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United States Senate election in Texas, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 22 - Nov. 2
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 7
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2014
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U.S. Senate, Texas |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: December 11, 2017 |
Primary: March 6, 2018 Primary runoff: May 22, 2018 (if needed) General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Ted Cruz (Republican) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Texas |
Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Likely Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th • 27th • 28th • 29th • 30th • 31st • 32nd • 33rd • 34th • 35th • 36th • 27th (special) Texas elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Freshman Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) defeated Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) and entrepreneur Neal Dikeman (L) in the general election for U.S. Senate in Texas on November 6, 2018.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.
Although Texas had voted to send a Republican to the White House, U.S. Senate, and governor’s office in every statewide election since 1994, two election forecasters called this race a Toss-up or Leans Republican. Cruz won his first term in 2012, defeating former state Rep. Paul Sadler (D) by 16 percentage points, 57 percent to 41 percent.
“If this race looks different than the rest, that’s probably because it is a strong Democratic challenger raising prolific sums of money and tons of earned media," said Lyceum Poll Research Director Josh Blank.[1]
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. Senate Texas
Incumbent Ted Cruz defeated Beto O'Rourke and Neal Dikeman in the general election for U.S. Senate Texas on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Ted Cruz (R) | 50.9 | 4,260,553 | |
Beto O'Rourke (D) | 48.3 | 4,045,632 | ||
Neal Dikeman (L) | 0.8 | 65,470 |
Total votes: 8,371,655 | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Bob McNeil (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Texas
Beto O'Rourke defeated Sema Hernandez and Edward Kimbrough in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Texas on March 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Beto O'Rourke | 61.8 | 640,769 | |
Sema Hernandez | 23.7 | 245,847 | ||
Edward Kimbrough | 14.5 | 149,851 |
Total votes: 1,036,467 | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. Senate Texas
Incumbent Ted Cruz defeated Mary Miller, Bruce Jacobson Jr., Stefano de Stefano, and Geraldine Sam in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Texas on March 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Ted Cruz | 85.3 | 1,315,146 | |
Mary Miller | 6.1 | 94,274 | ||
Bruce Jacobson Jr. | 4.2 | 64,452 | ||
Stefano de Stefano | 2.9 | 44,251 | ||
Geraldine Sam | 1.5 | 22,767 |
Total votes: 1,540,890 | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Candidate profiles
Party: Democratic
Incumbent: No
Political office: U.S. House, Texas' 16th Congressional District (assumed office: 2013); El Paso City Council (2005-2011)
Biography: O'Rourke's professional experience includes working for a Manhattan web technology company and co-founding Stanton Street Technology. He was elected to serve on the El Paso City Council from 2005 to 2011 and first elected to represent Texas' 16th Congressional District in 2012. He earned a B.A. from Columbia University.[2][3]
- O'Rourke emphasized his commitment to bipartisanship while promoting a progressive policy platform on abortion, gun violence, and healthcare. He said he consistently hosted monthly town halls for five years with his constituents.[2][4][5]
- O'Rourke said of his grassroots campaign to reach out to voters in conservative counties in the state, “I don't know if I'm going to win more votes than the last Democrat who ran in those counties, but I know that not enough Democrats have been showing up in those counties in the first place. And they haven't been reflecting the needs of those counties."[5][6]
Party: Republican
Incumbent: Yes
Political office: U.S. Senate, Texas (assumed office: 2013); Solicitor General of Texas (2003-2008)
Biography: Cruz previously worked as a law clerk to Chief Justice of the United States William Rehnquist, associate deputy attorney general for the U.S. Department of Justice, director of the Office of Policy Planning for the Federal Trade Commission, and the solicitor general of Texas from 2003 to 2008. He was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2012. Cruz graduated from Princeton University and Harvard Law School.[8]
- Cruz linked his conservative platform to state pride with a “Tough as Texas” campaign slogan. "In Texas, we believe in low taxes, low regulation, low debt. We want Washington D.C. the heck off our backs,” he said at a campaign rally.[9][10]
- Cruz highlighted policy achievements over policy positions, including his opposition to stricter gun ownership regulations; introduction of Kate's Law to increase penalties for deported individuals who re-enter the U.S.; and authorship of the the NASA Transition Authorization Act to secure Texas jobs.[11]
- Cruz characterized O'Rourke as reckless and extremist on drug and immigration policy in several negative campaign ads.[12]
Party: Libertarian
Incumbent: No
Political office: None
Biography: Dikeman founded Jane Capital at 25 and co-founded seven other technology startups ranging from energy to software. He was also a venture capitalist at the parent company of YellowPages.com and at Shell Oil. Heading into the election, Dikeman was an active investor and the chairman of the Cleantech.org network and Greenhome.com.[13]
- Dikeman said he was running for U.S. Senate for his children. He said, "Together we should be building our sons’ and daughters’ futures, not letting our elected officials borrow from it to support our lifestyle. The partisan politics has to stop."[14]
- Dikeman identified addressing the national debt, inequality, and wage stagnation as priorities.[14]
- Dikeman also said privacy was a priority. He said, "Our rights and our privacy are increasingly challenged in a digital, connected age, and our government is part of the problem, not the solution."[14]
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate election in Texas, General election: Cruz vs. O'Rourke | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Other/Undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||||
Trafalgar Group November 3-5, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 43% | 5% | +/-2.1 | 2,135 | |||||||||||||
Emerson October 28-30, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 47% | 2% | +/-3.7 | 781 | |||||||||||||
UT Tyler Polling Center October 15-28, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 39% | 15% | +/-3.0 | 1,033 | |||||||||||||
Quinnipiac University October 22-28, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 46% | 3% | +/-3.5 | 1,078 | |||||||||||||
CBS 11/Dixie Strategies October 25-26, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 42% | 5% | +/-4.0 | 588 | |||||||||||||
University of Texas/Texas Tribune October 15-21, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 45% | 4% | +/-3.2 | 927 | |||||||||||||
GBA Strategies October 18-21, 2018 | End Citizens United | 50% | 46% | 4% | +/-3.2 | 1,298 | |||||||||||||
Reuters October 12-18, 2018 | N/A | 49% | 44% | 7% | +/-3.2 | 1,298 | |||||||||||||
CNN/SRSS October 9-13, 2018 | N/A | 52% | 45% | 3% | +/-4.5 | 716 | |||||||||||||
WPA Intelligence October 8-13, 2018 | Club for Growth Action | 52% | 43% | 5% | +/-3.5 | 801 | |||||||||||||
New York Times/Siena College October 8-11, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 43% | 6% | +/-3.6 | 800 | |||||||||||||
Quinnipiac University October 3-9, 2018 | N/A | 54% | 45% | 2% | +/-4.4 | 730 | |||||||||||||
CBS News/YouGov October 2-5, 2018 | N/A | 50% | 44% | 6% | +/-4.2 | 881 | |||||||||||||
Emerson October 1-5, 2018 | N/A | 47% | 42% | 11% | +/-4.5 | 500 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 50.5% | 43.86% | 5.57% | +/-3.61 | 969 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
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PredictIt Prices
This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ted Cruz | Republican Party | $45,668,718 | $45,990,176 | $157,959 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Beto O'Rourke | Democratic Party | $80,344,836 | $80,458,720 | $284,816 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Neal Dikeman | Libertarian Party | $33,732 | $33,398 | $333 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Satellite spending
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[15][16][17]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
- Club for Growth planned to invest "seven figures" to support Cruz's re-election, Washington Examiner reported in August 2018. They made an $868,000 ad buy in September 2018.[18][19]
- Ending Spending spent $950,000 on an ad buy against O'Rourke in October 2018.[20]
- The pro-Cruz super PAC Texans Are reserved $750,000 in ad time in the Corpus Christi, San Antonio, and Waco markets for September 2018.[21] The group made an additional $1.1 million ad buy in September 2018.[22][19]
- The anti-Cruz super PAC Texas Forever made a $1.2 million advertising buy in the Dallas-Fort Worth market in October 2018 focused on Cruz's healthcare policy.[23]
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[24]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[25][26][27]
Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Texas, 2018 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. |
Policy stances
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
In July 2018, O'Rourke said that he was willing to discuss abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) but challenged that eliminating ICE would not necessarily address the practice of family separations employed by those agencies. Cruz called this position radical.[28]
O'Rourke countered by highlighting a comment Cruz made in June 2018 about the family separation policy. "When you see Democrats saying don't separate kids from their parents, what they're really saying is don't arrest illegal aliens," Cruz said. He later said, "We should all agree that families should stay together.”[28]
Campaign advertisements
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
Beto O'Rourke
O'Rourke's first campaign ad focused on his time on the campaign trail, visiting all 254 counties in the state and engaging with each community regardless of background or political ideology.
Support
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Oppose
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Ted Cruz
Cruz's first general election campaign ads, released in August 2018, focused on Cruz's response to Hurricane Harvey and engagement with the communities impacted by the storm.
Support
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Oppose
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Noteworthy events
Brett Kavanaugh confirmation vote
- See also: Supreme Court vacancy, 2018: An overview
On October 6, 2018, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Fifty senators voted to confirm Kavanaugh's nomination, 48 voted against, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voted present. A simple majority was required to confirm Kavanaugh.[29]
Cruz voted for Kavanaugh's confirmation on October 6, 2018. He said in a statement, "Donald Trump promised to nominate constitutionalists who would defend the Constitution, who would defend the Bill of Rights. ... I believe that’s what the American people want. Judges who will follow the law, who will be faithful to the Constitution, who will uphold our fundamental liberties. Free speech, religious liberty, the Second Amendment, the Tenth Amendment, the fundamental liberties protected of every American in the United States Constitution."[30]
O'Rourke said he would have voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation. "We need a Supreme Court Justice who believes in voting rights. In a state where you can be fired for being gay, a Supreme Court Justice who believes in civil rights. A state that's the epicenter of the maternal mortality crisis, a Justice who believes in a woman`s right to make her own decision about her own body and have access to the healthcare that ensures that she can. [Kavanaugh] fails the bar on each and every single one of those tests," he said in an interview on October 9, 2018.[31]
Debates and forums
October 16, 2018, debate
Cruz and O'Rourke participated in a debate on October 16, 2018, at the studios of KENS 5 in San Antonio. The candidates discussed the government shutdown, border security, and the Trump administration, among other issues.[32]
- Find the CBS News round-up of the debate here.
- Find the New York Times round-up of the debate here.
- Find the Texas Tribune round-up of the debate here.
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September 21, 2018, debate
Cruz and O'Rourke participated in a debate on September 21, 2018, hosted by Southern Methodist University and moderated by NBC 5 political reporter Julie Fine and Dallas Morning News political writer Gromer Jeffers. The candidates discussed gun legislation, immigration, the Trump administration, and police-related shootings, among other issues.[33]
- Find the Dallas News round-up of the debate here.
- Find the Houston Chronicle round-up of the debate here.
- Find the NPR round-up of the debate here.
- Find the Texas Tribune round-up of the debate here.
- Find the Vox round-up of the debate here.
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Campaign themes
These were the policy positions listed on the top candidates' websites in September 2018.
Beto O'Rourke
“ |
Agriculture Agriculture has always been and will continue to be a vital part of the Texas economic fabric. Today, ag has an annual economic impact of over $100 billion and employs over 600,000 Texans, many of whom are individual or family farmers. While agriculture is certainly a bright spot for the Texas economy, we must continue to support the families that provide the food and fiber on which we all depend. Steps we should take to ensure Texas farmers can thrive:
Disability Rights When the United States adopted the Americans with Disabilities Act, we became the first country in the world to pass comprehensive civil rights legislation for individuals with disabilities. Today, we must protect and build on that legacy to ensure the 3 million Texans with disabilities have an equal opportunity to participate in our communities, enjoy a high-quality life and live with dignity. Here’s how we can work together to achieve that:
Economy All workers should benefit from the economic growth they help create. Everyone has a stake in prosperity. We have to promote fair and transparent markets that allow every Texan to compete and thrive.
Education Every Texan deserves access to a quality education that will allow them to reach their full potential. It is the surest path to individual success and for the collective success of our state and country.
Energy and the Environment It is crucial now more than ever that the U.S. and world leaders act urgently to address the issue of climate change. We must ensure the funding and independence of organizations like the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) so that they can provide necessary climate science research. Other steps we can take to promote energy and environmental reforms include:
Supporting stronger land-use policies in Texas. Equality All Americans must be treated equally under the law. Steps we can take to achieve this goal include:
Government Accountability We can’t achieve this until our government is reflective of and responsive to the people it purports to serve and represent. Texans deserve a government that performs for them and is a good steward of taxpayer dollars. Here’s how we get that done:
Gun Safety Texas has a proud and honorable tradition of responsible gun ownership for hunting, sport, self-defense, and collecting. Like so many Texans, Beto learned to safely handle and shoot a gun at a young age — taught by his Uncle Raymond who was a sheriff’s deputy and a jail captain. That shared heritage — that uniquely Texas experience — means that our state should lead the way in preserving the Second Amendment while working together to ensure people can live without fear of gun violence in their communities. We should:
Healthcare Healthcare is a moral question that transcends politics – it is a basic human right, not a privilege. 4.3 million Texans – including over 600,000 children – can’t see a doctor, or when they do, they’re so sick they have no choice but to go to the Emergency Room where the cost will be many times more expensive and the outcome will be worse. When a mother forgoes a routine mammogram because she is uninsured, or a father ignores chronic pain because he didn’t qualify for a subsidy to buy insurance, everyone’s healthcare costs are likely to be greater in the long-term. We want our parents and our children to be healthy and live to their full potential. This is much more likely when they have access to the healthcare they need. Steps that we should take together to transform healthcare include:
Higher Education
Immigration Much of our strength, success, and security as a state and as a country depends on the immigrants who contribute to our society as together we build the American Dream. Any honest immigration reform must reflect the value of immigrants, refugees, and asylum-seekers by providing a path to work, family reunification and citizenship. At a time when the border with Mexico has never been safer, and when we’ve never spent so much on border security, the surest way to improve safety and security is not to build a wall or spend billions more, but to ensure that we are maximizing the potential from everyone in this state, treating each other with respect and dignity. Here’s how we do that:
Jobs We owe it to unemployed and underemployed Texans to connect them with high value jobs by bringing those jobs to Texas. We must ensure that every Texan benefits from the country’s economic growth and that every person who is willing to work has a chance to.
Justice We imprison more of our own people than does any other country on the planet. Our system of imprisonment is biased against African Americans and Latinos and criminalizes the poor. This must end. We can be more effective at rehabilitation and improve safety in our communities at a much lower cost while improving the opportunities for young people to achieve to their full potential. To do so we must do the following:
National Security Congress has avoided its responsibility to provide oversight for the wars the U.S. is fighting around the world. We’re at war in six countries right now and fighting enemies that didn’t exist when Congress authorized the global war on terrorism following 9/11. We need to support our service members by ensuring this country has defined victory; has adopted a comprehensive strategy to achieve it; and is willing to commit the resources and leadership to see it through.
Seniors Texas seniors have built the families, communities, and businesses we now enjoy. We owe it to them to honor and protect the commitment we made to care for them through Social Security and Medicare.
Veterans Our veterans should receive the care and dignity they have earned. That begins with ensuring that every veteran can receive access to quality healthcare, timely resolutions to their disability claims and appeals, and sustainable housing.
Women's Health Whether it be cervical cancer screenings, family planning help or potentially lifesaving prenatal care, we have made it indefensibly difficult for women to access reproductive healthcare. This is especially troubling given that Texas has one of the highest rates of maternal mortality in the developed world and it directly affects our communities of color. We must take necessary steps toward improving women’s access to affordable and quality healthcare, which include:
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—Beto for Texas[35] |
Ted Cruz
“ |
Proven Leader. Proven Record. Ted Cruz understands the unique history of our state, and fights for our values every day in the U.S. Senate. As our U.S. Senator, Cruz has consistently
Ted is consistently on the front line of the issues of the day and delivering for over 28 million Texans. Most candidates run on a list of issues, but Ted has always run on his record. That record is consistent, conservative, and clear: Ted Cruz works for Texas. Defending the Constitution “Ted Cruz has been a tireless defender of the Constitution and the founding principles that have made this the greatest country the world has ever known.” - Utah Senator Mike Lee
Successfully defended the constitutionality of the Texas Ten Commandments monument, winning a 5-4 landmark decision before the U.S. Supreme Court.
Jobs and Opportunity
Limiting Washington's Power
Second Amendment “Ted Cruz is one of our nation’s leading defenders of the Second Amendment. For over a decade, Ted has fought tirelessly to defend our constitutional right to keep and bear arms, and his leadership was absolutely critical to our major victories before the U.S. Supreme Court.” – NRA executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre
Securing the Border “We have to have an advocate in Congress, which I believe is Ted Cruz.” - Border Patrol Agent Brandon Judd President of the National Border Patrol Council
Servicemen and Women
Standing with Israel “Since arriving in Washington four years ago, Cruz has arguably been Israel’s most avid defender in the Senate.” Caroline B Glick The Jerusalem Post
Introduced measure to provide necessary funding for Israel’s missile defense, Arrow System, David’s Sling and Iron Dome.
Texas Values “Since Ted Cruz was elected to the U.S. Senate, he has done everything he said he’d do for Texans, and more.” –Texas Governor Greg Abbott
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” |
—Ted Cruz for Senate[36] |
Social media
Twitter accounts
Tweets by BetoORourke Tweets by tedcruz
Facebook accounts
Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.
Timeline
- October 29, 2018: In a Quinnipiac University poll of 1,078 likely voters, Cruz led O'Rourke by 5 percentage points, 51 percent to 46 percent. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.
- October 26, 2018: The anti-Cruz super PAC Texas Forever made a $1.2 million advertising buy in the Dallas-Fort Worth market focused on Cruz's healthcare policy.[23]
- October 22, 2018: President Donald Trump (R) held a rally for Cruz in Houston.[37]
- October 16, 2018:
- Cruz led O'Rourke by 7 percentage points, 52 percent to 45 percent, in a CNN/SRSS poll of 716 likely voters. The margin of error was 4.5 percent.
- Cruz and O'Rourke debated at the studios of KENS 5 in San Antonio. The candidates discussed the government shutdown, border security, and the Trump administration, among other issues.
- October 15, 2018: Cruz led O'Rourke by 9 percentage points, 52 percent to 43 percent, in a WPA Intelligence poll of 801 likely voters. The margin of error was 3.5 percent.
- October 12, 2018: O’Rourke announced that he had raised $38 million in the third quarter of 2018, setting the record for the most money raised in a single quarter by a U.S. Senate candidate. The O’Rourke campaign said there were more than 802,000 individual contributions and that the majority of the fundraising came from Texas. Cruz raised $12 million in the same time period, bringing in more than double what he had raised in the second quarter of 2018.[38]
- October 10, 2018: In three public opinion polls released in the first two weeks of October, Cruz led O'Rourke by a margin of 5 to 9 percentage points.
- October 2, 2018: The Cruz campaign released an opposition ad highlighting comments O'Rourke made critical of the criminal justice system.
- September 18, 2018: Quinnipiac University released a poll of 807 likely voters finding Cruz ahead of O'Rourke by a margin of 9 points, 54 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error was 4.1 percent.[39]
- September 13, 2018: Texans Are spent $605,000 on campaign ads opposing O'Rourke.[40]
- September 4, 2018: Club for Growth spent at least $200,000 on an ad criticizing O'Rourke for his 2006 support of a development project that involved his developer father-in-law, Bill Sanders, when he served on the El Paso City Council.[41]
- August 31, 2018: President Donald Trump (R) tweeted that he planned to hold a rally in Texas in October to support Cruz's campaign.[42]
- August 22, 2018: Cruz led O'Rourke by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, in an NBC News/Marist poll of 759 registered voters. The margin of error was 3.8 percent.[43]
- August 13, 2018: The O'Rourke campaign announced that it had made a $1.3 million media buy in 20 Texas markets.[44]
- August 3, 2018: Cruz released his first television ads of the campaign season: one presents O'Rourke as extremist and reckless and the other highlights Cruz's work on Hurricane Harvey relief.[45]
- July 17, 2018: O'Rouke said he would vote to impeach President Donald Trump (R). "Impeachment, much like an indictment, shows that there is enough there for the case to proceed and at this point there is certainly enough there for the case to proceed," he said. A Cruz spokesperson responded, "O'Rourke's extremist views on impeaching the President of the United States put him in the fringe of the liberal movement—even to the left of Nancy Pelosi, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren."[46]
- July 12, 2018: In the second quarter of 2018, O'Rourke raised more than Cruz, $10.4 million to $4.6 million. O'Rourke also had more cash on hand with $14 million to Cruz's $10.4 million.[47]
Other 2018 statewide elections
This race took place in one of twenty-two states that held elections for both governor and U.S. Senate in 2018.
A table of where these elections occurred, the names of incumbents prior to the 2018 elections, and links to our coverage of these races can be viewed by clicking "[show]" on the banner below:
2016 Pivot Counties
Texas featured one congressional district that intersects with one or more Pivot Counties. These 206 Pivot Counties voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.
The 206 Pivot Counties were located in 34 states. Iowa, with 31, had the most such counties. The partisan makeup of the 108 congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties was more Republican than the partisan breakdown of the U.S. House. Of the 108 congressional districts that had at least one Pivot County, 63 percent were held by a Republican incumbent, while 55.4 percent of U.S. House seats were won by a Republican in the 2016 elections.[48]
Election history
2014
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | 61.6% | 2,861,531 | ||
Democratic | David Alameel | 34.4% | 1,597,387 | |
Libertarian | Rebecca Paddock | 2.9% | 133,751 | |
Green | Emily Marie Sanchez | 1.2% | 54,701 | |
Write-in | Mohammed Tahiro | 0% | 988 | |
Total Votes | 4,648,358 | |||
Source: U.S. House Clerk "2014 Election Statistics" |
2012
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | 56.5% | 4,440,137 | ||
Democratic | Paul Sadler | 40.6% | 3,194,927 | |
Libertarian | John Jay Myers | 2.1% | 162,354 | |
Green | David B. Collins | 0.9% | 67,404 | |
Total Votes | 7,864,822 | |||
Source: Texas Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" |
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
U.S. Senate wave elections | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[49] | |
1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped) | |
1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D | |
1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped) | |
1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -9 | R (flipped) | |
2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped) | |
1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -8 | D | |
2008 | George W. Bush | D | Presidential | -8 | D | |
1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[50] | -7 | R | |
1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R | |
1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -7 | D (flipped) |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Texas heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Texas.
- Republicans held 25 of 36 U.S. House seats in Texas, and Democrats held 11.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Republicans held six of 11 state executive positions and five positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of Texas was Republican Greg Abbott.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Texas State Legislature. They had a 93-55 majority in the state House and a 21-10 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Texas was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state House.
2018 elections
- See also: Texas elections, 2018
Texas held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- The Class 1 U.S. Senate seat held by Ted Cruz (R)
- All 36 U.S. House seats
- Governor
- Five lower state executive positions
- 15 of 31 state Senate seats
- All 150 state House seats
- Local judicial offices
- Local school boards
- Municipal elections in Arlington, Austin, Bexar County, Collin County, Corpus Christi, Dallas County, Denton County, El Paso County, Fort Bend County, Garland, Harris County, Irving, Laredo, Lubbock, Lubbock County, Nueces County, Tarrant County, Travis County, Webb County, and Williamson County
Demographics
Demographic data for Texas | ||
---|---|---|
Texas | U.S. | |
Total population: | 27,429,639 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 261,232 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 74.9% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 11.9% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 4.2% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 0.5% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2.5% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 38.4% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 81.9% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 27.6% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $53,207 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 19.9% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Texas. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2016, Texas had a population of approximately 27,862,596 people, and its three largest cities were Houston (pop. est. 2.3 million), San Antonio (pop. est. 1.5 million), and Dallas (pop. est. 1.3 million).[51][52]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Texas from 2000 to 2016.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Texas every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Texas 2000-2016[53][54] | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | 52.23% | 43.24% | 8.99% | ||
2012 | 57.17% | 41.38% | 15.79% | ||
2008 | 55.45% | 43.68% | 11.77% | ||
2004 | 61.09% | 38.22% | 22.87% | ||
2000 | 59.30% | 37.98% | 21.32% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Texas from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Texas 2000-2016[55] | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014[56] | 61.56% | 34.36% | 27.20% | ||
2012[57] | 56.46% | 40.62% | 15.84% | ||
2008[58] | 54.82% | 42.84% | 11.98% | ||
2006[59] | 61.69% | 36.04% | 25.65% | ||
2002[60] | 55.30% | 43.33% | 11.97% | ||
2000[61] | 65.04% | 32.35% | 32.69% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2014
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2014. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Texas.
Election results (Governor), Texas 2000-2016[62] | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | 59.27% | 38.90% | 20.37% | ||
2010 | 54.97% | 42.30% | 12.67% | ||
2006 | 39.03% | 29.79% | 9.24% | ||
2002 | 57.81% | 39.96% | 17.85% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Texas in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Texas Party Control: 1992-2025
Three years of Democratic trifectas • Twenty-three years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Texas, 2018
- United States Senate elections, 2018
- Ted Cruz
- United States Senate election in Texas (March 6, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in Texas (March 6, 2018 Republican primary)
Footnotes
- ↑ https://www.newsweek.com/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-texas-midterms-trump-1053173 Newsweek, "TEXAS ‘BLUE WAVE’ COULD TAKE DOWN TED CRUZ AND DEAL BIG BLOW TO DONALD TRUMP, POLLS INDICATE," August 1, 2018]
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Beto for Senate, "About Beto," accessed September 10, 2018
- ↑ National Journal, "Texas, 16th House District: Beto O'Rourke (D)," November 7, 2012
- ↑ The New York Times, "Beto O’Rourke Dreams of One Texas. Ted Cruz Sees Another Clearly," August 31, 2018
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 YouTube, "Beto O'Rourke's Fight To Take Down Ted Cruz," March 6, 2018
- ↑ Texas Monthly, "Does Beto O’Rourke Stand a Chance Against Ted Cruz?" accessed September 10, 2018
- ↑ El Paso Times, "El Paso VA Health Care System breaks ground for new mental health clinic," August 15, 2018
- ↑ Biographical Directory of the U.S. Congress, "Rafael Edward (Ted) Cruz," accessed May 16, 2018
- ↑ KVIA, "AP Analysis: Ted Cruz runs for re-election as though it's still 2016," April 16, 2018
- ↑ Ted Cruz for Senate, "Texas Values," accessed September 10, 2018
- ↑ Ted Cruz for Senate, "Proven Leader," accessed September 10, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Patrick Svitek," August 3, 2018
- ↑ Neal Dikeman, "Neal's Bio," accessed November 1, 2018
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 Neal Dikeman, "About Neal," accessed November 1, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
- ↑ Washington Examiner, "Club for Growth earmarks 'seven figures' to defend Ted Cruz from Beto O'Rourke," August 29, 2018
- ↑ 19.0 19.1 Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/1," October 1, 2018
- ↑ FEC, "FILING FEC-1266108," accessed October 11, 2018
- ↑ Texas Tribune, "Cruz allies ramp up for November TV battle with O'Rourke," August 9, 2018
- ↑ FEC, "FILING FEC-1260298," accessed September 10, 2018
- ↑ 23.0 23.1 Dallas News, "Ted Cruz says super PAC spending $1.2 million on anti-Cruz ads is 'saying things they know are lies,'" October 26, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ 28.0 28.1 Houston Chronicle, "Ted Cruz seizes on Beto O’Rourke’s willingness to consider abolishing ICE," July 6, 2018
- ↑ New York Times, "Kavanaugh Is Sworn In After Close Confirmation Vote in Senate Video," October 6, 2018
- ↑ Ted Cruz, "Sen. Cruz: The Right Decision Is to Confirm Judge Kavanaugh as Justice Kavanaugh," October 5, 2018
- ↑ MSNBC, "GOP tries to energize base. TRANSCRIPT: 10/9/2018, All In w Chris Hayes," October 9, 2018
- ↑ Texas Tribune, "Beto O’Rourke swings harder at Ted Cruz in second debate," October 16, 2018
- ↑ Texas Tribune, "Watch Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke in first Senate debate," September 22, 2018
- ↑ 34.0 34.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Beto for Texas, "Issues," accessed September 10, 2018
- ↑ Ted Cruz for Senate, "Proven Leader," accessed September 10, 2018
- ↑ Dallas Morning News, "Trump sets 'major rally' with Ted Cruz for Houston on Oct. 22 at arena that seats 8,000," October 16, 2018
- ↑ CNN, "Beto O'Rourke smashes record, raises $38.1 million in three months," October 12, 2018
- ↑ Quinnipiac University, "Cruz Has 9-Point Likely Voter Lead In Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Trump Gets A Split 49 - 49 Percent Job Approval Score," September 18, 2018
- ↑ FEC, "FILING FEC-1261136," accessed September 21, 2018
- ↑ Texas Tribune, "Cruz allies take aim at O'Rourke over eminent domain, father-in-law," September 4, 2018
- ↑ CBS News, "Trump to campaign for former rival Ted Cruz, with Texas Senate race too close for comfort for GOP," August 31, 2018
- ↑ NBC News, "Poll: Democrat O'Rourke trails Ted Cruz by just 4 percentage points in Texas," August 22, 2018
- ↑ Texas Tribune, "Beto O’Rourke says he'll start airing TV ads with money raised off Ted Cruz’s attack ads," August 13, 2018
- ↑ Texas Tribune, "Ted Cruz releases first TV ads of 2018, including 3 attacking Beto O'Rourke," August 3, 2018
- ↑ Houston Chronicle, "Ted Cruz attacks Beto O'Rourke over talk of Trump impeachment," July 17, 2018
- ↑ Vox, "Beto O’Rourke is blowing Ted Cruz out of the water in fundraising," July 12, 2018
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑ Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Texas," accessed December 12, 2017
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts Houston; San Antonio; Dallas," accessed December 13, 2017
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2012 Election Results for the U.S. President, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," accessed December 13, 2017
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Official 2016 Presidential General Election Results," January 30, 2017
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Federal Elections 2014: Election Results for the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives," accessed December 13, 2017
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2014 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2012 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2008 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2006 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2002 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2000 Official Election Results for United States Senate," accessed December 13, 2017
- ↑ Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Texas Election Results," accessed December 13, 2017