	60.18%	R+21.4	39.91%	55.90%	R+16	R
13	66.27%	33.01%	D+33.3	64.06%	33.01%	D+31.1	D
14	67.05%	32.34%	D+34.7	64.74%	32.99%	D+31.8	D
15	43.22%	55.85%	R+12.6	43.85%	52.54%	R+8.7	R
16	36.02%	63.09%	R+27.1	38.53%	57.46%	R+18.9	R
17	29.91%	69.15%	R+39.2	31.55%	64.91%	R+33.4	R
18	27.33%	71.82%	R+44.5	27.27%	69.17%	R+41.9	R
19	31.02%	68.02%	R+37	25.79%	71.54%	R+45.8	R
20	65.02%	33.40%	D+31.6	63.38%	32.58%	D+30.8	D
21	47.01%	51.55%	R+4.5	47.92%	47.87%	D+0.1	R
22	40.28%	58.79%	R+18.5	35.09%	62.28%	R+27.2	R
23	38.65%	60.23%	R+21.6	31.70%	65.06%	R+33.4	R
24	41.79%	57.34%	R+15.6	35.96%	61.17%	R+25.2	R
25	43.38%	55.73%	R+12.4	37.23%	59.47%	R+22.2	R
26	57.57%	41.40%	D+16.2	49.01%	47.49%	D+1.5	D
27	50.25%	48.70%	D+1.6	42.51%	54.04%	R+11.5	R
28	46.01%	52.86%	R+6.9	46.02%	49.59%	R+3.6	R
29	44.35%	54.70%	R+10.4	45.97%	50.16%	R+4.2	R
30	50.06%	48.88%	D+1.2	51.93%	43.61%	D+8.3	R
31	40.55%	58.49%	R+17.9	37.12%	59.50%	R+22.4	R
32	43.05%	56.11%	R+13.1	40.66%	56.10%	R+15.4	R
33	33.03%	66.40%	R+33.4	29.41%	68.70%	R+39.3	R
34	38.74%	60.18%	R+21.4	28.67%	68.26%	R+39.6	R
35	45.66%	53.25%	R+7.6	34.40%	62.35%	R+28	R
36	51.81%	46.55%	D+5.3	37.97%	58.18%	R+20.2	R
37	42.35%	56.41%	R+14.1	34.77%	61.75%	R+27	R
38	44.80%	54.00%	R+9.2	39.90%	56.32%	R+16.4	R
39	43.29%	55.62%	R+12.3	38.74%	57.77%	R+19	R
40	46.30%	52.68%	R+6.4	41.48%	54.62%	R+13.1	R
41	48.78%	50.29%	R+1.5	45.76%	51.24%	R+5.5	R
42	49.88%	49.23%	D+0.7	46.82%	49.98%	R+3.2	R
43	74.04%	25.31%	D+48.7	73.13%	24.03%	D+49.1	D
44	45.77%	53.48%	R+7.7	51.21%	45.05%	D+6.2	R
45	68.39%	30.95%	D+37.4	67.75%	29.32%	D+38.4	D
46	85.10%	14.40%	D+70.7	82.72%	14.71%	D+68	D
47	49.79%	49.04%	D+0.8	53.85%	41.40%	D+12.5	R
48	71.31%	27.89%	D+43.4	71.71%	25.05%	D+46.7	D
49	59.87%	38.85%	D+21	61.07%	33.94%	D+27.1	D
50	46.33%	52.71%	R+6.4	46.10%	49.78%	R+3.7	R
51	43.21%	55.60%	R+12.4	37.31%	58.51%	R+21.2	R
52	39.39%	59.51%	R+20.1	36.49%	59.05%	R+22.6	R
53	48.93%	49.90%	R+1	42.52%	53.45%	R+10.9	R
54	39.76%	59.51%	R+19.8	37.01%	60.11%	R+23.1	R
55	38.22%	60.83%	R+22.6	31.47%	66.00%	R+34.5	R
56	41.15%	57.81%	R+16.7	35.36%	61.69%	R+26.3	R
57	42.15%	56.94%	R+14.8	42.01%	54.38%	R+12.4	R
58	46.77%	52.09%	R+5.3	43.06%	53.20%	R+10.1	R
59	49.52%	49.33%	D+0.2	47.68%	48.08%	R+0.4	R
60	45.69%	53.23%	R+7.5	47.16%	48.50%	R+1.3	R
61	84.25%	14.95%	D+69.3	80.00%	16.79%	D+63.2	D
62	64.91%	34.12%	D+30.8	63.03%	33.28%	D+29.8	D
63	52.82%	46.09%	D+6.7	53.22%	42.91%	D+10.3	R
64	43.41%	55.66%	R+12.3	43.51%	52.80%	R+9.3	R
65	45.20%	53.72%	R+8.5	41.15%	55.05%	R+13.9	R
66	47.12%	51.78%	R+4.7	41.07%	55.29%	R+14.2	R
67	52.12%	46.53%	D+5.6	45.78%	49.98%	R+4.2	R
68	54.01%	44.56%	D+9.5	50.98%	44.15%	D+6.8	D
69	51.25%	47.57%	D+3.7	46.57%	49.53%	R+3	R
70	79.17%	20.00%	D+59.2	73.65%	23.39%	D+50.3	D
71	45.45%	53.64%	R+8.2	42.72%	53.89%	R+11.2	R
72	47.80%	51.26%	R+3.5	46.03%	50.71%	R+4.7	D
73	37.59%	61.60%	R+24	35.82%	61.14%	R+25.3	R
74	42.64%	56.48%	R+13.8	37.10%	60.20%	R+23.1	R
75	42.40%	56.68%	R+14.3	34.70%	62.49%	R+27.8	R
76	35.45%	64.01%	R+28.6	35.24%	61.90%	R+26.7	R
77	41.60%	57.61%	R+16	36.05%	60.86%	R+24.8	R
78	44.44%	54.88%	R+10.4	42.96%	53.85%	R+10.9	R
79	45.93%	53.26%	R+7.3	39.89%	57.01%	R+17.1	R
80	38.79%	60.51%	R+21.7	36.96%	60.49%	R+23.5	R
81	60.36%	39.13%	D+21.2	59.06%	39.12%	D+19.9	D
82	38.70%	60.58%	R+21.9	36.91%	60.22%	R+23.3	R
83	48.78%	50.42%	R+1.6	43.71%	53.43%	R+9.7	R
84	53.34%	45.89%	D+7.5	47.96%	49.59%	R+1.6	D
85	47.28%	52.04%	R+4.8	44.74%	52.71%	R+8	R
86	58.97%	40.46%	D+18.5	56.40%	41.24%	D+15.2	D
87	68.41%	30.79%	D+37.6	65.09%	32.03%	D+33.1	D
88	82.26%	17.18%	D+65.1	78.19%	19.67%	D+58.5	D
89	47.47%	51.83%	R+4.4	48.96%	48.44%	D+0.5	R
90	62.95%	36.37%	D+26.6	59.38%	38.20%	D+21.2	D
91	58.67%	40.92%	D+17.8	59.17%	39.23%	D+19.9	D
92	74.08%	25.42%	D+48.7	71.50%	26.66%	D+44.8	D
93	47.43%	51.88%	R+4.5	48.32%	49.43%	R+1.1	R
94	83.50%	16.05%	D+67.5	81.01%	17.21%	D+63.8	D
95	86.68%	12.99%	D+73.7	85.09%	13.47%	D+71.6	D
96	61.11%	38.32%	D+22.8	60.59%	37.30%	D+23.3	D
97	65.66%	33.79%	D+31.9	65.26%	32.41%	D+32.9	D
98	60.99%	38.39%	D+22.6	61.02%	36.58%	D+24.4	D
99	61.62%	37.75%	D+23.9	59.47%	38.07%	D+21.4	D
100	57.57%	41.85%	D+15.7	58.15%	39.86%	D+18.3	D
101	79.29%	20.19%	D+59.1	76.54%	21.27%	D+55.3	D
102	85.86%	13.86%	D+72	83.21%	15.08%	D+68.1	D
103	54.82%	44.76%	D+10.1	58.71%	39.21%	D+19.5	R
104	58.34%	41.21%	D+17.1	62.33%	35.40%	D+26.9	D
105	53.14%	46.37%	D+6.8	56.16%	41.22%	D+14.9	R
106	31.21%	68.26%	R+37.1	33.84%	63.71%	R+29.9	R
107	86.16%	13.52%	D+72.6	83.68%	14.67%	D+69	D
108	89.58%	10.12%	D+79.5	87.11%	11.24%	D+75.9	D
109	90.13%	9.58%	D+80.6	86.38%	12.14%	D+74.2	D
110	50.15%	49.43%	D+0.7	52.71%	45.14%	D+7.6	R
111	47.97%	51.64%	R+3.7	52.16%	45.66%	D+6.5	R
112	53.53%	45.94%	D+7.6	61.62%	35.70%	D+25.9	D
113	63.42%	35.97%	D+27.5	67.40%	30.24%	D+37.2	D
114	50.14%	49.27%	D+0.9	55.75%	41.60%	D+14.2	D
115	49.45%	50.03%	R+0.6	54.08%	43.37%	D+10.7	R
116	44.48%	55.04%	R+10.6	50.91%	46.43%	D+4.5	R
117	82.64%	17.02%	D+65.6	78.36%	19.57%	D+58.8	D
118	51.39%	48.14%	D+3.3	54.87%	42.54%	D+12.3	D
119	50.32%	49.20%	D+1.1	55.15%	42.23%	D+12.9	R
120	52.28%	46.85%	D+5.4	49.21%	47.52%	D+1.7	R
Total	50.01%	49.13%	D+0.9	47.82%	49.02%	R+1.2	-
Source: Daily Kos

Election history

2016

See also: United States Senate election in Florida, 2016

The race for Florida's U.S. Senate seat was one of nine competitive battleground races in 2016 that that helped Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio (R) defeated U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), Iraq war veteran Paul Stanton (L), and nine independent and write-in candidates in the general election, which took place on November 8, 2016. According to Politico, Rubio was “the first Republican senator from the Sunshine State ever to win reelection in a presidential election year.”

Rubio called Murphy "hyper-partisan," "a rubber stamp for, God forbid, a Clinton presidency," and accused him of fabricating his qualifications. Murphy criticized Rubio, saying, "Sen. Rubio has the worst vote attendance record of any Florida senator in nearly 50 years." Murphy's spokeswoman Galia Slayen said, "Marco Rubio is willing to abandon his responsibility to Floridians and hand over our country's national security to Donald Trump, as long as it advances his own political career."

In his victory speech, Rubio said, “[I] hope that I and my colleagues as we return to work in Washington D.C. can set a better example how political discourse should exist in this country. And I know people feel betrayed and you have a right to. Every major institution in our society has failed us — the media, the government, big business, Wall Street, academia — they have all failed us. So people are so frustrated and angry. But we must channel that anger and frustration into something positive. Let it move us forward as energy to confront and solve our challenges and our problems.”

U.S. Senate, Florida General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Marco Rubio Incumbent	52%	4,835,191
	Democratic	Patrick Murphy	44.3%	4,122,088
	Libertarian	Paul Stanton	2.1%	196,956
	Independent	Bruce Nathan	0.6%	52,451
	Independent	Tony Khoury	0.5%	45,820
	Independent	Steven Machat	0.3%	26,918
	Independent	Basil Dalack	0.2%	22,236
	N/A	Write-in	0%	160
Total Votes				9,301,820
Source: Florida Division of Elections

U.S. Senate, Florida Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Marco Rubio Incumbent	72%	1,029,830
Carlos Beruff	18.5%	264,427
Dwight Young	6.4%	91,082
Ernie Rivera	3.2%	45,153
Total Votes		1,430,492
Source: Florida Division of Elections

U.S. Senate, Florida Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Patrick Murphy	58.9%	665,985
Alan Grayson	17.7%	199,929
Pam Keith	15.4%	173,919
Roque De La Fuente	5.4%	60,810
Reginald Luster	2.6%	29,138
Total Votes		1,129,781
Source: Florida Division of Elections

U.S. Senate, Florida Libertarian Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Paul Stanton	73.5%	2,946
Augustus Invictus Sol	26.5%	1,063
Total Votes		4,009
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2012

See also: United States Senate elections in Florida, 2012

On November 6, 2012, Bill Nelson won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Connie Mack (R), Bill Gaylor (I), and Chris Borgia (I) in the general election.

U.S. Senate, Florida General Election, 2012

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Bill Nelson Incumbent	55.2%	4,523,451
	Republican	Connie Mack	42.2%	3,458,267
	Independent	Bill Gaylor	1.5%	126,079
	Independent	Chris Borgia	1%	82,089
	N/A	Write-ins	0%	60
Total Votes				8,189,946
Source: Florida Election Watch "U.S. Senator"

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. Senate wave elections
Year	President	Party	Election type	Senate seats change	Senate majority
1932	Hoover	R	Presidential	-13	D (flipped)
1958	Eisenhower	R	Second midterm	-12	D
1946	Truman	D	First midterm	-10	R (flipped)
1980	Carter	D	Presidential	-9	R (flipped)
2014	Obama	D	Second midterm	-9	R (flipped)
1942	Roosevelt	D	Third midterm	-8	D
2008	George W. Bush	D	Presidential	-8	D
1926	Coolidge	R	First midterm	-7	R
1930	Hoover	R	First midterm	-7	R
1986	Reagan	R	Second midterm	-7	D (flipped)

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

• Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in Florida.
• Republicans held 16 of 27 U.S. House seats in Florida.

State executives

• As of September 2018, Republicans held six out of nine state executive positions. The other three positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
• The governor of Florida was Republican Rick Scott. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.

State legislature

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Florida State Legislature. They had a 22-16 majority in the state Senate and a 75-41 majority in the state House.

Trifecta status

• Florida was under Republican trifecta control since the governor was a Republican and both chambers of the Florida State Legislature were under Republican control.

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• One U.S. Senate seat
• 27 U.S. House seats
• Governor and lieutenant governor
• Three other state executive offices
• 20 out of 40 state Senate seats
• 120 state House seats
• Four of seven state Supreme Court seats
• Municipal elections in Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Orange, and Pinellas counties and the city of Jacksonville

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
	Florida	U.S.
Total population:	20,244,914	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	53,625	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	76%	73.6%
Black/African American:	16.1%	12.6%
Asian:	2.6%	5.1%
Native American:	0.3%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0.1%	0.2%
Two or more:	2.4%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	23.7%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	86.9%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	27.3%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$47,507	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	19.8%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	49.0%	Hillary Clinton	47.8%	1.2%
2012	Barack Obama	50.0%	Mitt Romney	49.1%	0.9%
2008	Barack Obama	51.0%	John McCain	48.2%	2.8%
2004	George W. Bush	52.10%	John Kerry	47.09%	5.01%
2000	George W. Bush	48.847%	Al Gore	48.838%	0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Marco Rubio	52.0%	Patrick Murphy	44.3%	7.7%
2012	Bill Nelson	55.2%	Connie Mack	42.2%	13.0%
2010	Marco Rubio	48.9%	Charlie Crist	29.7%	19.2%
2006	Bill Nelson	60.3%	Katherine Harris	38.1%	22.2%
2004	Mel Martinez	49.4%	Betty Castor	48.3%	1.1%
2000	Bill Nelson	51.0%	Bill McCollum	46.2%	4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera	48.1%	Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein	47.1%	1%
2010	Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll	48.9%	Alex Sink/Rod Smith	47.7%	1.2%
2006	Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp	52.2%	Jim Davis/Daryl Jones	45.1%	7.1%
2002	Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan	56.0%	Bill McBride/Tom Rossin	43.2%	12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	17	62.9%	10	37.0%	R+7
2014	17	62.9%	10	37.0%	R+7
2012	17	62.9%	10	37.0%	R+7
2010	19	76.0%	6	24.0%	R+13
2008	15	60.0%	10	40.0%	R+5
2006	16	64.0%	9	36.0%	R+7
2004	18	66.7%	7	33.3%	R+11
2002	17	66.7%	8	33.3%	R+9
2000	15	57.9%	8	42.1%	R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
Governor	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	I	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

See also

• United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2018
• United States Senate elections, 2018
• Bill Nelson
• United States Senate election in Florida (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)
• United States Senate election in Florida (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

Footnotes

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Florida's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Ashley Moody (R)

Rick Scott (R)

Representatives

District 1

Jimmy Patronis (R)

District 2

Neal Dunn (R)

District 3

Kat Cammack (R)

District 4

Aaron Bean (R)

District 5

John Rutherford (R)

District 6

Randy Fine (R)

District 7

Cory Mills (R)

District 8

Mike Haridopolos (R)

District 9

Darren Soto (D)

District 10

Maxwell Frost (D)

District 11

Daniel Webster (R)

District 12

Gus Bilirakis (R)

District 13

Anna Luna (R)

District 14

Kathy Castor (D)

District 15

Laurel Lee (R)

District 16

Vern Buchanan (R)

District 17

Greg Steube (R)

District 18

Scott Franklin (R)

District 19

Byron Donalds (R)

District 20

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D)

District 21

Brian Mast (R)

District 22

Lois Frankel (D)

District 23

Jared Moskowitz (D)

District 24

Frederica Wilson (D)

District 25

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

District 26

Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

District 27

Maria Elvira Salazar (R)

District 28

Carlos Gimenez (R)

Republican Party (22)

Democratic Party (8)