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United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 10 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 6:00 am to 6:00 pm local time
2022 →
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U.S. Senate, Indiana |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: February 9, 2018 |
Primary: May 8, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Joe Donnelly (Democrat) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. Voting in Indiana |
Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Toss-up Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th Indiana elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Former state Rep. Mike Braun (R) defeated U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) and business consultant Lucy Brenton (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent Indiana in the United States Senate.
Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the United States Senate were up for election in 2018, including two seats up for special election. Republicans gained four previously Democratic-held seats and Democrats gained two previously Republican-held seats, resulting in a net gain of two seats for the Republican Party and a 53-seat majority in the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the chamber in the 116th Congress. At the time of the election, Republicans held a 51-seat Senate majority. Democrats held 47 seats, and the two independents caucused with them. Democrats faced greater partisan risk in 2018, as they were defending 26 seats while Republicans were only defending nine. Democrats had to defend seats in 10 states Donald Trump (R) won. The GOP defended one Senate seat in a state Hillary Clinton (D) won.
Trump won Indiana by 19 points in the 2016 presidential election. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Indiana was Barack Obama in 2008. Donnelly was first elected in 2012, defeating State Auditor Richard Mourdock (R) by 5.7 percentage points. Prior to his win, Republicans had won every U.S. Senate election in the state since 2004. In the 2016 Senate race, U.S. Rep. Todd Young (R) defeated former U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh (D) by 9.7 percentage points for the seat held by retiring incumbent Dan Coats (R).
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. Senate Indiana
Mike Braun defeated incumbent Joe Donnelly and Lucy Brenton in the general election for U.S. Senate Indiana on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Mike Braun (R) | 50.7 | 1,158,000 | |
Joe Donnelly (D) | 44.8 | 1,023,553 | ||
Lucy Brenton (L) | 4.4 | 100,942 | ||
Other/Write-in votes | 0.0 | 70 |
Total votes: 2,282,565 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- John Piper (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Indiana
Incumbent Joe Donnelly advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Indiana on May 8, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Joe Donnelly | 100.0 | 284,621 |
Total votes: 284,621 | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Martin Del Rio (D)
- Bill Bowser (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. Senate Indiana
Mike Braun defeated Todd Rokita and Luke Messer in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Indiana on May 8, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Mike Braun | 41.2 | 208,602 | |
Todd Rokita | 30.0 | 151,967 | ||
Luke Messer | 28.8 | 146,131 |
Total votes: 506,700 | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Andy Horning (R)
- Kiel Stone (R)
- Mark Hurt (R)
- Andrew Takami (R)
- Terry Henderson (R)
Candidate profiles
Party: Democratic
Incumbent: Yes
Political office: U.S. Senate (assumed office: 2013), U.S. House of Representatives (2007-2012)
Biography: Donnelly graduated from the University of Notre Dame with a B.A. in government in 1977 and the University of Notre Dame Law School in 1981. He ran the business Marketing Solutions, worked as an attorney, and served as president of the school board for Mishawaka Marian High School.[1]
- Donnelly said he was independent from the Democratic Party and put Indiana before his party by supporting President Trump's border wall and opposing sanctuary cities.[2][3]
- Donnelly spoke of "Hoosier commonsense" that he said he displayed while serving in Washington, D.C.[2]
- Donnelly emphasized his support for coverage of pre-existing conditions in the Affordable Care Act and his opposition to Republican repeal-and-replace plans in 2017. He also highlighted his opposition to the 2017 tax bill and his attention to veterans issues.[2]
Party: Republican
Incumbent: No
Political office: Indiana House of Representatives (2014-2016)
Biography: Braun earned his bachelor's degree in economics from Wabash College and his M.B.A. from Harvard Business School. He began working at Meyer Body Company in 1981, eventually becoming the owner and transferring the business from auto parts manufacturing to distribution.[4]
- Braun emphasized that he was a business owner and said he wanted to help President Trump fight career politicians in Washington, D.C.[5]
- Braun said he was a successful businessman and that his employees benefitted from higher wages and lower health insurance premiums under his management. He said Donnelly outsourced jobs to Mexico at the expense of American-based workers.[6]
- Braun said he was a family man and devoted Christian with deep ties to the state of Indiana.[6]
Party: Libertarian
Incumbent: No
Political office: None
Biography: Brenton received her bachelor's degrees in economics and French from Indiana University - Purdue University Indianapolis. She worked as a business consultant and served as president of the Central Indiana Real Estate Investors Association. Brenton ran for Senate in 2016 as the Libertarian nominee. She received 5.5 percent of the vote, losing to Republican Todd Young.[7]
- Brenton highlighted her support for the Libertarian Party's platform and said she would apply the libertarian approach to issues like "Immigration, Foreign Policy, 4th Amendment Encroachments, Gun Rights, Taxation."[8]
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
U.S. Senate election in Indiana, Donnelly vs. Braun | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) October 27-30, 2018 | Fox News | 45% | 38% | 17% | +/-3.5 | 722 | |||||||||||||
Marist University October 24-28, 2018 | NBC News | 45% | 42% | 13% | +/-5.5 | 496 | |||||||||||||
Cygnal October 26-27, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 49% | 5% | +/-4.36 | 505 | |||||||||||||
YouGov October 23-26, 2018 | CBS News | 43% | 46% | 11% | +/-3.7 | 975 | |||||||||||||
Mason Strategies October 15-20, 2018 | IndyPolitics.org | 43% | 47% | 10% | +/-3.9 | 600 | |||||||||||||
American Viewpoint October 14-17, 2018 | Braun campaign | 40% | 44% | 16% | +/-3.0 | 800 | |||||||||||||
SurveyUSA October 12-16, 2018 | Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics | 41% | 40% | 19% | +/-4.6 | 1,400 | |||||||||||||
Vox Populi (Republican vs. Democrat only, no undecided option) October 13-15, 2018 | N/A | 44% | 38% | 0% | +/-3.5 | 783 | |||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) September 29-October 2, 2018 | Fox News | 43% | 41% | 16% | +/-3.5 | 695 | |||||||||||||
Ipsos/Reuters/UVA Center for Politics September 12-19, 2018 | N/A | 46% | 43% | 11% | +/-3.3 | 1,181 | |||||||||||||
Anderson Robbins Research (D)/Shaw & Company Research (R) September 8-11, 2018 | Fox News | 43% | 45% | 12% | +/-3.5 | 677 | |||||||||||||
Marist University August 26-29, 2018 | NBC News | 44% | 41% | 15% | +/-5.0 | 576 | |||||||||||||
Trafalgar Group July 31-August 7, 2018 | N/A | 51% | 39% | 11% | +/-2.6 | 1,420 | |||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 44.15% | 42.54% | 12% | +/-3.84 | 833.08 | ||||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
PredictIt Prices
This section provides the PredictIt market prices for this race during the three months leading up to the election. PredictIt is a site where people make and trade predictions on political and financial events. Market prices reflect the probability, based on PredictIt users' predictions, that a candidate will win a race. For example, a market price of $0.60 for Candidate A is equivalent to a 60 percent probability that Candidate A will win.
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Donnelly | Democratic Party | $17,253,015 | $17,173,078 | $173,873 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Mike Braun | Republican Party | $19,663,419 | $19,591,836 | $71,583 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Lucy Brenton | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Satellite spending
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[9][10][11]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
- Americans for Prosperity (AFP)
- In March 2018, AFP spent an additional $2.1 million on an ad campaign against Donnelly.[14]
- AFP spent $4 million in February 2018 on ad buys against Sens. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) and Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) in response to their vote against the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017. "Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill promised tax reform for years but chose partisan politics over Indiana and Missouri families when they had a once-in-a-generation opportunity to provide tax relief," Americans for Prosperity President Tim Phillip said in a statement. Both candidates responded that they would have preferred to work with Republicans to craft different tax legislation.[15]
- The Credit Union National Association announced it would spend $525,000 on digital ads and direct mail supporting Donnelly on October 17.[16]
- The National Republican Senatorial Committee began running a negative ad against Donnelly featuring Vice President Mike Pence (R) the week of Sept. 16.[17]
- One Nation released an ad in July 2018 criticizing Donnelly for voting against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.[18]
- Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
- SLF launched a $1.6 million ad buy against Donnell featuring this ad October 2.[19]
- The SLF announced it would spend $1.4 million opposing Donnelly the week of Sept. 10-14.[20]
- SLF committed to spending $7.1 million on ads in this race to air for six weeks after Labor Day.[21]
- SLF launched an ad buy in February 2018 that alleges Donnelly outsourced jobs to Mexico: "Mexico Joe says one thing in public ... But behind the scenes his family is still profiting from outsourcing jobs to Mexico."[22]
- Senate Majority PAC (SMP)
- In September 2018, SMP and Priorities USA joined together for an $18 million digital ad campaign across Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. The Indiana ad criticized Mike Braun for using Chinese suppliers for his business.[23]
- In July 2018, SMP launched a $1 million ad campaign questioning how Braun could not know the auto parts distributed by his company were made in China and not the United States.[24]
- SMP announced $1.8 million television ad campaign and $600,000 digital ad campaign, in partnership with Priorities USA, to defend Donnelly and McCaskill on their tax policy. "Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly refuse to cut Medicare and balloon the national debt so that the Koch brothers can get another tax break,” Chris Hayden, the communications director of SMP, said in February 2018. “While their Republican opponents will do anything to impress out-of-state billionaires, Claire and Joe have a bipartisan record of putting middle class families first.”[25] In March 2018, following additional spending from AFP, SMP also invested another $500,000 into the race.[26]
- The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Mike Braun on September 25 and ran this ad in support of him.[27]
- Vote for Hoosier Values disclosed $623,000 in spending supporting Joe Donnelly on October 18.
Race ratings
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[28]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[29][30][31]
Race ratings: U.S. Senate election in Indiana, 2018 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. |
Noteworthy endorsements
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.
Noteworthy general election endorsements | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Endorsement | Donnelly (D) | Braun (R) | ||||
Elected officials | ||||||
President Donald Trump (R) | ✔ | |||||
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D)[32] | ✔ | |||||
Former President Barack Obama (D)[33] | ✔ | |||||
Organizations | ||||||
National Association of Realtors[34] | ✔ | |||||
National Federation of Independent Business[35] | ✔ | |||||
The Fraternal Order of Police of Indiana[36] | ✔ | |||||
U.S. Chamber of Commerce[27] | ✔ | |||||
National Border Patrol Council[37] | ✔ |
Click here to see a list of endorsements in the May 8 Republican primary | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Declined to endorse
The following groups declined to endorse or directly support either candidate:
- Indiana Chamber of Commerce[47]
- Americans for Prosperity[47]
Timeline
- November 5, 2018: President Donald Trump (R) held a rally in Fort Wayne in support of Braun.[48]
- November 4, 2018: Former President Barack Obama (D) appeared at a campaign rally for Donnelly in Gary.[33]
- October 31, 2018: An NBC/Marist poll found Donnelly with 45 percent and Braun with 42 percent. The margin of error was 5.5 percentage points.
- October 30, 2018: The candidates met in a debate hosted by the Indiana Debate Commission. Read more below.
- October 30, 2018: A Cygnal poll showed Braun with 49 percent and Donnelly with 46 percent. The margin of error was 4.36 percentage points.
- October 28, 2018: A CBS News/YouGov poll showed Braun with 46 percent and Donnelly with 43 percent. The margin of error was 3.7 percentage points.
- October 25, 2018: Mike Braun loaned his campaign $1 million.[49]
- October 23, 2018: A Mason Strategies poll commissioned by IndyPolitics.org found Braun with 47 percent and Donnelly with 43 percent. The margin of error was 3.9 percentage points.
- October 22, 2018: A SurveyUSA poll commissioned by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics found Donnelly with 41 percent and Braun with 40 percent. The margin of error was 4.6 percentage points.
- October 18, 2018: Vote for Hoosier Values disclosed $623,000 in spending supporting Joe Donnelly.
- October 17, 2018: The Credit Union National Association announced it would spend $525,000 supporting Joe Donnelly.
- October 16, 2018: America First Action announced it would spend another $1 million supporting Braun, bringing its total spending in the race to $3 million.[12]
- October 15, 2018: Mike Braun reported raising $5.6 million in the third quarter of 2018, including $2.4 million in personal loans. Joe Donnelly reported raising $3.1 million.[50]
- October 12, 2018: Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) held a early vote rally for Donnelly in northwest Indiana.[32]
- October 8, 2018: The candidates met in a debate. See full coverage below.
- October 3, 2018: A Fox News poll found Joe Donnelly leading Mike Braun 43-41. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.
- October 2, 2018: The Senate Leadership Fund launched a $1.6 million ad buy opposing Joe Donnelly.
- September 28, 2018: Joe Donnelly announced he would vote against Judge Brett Kavanaugh to serve as a U.S. Supreme Court justice.[51]
- September 26, 2018
- America First Action announced that it planned to spend $2 million on Braun.[13]
- An Ipsos/Reuters/University of Virginia Center for Politics poll of 1,181 likely voters found Donnelly ahead of Braun by 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error was 3.3 percent.[52]
- September 24, 2018: The National Association of Realtors PAC endorsed Donnelly.[53]
- September 13, 2018: A survey commissioned by Fox News found Braun leading Donnelly 45-43. The margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.
- September 11, 2018: The Senate Leadership Fund announced it would spend $1.4 million opposing Donnelly the week of Sept. 10-14.
- September 5, 2018: An NBC/Marist poll found Joe Donnelly leading Mike Braun 49 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. The margin of error was 5 percentage points.
- August 30, 2018: President Donald Trump held a rally in Evansville, Indiana, where he discussed immigration and trade policy and supported Braun's candidacy.[54]
- July 19, 2018: Donnelly released an ad featuring Trump complimenting him on the passage of "right to try" legislation, which gives terminally ill patients the right to use experimental medications.
- July 18, 2018: Braun released an ad featuring his employees praising him and his company.
- June 18, 2018: Donnelly released an ad claiming that Braun's business purchased supplies from overseas and cost the state jobs.
- June 7, 2018: Braun released his first campaign ad of the general election season to showcase his business experience.
- May 29, 2018: Senate Majority PAC and Priorities USA Action spent $1 million on another ad campaign highlighting the firing of a trucker for Braun's company after he had emergency surgery.[55]
- May 16, 2018: Senate Majority PAC spent $500,000 on an ad buy criticizing elements of Braun's business record, including lawsuits from workers, unsafe working conditions, and importing goods from foreign countries.[56]
- May 8, 2018: Braun and Donnelly advanced from the Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively.
- April 17, 2018: Donnelly released his first campaign ad of the cycle, highlighting his Lugar Center rating as the second most bipartisan senator.
- March 15, 2018: Senate Majority PAC spent an additional $500,000 on an ad buy defending Donnelly on tax policy, featuring a Hoosier discussing his concerns with the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017.[57]
- March 14, 2018: Americans for Prosperity spent an additional $2.1 million on an ad campaign against Donnelly for his vote against the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017.[14]
Policy stances
Tariffs
In response to a series of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in 2018, the candidates took the following positions:[58]
- Donnelly said he supported targeted tariffs on China to punish unfair practices related to steel dumping but opposed the Trump administration's wider tariffs, which he said would hurt farmers and manufacturers dependent on international trade.
- Braun said he opposed tariffs in principle due to his business experience but supported Trump's tariffs on China, which he said could lead to a better deal with the country and prevent unfair practices. He said American farmers could be harmed by Trump's tariffs on China and that he wanted the U.S. to band together with other trading partners, including Mexico and the European Union, to offset temporary losses from China.
Wall along U.S.-Mexico border
- In August 2018, Donnelly said that he would support providing the Trump administration with more funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to avoid a government shutdown. He said, "I’m fine with providing him some more. I actually voted for border wall funding three different times. ... I’m fine with that. I’m fine with $3 [billion], $3.5, $4 or $5."[59]
- Braun stated on his campaign website, "The single most important obligation our government has is to protect its citizens. But for decades, the Congress has failed to meet this duty by refusing to address the southern border, allowing illegal immigrants and illicit drugs to pour into our communities. The time for inaction is over. President Trump was right. We must act immediately to secure the border by building a wall."[60]
Health insurance and pre-existing conditions
- Braun said in August 2018 that health insurance plans should cover pre-existing conditions. "Definitely; yes. Nobody should go broke because they get sick or have a bad accident," he said.[61]
- Donnelly opposed the Department of Justice arguing that insurers should not have to cover Americans with pre-existing conditions under the Affordable Care Act. "We should not return to the days when insurers could deny Americans health care coverage due to a pre-existing condition like cancer, arthritis, diabetes, multiple sclerosis, or others," he said in July 2018.[62]
Campaign advertisements
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
Joe Donnelly
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.@JoeforIndiana really has had quite a streak with recent ads ... One released today has has a brawl in a diner going on, with someone getting hit with a chair and Donnelly himself (!!!) ducking a thrown flower pot #INSen pic.twitter.com/kBemTmnRMX
— Zach Montellaro (@ZachMontellaro) October 26, 2018
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Mike Braun
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Campaign tactics and strategies
Indiana Democratic Party mailers supporting Lucy Brenton
On October 30, The Indianapolis Star reported that the Democratic Party of Indiana sent mailers supporting Libertarian candidate Lucy Brenton over Mike Braun (R). The mailers said, "Looking for a candidate who will really lower your taxes?" and said that Brenton "is an anti-tax conservative" while Braun "raised Indiana taxes 159 times."
In response, Brenton said, "I am grateful for the free publicity highlighting my tax stance, but think it will backfire. Many Democrats are Constitution loving, fiscally conservative voters and my message resonates with them, too. Ultimately, how well they targeted the addresses will determine which voters learn that they have a choice in this race that demands all of their freedoms, all of the time."
A spokesperson for the Republican Party of Indiana said, "As we enter the final week before Election Day, it's clear that Democrats are desperate to win, and they'll do and say absolutely anything to beat Mike Braun -- including trying to trick Hoosiers."[63]
Noteworthy events
Brett Kavanaugh confirmation vote
- See also: Supreme Court vacancy, 2018: An overview
On October 6, 2018, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court. Fifty Senators voted to confirm Kavanaugh's nomination, 48 voted against, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voted present. A simple majority was required to confirm Kavanaugh.[64]
Donnelly voted against Kavanaugh. When announcing his opposition on September 28, Donnelly said, “I have deep reservations about Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination to this lifetime position and, as I stated, we have been unable to get all the information necessary regarding this nomination, despite my best efforts. Only 113 people have ever served on the Supreme Court, and I believe that we must do our level best to protect its sanctity.”[65]
In response to Donnelly's opposition, Braun said, “Donnelly’s decision to oppose President Trump’s highly qualified nominee is a grave mistake, but proves he is more concerned with standing with his liberal Democrat leaders than standing for Hoosiers. I continue to strongly support Judge Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court.”[66]
Associated Press reports on Braun's and Donnelly's businesses
Donnelly
The Associated Press reported in July 2017 that Donnelly's family's arts and crafts company, Stewart Superior Corp., manufactured ink pads and other supplies in Mexico. Following the report, Donnelly sold his stock in Stewart.[67]
Braun
The Associated Press reported in May and August 2018 that Braun's national auto parts distribution company, Meyer Distributing, relied on foreign-made parts from China. Braun said that he did business with American manufacturers and was unaware of where their products came from.[68]
Braun's own brand of automotive parts, Promaxx Automotive, also relied on products manufactured in China.[69]
Debates and forums
Oct. 30 Indiana Debate Commission debate
On October 30, Donnelly, Braun, and Brenton faced off in a debate hosted by the Indiana Debate Commission.[70] Among the topics they discussed were birthright citizenship and the coverage of pre-existing conditions.
See roundups of the debate here:
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Oct. 8 Indiana Debate Commission debate
On October 8, Donnelly, Braun, and Benton met in a debate hosted by the Indiana Debate Commission. Among the topics they discussed were support for President Trump, the Affordable Care Act, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, abortion, and foreign policy.
See roundups of the debate here:
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Sept. 9 AACI forum
On September 9, the African American Coalition of Indianapolis (AACI) hosted a public forum with Donnelly and Braun. Listen to it here:
Campaign themes
Joe Donnelly
Donnelly’s campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Education Veterans and Servicemembers Jobs & The Economy Trade FACT CHECK: Joe Donnelly aligns with President Trump on unfair trade and the renegotiation of NAFTA Health Care The Opioid Epidemic Seniors |
” |
—Joe Donnelly’s campaign website (2018)[72] |
Mike Braun
Braun’s campaign website stated the following:
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PROTECTING THE 2ND AMENDMENT CREATING JOBS FOR ALL HOOSIERS We need a tax code that is simple and fair. We must repeal Obamacare, not repair it, to rein in costs and expand healthcare options. And we must ensure that American jobs are filled by American workers, not outsourced to other countries or given to illegal immigrants. DRAIN THE SWAMP To make Washington work again, the swamp must be drained. Career politicians from both parties need to be replaced with citizen legislators with real world experience who will always put the interest of Hoosier families and businesses first. And we must pass term limits for politicians now. REFORM HEALTHCARE Rather than a top-down, government-run healthcare system, Mike Braun believes in common sense alternatives that will reduce costs and increase access to care. These include allowing individuals to purchase insurance across state lines and allowing small businesses to pool together to purchase insurance at lower prices. REDUCE GOVERNMENT SPENDING It’s time to force Washington politicians to get their fiscal house in order by reining in spending and balancing the budget just as every Hoosier family and business does. To ensure Congress gets this done, there should be no pay for politicians if Washington does not pass a budget. PROTECT OUR BORDERS The time for inaction is over. President Trump was right. We must act immediately to secure the border by building a wall, crack down on criminal illegal immigrants and the Sanctuary Cities that protect them, end chain migration, and demand that every business verifies the immigration status of its workers to protect American workers. STRENGTHEN OUR MILITARY THE RIGHT TO LIFE |
” |
—Mike Braun’s campaign website (2018)[73] |
Lucy Brenton
Brenton’s campaign website stated the following:
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ABORTION: It is not the place of the Federal government to pay for abortions nor legislate this issue. The Constitution has no mention of abortion and doesn’t authorize the federal government to be involved in abortion. Therefore, as a Libertarian, I would vote no on any legislation at the federal level because it is not within the purview of the Constitution. AGRICULTURE/HEMP: It is not the federal government’s job to pick winners and losers through farm subsidies. The free market must decide what crops and products are in demand and profitable. While the federal government can help make sure that interstate trade is uniform and fair, under the Constitution there is no power for the government to set prices or give subsidies. Those subsidies are just another example of corporate welfare and payment for political favors. Let the people keep the money in their pockets, let the market decide what is grown and stop the unconstitutional transfer of tax dollars to corporations. ECONOMY – GROWTH – JOB CREATION: Government does not create jobs. It never has and never will. When government interferes, Entrepreneurs & companies are burdened and jobs are not created. First, we must commit to keeping the government at the absolute minimum size. Too many government agencies are parasites on taxpayers, staffing alphabet soup agencies that are not operating within nor authorized by the Constitution. A streamlined government keeping power here it belongs: in the hands of the people that it serves. Corporate taxes must end. Why? Corporations do NOT pay taxes. They write the check – but only because they first get the money from their customers. It is the customers who pay the taxes. Corporate taxation is only a scheme to mask the transfer of funds to the government. I will work to reduce and eliminate the obstacles that prevent small businesses from creating jobs in this country so that more jobs are available to the people who want them. Economic growth will happen as a natural consequence of a constitutional money system and a laissez-faire policy to free markets. Freedom produces more wealth. The federal government must be limited to its Constitutional powers in all things. ENVIRONMENT: Simply, this is trespass. The citizens have the right to live in a clean environment, free from anyone – corporations or individuals – that harm another. Regardless of whether you are punched in the face, someone dumps trash onto your property or releases toxic chemicals into your air or water, you have been the victim of trespass. It is time, these perpetrators were held responsible for the trespass that is committed against people and property. When it is no longer more profitable to dump waste into the environment and force taxpayers and individuals to clean up the mess, we will see a change in the behavior of the perpetrators. When heads of companies use their corporation to commit trespasses that harm so severely they rise to a level of criminality, those trespassers must be held individually accountable. It is a rare event now when a corporation harms flora, fauna, water and humans and the individuals acting in their capacity as directors of those corporate actions are jailed or fined. When individuals trespass against another, they should be held accountable. If I release toxic chemicals from my property that kill trees or animals that belong to my neighbor, I should be held accountable for trespass and a strict policy of restitution should be enforced. Whether corporate or individual, we must all be held to the same standards. The one valid purpose of government is to protect its citizens from force and fraud. Environmental crimes are both a force and a fraud against taxpayers. I will work to end incentives to harm the environment and protect individual liberty and rights. FOREIGN POLICY: Each sovereign country on this planet has the same rights that we do, given by God. Namely, to be free from the interference in their affairs from others. Our current foreign policy has created problems around the globe because of our manipulation and back door deals to install in power those that are convenient to our government. My foreign policy is simple: to make friends, not enemies. To stay out of the internal affairs of sovereign nations. To trade freely for the benefit of each. To treat other countries and peoples as we wish to be treated. To not initiate force against them and not take their stuff. In summary, to be a good neighbor. Should a country, in spite of the above, instead aggress against us, of course we defend ourselves. I would not engage in any unlawful wars. Only Congress can declare war. The endless unconstitutional wars in which we engage must be stopped immediately. The American Taxpayer should not be burdened any further in wars which only make defense contractors rich and turn the world against the US and its war machine. GAY RIGHTS: Quite frankly, my sex life and choices are not your business when they don’t affect you. I am not interested in who you are sleeping with and it is not my business nor is it the government’s business. Consenting adults should be left alone to pursue their own happiness and agenda as long as their practices do not interfere with the life, liberty or pursuit of happiness of another. Obviously, non-consenting adults and minors are an entirely different issue. Government exists to protect its citizens from force and fraud. In the case of force or fraud against a person – whether sexual in nature or not – government must endeavor to protect the rights of the victim, prevent the perpetrator from harming another and seek for restitution for the victim. I would never force association nor advocate for forced association by the government on behalf of one group or another. If a private business doesn’t wish to do business with an individual – for example, refuse to provide a good or service that is anathema to the personal beliefs of the business owner – it is not within the purview of the government to force such association and require any business owner to perform a service or offer a product when there exists choice in the marketplace. Clearly, where there are government created or supported monopolies, there is a lack of choice at this time. As an example, utilities. With rare exception, individuals have only one choice for a water provider, sewer provider, natural gas or electricity provider. These types of monopolies should not be allowed to choose with whom they do business as they are enjoying an artificial market sustained by government. In the case of a private business where there exists competition – for example a bakery – the free market should and will regulate this issue. A gay couple wanting a wedding cake that approaches a bakery owned by individuals who disagree with the marriage of homosexuals should not be forced by government to bake a cake. The free market will deny the bakery the profit from that transaction and the couple is free to seek an alternative provider of that service. Of course, it is also likely that publicity in the free market of the denial of services might cause some to avoid this bakery and others to support it with their use of its services. Those who seek to provide maximum freedom will likely win the most in terms of higher profits and customer satisfaction. All of this can and should occur with no interference from government. GUN RIGHTS: It is the right of “the people” (that’s you and I) to keep and bear Arms, not the right of the government. That right “shall not be infringed.” Every willing citizen should keep Arms, be proficient in their use – and be ready to use them to defend themselves, their families, their property and this Nation. ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION: Those who come to work hard and contribute should be welcomed. They want to build a better life for themselves, let them. They want to build a better country and stronger country – let them work alongside us in our communities. Let us cooperate for mutual benefit. Let them come legally so that they may honorably become Americans. Streamline the immigration process, screen carefully to keep out criminals. We were all immigrants once. “Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” Those who come to mooch off our welfare system should be stopped. Chances are they came here illegally and as criminals should be deported. If you are not here to work hard, to contribute and build community – then you are not welcome to steal from our public coffers. Let good people in – make it easy to do so. Make it easier to get bad people out and remove the incentives that cause those unwilling to work to overrun our borders and burden our taxpayers. JOB CREATION: What can be done about this? First, we must commit to keeping the government at the absolute minimum size. Too many government agencies are mere parasites on taxpayers, staffing alphabet soup agencies that are not operating within nor authorized by the Constitution. A streamlined government steals the least from taxpayers keeping the spending power where it belongs: in the hands of the labor that created it. Corporate taxes must end. Why? Corporations do NOT pay taxes. They write the check – but only because they first get the money from their customers. It is the customers who pay the taxes. Corporate taxation is only a scheme to mask the transfer of funds to government. I will work to reduce and eliminate the obstacles that prevent small businesses from creating jobs in this country so that more jobs are available to the people who want them. MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION: Marijuana is exceptionally safe. Marijuana has the power to replace a multitude of dangerous pharmaceutical drugs that are expensive to us and profitable to pharmaceutical companies. This is the real reason you have been denied Marijuana. Hemp is extremely useful. From rope, paper, cloth, concrete, plastic and dozens of other useful material uses…hemp has the power to fix carbon and change our world. What else would it change? Corporate profits. Look at the products just listed and understand that industries that compete with the above are the reason you don’t have widespread use of hemp. You are being denied the better building materials, paper, clothing, biodegradable plastics, and products because there are profits to protect. This is the real reason you have been denied Hemp. Responsible adults should be free to decide what products they use and consume – as long as they don’t hurt anyone else. The essence of freedom is self-ownership. Decriminalize marijuana and release all non-violent offenders jailed for the non-crime of deciding what to put in their own bodies. Release hemp to industry so that farmers and manufacturers can give us innovative products from this amazing plant. MEDICAL RIGHTS: Some might choose to visit doctors specializing in traditional healing methods such as herbs. Others might choose Allopathic Doctors who use a more pharmaceutical-based approach. All options should be available to patients – and no type of medicine should be allowed to create a monopoly – the natural result of which is to increase profits and limit patient choice. The Affordable Care Act limits choice. It forces patients to buy a product – an insurance product – which they may not need nor want. This must end. Private insurers can decide whether or not to offer insurance contracts to consumers – and consumers can choose whether or not they want insurance and if so, what coverage is appropriate for them. Maybe none at all. In a free market, solutions will be created by the marketplace as consumers clamor for products that meet their needs. In a market free from government interference, innovation will flourish. Most importantly, the power of a consumer-driven marketplace can break the stranglehold of monopoly that we currently see in medicine. It is abhorrent that an individual be forced to buy a product that he doesn’t want, that doesn’t offer him the protection he needs – and provides services he would never use. I suggest one solution among many – the formation of private health care co-operatives. People with similar lifestyles and similar risks can share the cost of healthcare – on a voluntary basis. I personally object to the ACA and any forced insurance scheme that lumps all groups together. I make healthier food choices than most. I don’t smoke or drink – yet under the ACA I am forced to subsidize the behavior and consequences of those who do. This is un-American and must be stopped. I will fight for your right to make your own decisions. Only you can decide if a treatment is appropriate for you. Only you should decide who you want advising you on your personal healthcare decisions. There must always be true, informed consent when your health is on the line. Just as the Nuremberg Code stands against forced medical experimentation – I stand against forcing you to be a victim of the failed experiment that is our current healthcare system. MINIMUM WAGE: The first problem with a minimum wage is the obvious intervention of government in the private lives of citizens. Every adult citizen has the right to contract with other adult citizens for mutual benefit. The contracts can be upheld by the courts as long as there is no force, fraud, criminal intent or other immoral or illegal action (we won’t argue illegal vs. immoral right now). If a low skilled worker offers their labor, negotiating a wage with an employer, who is government to decide what that worker should be paid? Interventionists would argue that the low skilled worker may be taken advantage of by a more sophisticated employer, but is that really what is going on? Big Brother might demand that employers pay $15 per hour. The low-skilled worker only produces $6 per hour of value. Employing this worker with their limited skill set is not sustainable for the employer. The employer would, therefore, decline to hire this worker. Sadly, this worker is motivated and knows that their skill set is limited. The worker lacks experience. The worker is eager to learn and willing to work hard in order to build skills and experience in anticipation of one day earning more. This teenage worker will be blocked by government do-goodism from working and gaining valuable skills and experience. All to “protect” this worker, of course, from evil companies. Further, an economic disparity will result as this worker languishes and falls into apathy. The workers hurt most by minimum wage laws include minorities and already suffering low income, entry-level hopefuls. These laws are grounded in racism and suppression of minorities. Walter E. Williams, the renowned African-American Economist wrote: “During South Africa’s apartheid era, the secretary of its avowedly racist Building Workers’ Union, Gert Beetge, said, “There is no job reservation left in the building industry, and in the circumstances, I support the rate for the job (minimum wage) as the second-best way of protecting our white artisans.” The South African Economic and Wage Commission of 1925 reported that “while definite exclusion of the Natives from the more remunerative fields of employment by law has not been urged upon us, the same result would follow a certain use of the powers of the Wage Board under the Wage Act of 1925, or of other wage-fixing legislation. The method would be to fix a minimum rate for an occupation or craft so high that no Native would be likely to be employed.” (source: lewrockwell.com) I am against the minimum wage and in favor of its abolishment. The unintended (or historically intended) consequences of interference in the right of the employee to negotiate and contract for their own benefit become more apparent in light of historical and institutional racism. Allow free people to negotiate for themselves so that the control of their lives rests where it should: in their own hands. SELF-OWNERSHIP: What right, if any, does another person have to control the body of another? I would submit that I have only the right to control my own body and never the right to control the body of another. Although I don’t smoke or drink you won’t find me demanding that you stop smoking or drinking. Similarly, I avoid all drugs – whether prescription or not – and prefer to find my health in fruits, vegetables, and herbs. I exercise sporadically and others exercise religiously. I admire them for their efforts and strive to emulate them. It is clearly a good idea to exercise but do those who exercise gain the right to tell me that I must follow them in their endeavors? Clearly not. When people get together in a group and organize, they are often referred to as the “government.” In a sometimes misguided and other times brazen attempt to control others for profit or power, “government” will decree that some things are good and others bad. While making these declarations, the demand for certain behaviors to be emulated or eliminated is typically tied to a reward or punishment. Government often uses the carrot and stick to elicit outcomes. Whether the motivation of Government is good or ill is irrelevant. History is replete with examples of the misery of unintended consequences. Take the so-called “Drug War.” According to news reports in 2012, over a trillion dollars had been spent up to that point on trying to prevent people from exercising their right to self-ownership. A group of people decided that other people should not be allowed to use drugs, should not be allowed to determine for themselves what substances they would put into their own bodies. Simultaneously, this same group called government creates mandates on other substances that must be put in the body. Lunacy. If we could instead recognize the natural right of self-ownership, each person could make a cost versus benefit decision for themselves. The individual lives in the physical body and will suffer or enjoy the consequences of their individual decisions. A faraway group of people cannot effectively or efficiently make decisions for others. The basis of freedom is the freedom of the individual to act in his own self-interest – as long as his actions harm no one. I own my physical body and I also own my mind. Mental self-ownership is clearly an important facet of freedom. The right to think one’s own thoughts, to hold an opinion or conclusion that is in opposition to the group – such is foundational to freedom. When the Constitution was created, amendments were added to necessarily reflect rights that by enumeration would be further accentuated. Grab hold of the foundation of your freedom. Self ownership. Guard it, harm no one. |
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—Lucy Brenton’s campaign website (2018)[74] |
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Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Five of 92 Indiana counties—5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
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County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Delaware County, Indiana | 13.43% | 3.12% | 14.98% | ||||
LaPorte County, Indiana | 6.33% | 12.57% | 22.04% | ||||
Perry County, Indiana | 18.55% | 11.59% | 22.84% | ||||
Porter County, Indiana | 6.59% | 3.90% | 7.20% | ||||
Vigo County, Indiana | 14.97% | 0.86% | 15.83% |
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Indiana with 56.9 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 37.8 percent. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) was Trump's running mate. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Indiana voted Republican 83.33 percent of the time and Democratic 16.67 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Indiana voted Republican four times and Democratic once when it voted for Barack Obama in 2008.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Indiana. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[75][76]
In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 28 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 25 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 32.9 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections. |
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 72 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 25.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 75 out of 100 state House districts in Indiana with an average margin of victory of 34.3 points. Trump won six districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
2016 Presidential Results by state House District ' | |||||||
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District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
1 | 74.02% | 24.38% | D+49.6 | 69.13% | 26.57% | D+42.6 | D |
2 | 91.24% | 8.20% | D+83 | 86.86% | 10.81% | D+76.1 | D |
3 | 85.10% | 14.01% | D+71.1 | 76.56% | 20.48% | D+56.1 | D |
4 | 46.94% | 51.38% | R+4.4 | 44.02% | 50.44% | R+6.4 | R |
5 | 43.96% | 54.42% | R+10.5 | 42.04% | 52.89% | R+10.8 | R |
6 | 65.56% | 32.91% | D+32.6 | 62.43% | 32.71% | D+29.7 | D |
7 | 49.21% | 49.37% | R+0.2 | 42.98% | 52.50% | R+9.5 | D |
8 | 50.73% | 47.97% | D+2.8 | 48.45% | 46.84% | D+1.6 | D |
9 | 60.14% | 37.95% | D+22.2 | 51.04% | 43.89% | D+7.1 | D |
10 | 58.94% | 39.04% | D+19.9 | 48.29% | 45.87% | D+2.4 | D |
11 | 41.85% | 56.39% | R+14.5 | 32.04% | 62.83% | R+30.8 | R |
12 | 53.19% | 45.32% | D+7.9 | 51.20% | 44.04% | D+7.2 | D |
13 | 34.43% | 63.03% | R+28.6 | 25.19% | 69.21% | R+44 | R |
14 | 83.05% | 16.18% | D+66.9 | 77.49% | 19.96% | D+57.5 | D |
15 | 46.17% | 52.52% | R+6.4 | 42.67% | 53.12% | R+10.5 | R |
16 | 38.06% | 59.58% | R+21.5 | 24.96% | 70.45% | R+45.5 | R |
17 | 33.98% | 64.01% | R+30 | 25.85% | 69.06% | R+43.2 | R |
18 | 26.77% | 71.19% | R+44.4 | 20.36% | 74.88% | R+54.5 | R |
19 | 47.78% | 50.75% | R+3 | 42.72% | 52.73% | R+10 | R |
20 | 47.61% | 50.07% | R+2.5 | 34.89% | 59.54% | R+24.7 | R |
21 | 39.78% | 58.56% | R+18.8 | 33.73% | 61.94% | R+28.2 | R |
22 | 23.30% | 74.84% | R+51.5 | 19.91% | 75.20% | R+55.3 | R |
23 | 36.08% | 61.21% | R+25.1 | 24.21% | 70.73% | R+46.5 | R |
24 | 31.59% | 66.93% | R+35.3 | 40.35% | 53.30% | R+13 | R |
25 | 36.30% | 61.32% | R+25 | 27.19% | 67.54% | R+40.3 | R |
26 | 49.86% | 47.78% | D+2.1 | 50.02% | 43.22% | D+6.8 | R |
27 | 51.92% | 45.41% | D+6.5 | 48.64% | 44.84% | D+3.8 | D |
28 | 27.16% | 71.07% | R+43.9 | 24.52% | 69.75% | R+45.2 | R |
29 | 30.84% | 67.12% | R+36.3 | 32.24% | 61.50% | R+29.3 | R |
30 | 44.78% | 52.78% | R+8 | 32.84% | 61.89% | R+29.1 | R |
31 | 40.25% | 57.59% | R+17.3 | 28.83% | 66.42% | R+37.6 | R |
32 | 31.06% | 66.81% | R+35.7 | 23.91% | 70.93% | R+47 | R |
33 | 39.69% | 58.25% | R+18.6 | 25.55% | 69.80% | R+44.2 | R |
34 | 61.63% | 35.68% | D+25.9 | 52.44% | 41.78% | D+10.7 | D |
35 | 41.75% | 56.04% | R+14.3 | 30.87% | 64.18% | R+33.3 | D |
36 | 52.89% | 44.86% | D+8 | 41.75% | 53.32% | R+11.6 | D |
37 | 35.26% | 63.23% | R+28 | 40.95% | 53.05% | R+12.1 | R |
38 | 33.79% | 64.07% | R+30.3 | 23.90% | 71.40% | R+47.5 | R |
39 | 32.92% | 65.53% | R+32.6 | 40.88% | 53.34% | R+12.5 | R |
40 | 36.23% | 62.08% | R+25.8 | 35.50% | 58.61% | R+23.1 | R |
41 | 29.51% | 67.92% | R+38.4 | 22.67% | 71.80% | R+49.1 | R |
42 | 39.22% | 58.41% | R+19.2 | 26.29% | 69.50% | R+43.2 | R |
43 | 55.30% | 42.73% | D+12.6 | 45.56% | 49.83% | R+4.3 | D |
44 | 31.50% | 66.22% | R+34.7 | 21.02% | 74.48% | R+53.5 | R |
45 | 36.84% | 61.06% | R+24.2 | 24.84% | 71.19% | R+46.4 | R |
46 | 38.55% | 59.25% | R+20.7 | 31.57% | 63.54% | R+32 | R |
47 | 29.10% | 68.87% | R+39.8 | 24.16% | 70.65% | R+46.5 | R |
48 | 38.56% | 59.90% | R+21.3 | 32.75% | 62.92% | R+30.2 | R |
49 | 33.11% | 65.49% | R+32.4 | 32.54% | 63.39% | R+30.9 | R |
50 | 33.14% | 65.13% | R+32 | 27.01% | 68.02% | R+41 | R |
51 | 34.00% | 63.93% | R+29.9 | 24.48% | 70.78% | R+46.3 | R |
52 | 31.00% | 67.27% | R+36.3 | 24.47% | 70.89% | R+46.4 | R |
53 | 30.23% | 67.35% | R+37.1 | 23.85% | 70.13% | R+46.3 | R |
54 | 38.63% | 58.47% | R+19.8 | 24.91% | 69.53% | R+44.6 | R |
55 | 33.15% | 64.51% | R+31.4 | 22.12% | 73.36% | R+51.2 | R |
56 | 42.11% | 55.91% | R+13.8 | 33.19% | 62.25% | R+29.1 | R |
57 | 30.69% | 67.09% | R+36.4 | 23.49% | 71.18% | R+47.7 | R |
58 | 31.41% | 66.58% | R+35.2 | 27.77% | 66.87% | R+39.1 | R |
59 | 37.11% | 60.82% | R+23.7 | 31.83% | 62.16% | R+30.3 | R |
60 | 39.41% | 58.45% | R+19 | 34.82% | 60.63% | R+25.8 | R |
61 | 69.90% | 27.39% | D+42.5 | 75.00% | 20.08% | D+54.9 | D |
62 | 40.31% | 57.59% | R+17.3 | 34.37% | 60.99% | R+26.6 | R |
63 | 30.08% | 67.97% | R+37.9 | 22.31% | 72.84% | R+50.5 | R |
64 | 32.42% | 65.53% | R+33.1 | 24.93% | 70.82% | R+45.9 | R |
65 | 34.17% | 63.45% | R+29.3 | 25.48% | 69.95% | R+44.5 | R |
66 | 43.12% | 54.94% | R+11.8 | 30.53% | 65.36% | R+34.8 | D |
67 | 33.59% | 63.85% | R+30.3 | 20.50% | 75.70% | R+55.2 | R |
68 | 28.25% | 69.83% | R+41.6 | 19.20% | 77.08% | R+57.9 | R |
69 | 36.52% | 60.78% | R+24.3 | 22.82% | 72.40% | R+49.6 | R |
70 | 36.18% | 61.71% | R+25.5 | 27.10% | 68.70% | R+41.6 | R |
71 | 50.92% | 47.20% | D+3.7 | 44.56% | 50.60% | R+6 | D |
72 | 42.89% | 55.41% | R+12.5 | 38.96% | 56.02% | R+17.1 | R |
73 | 36.02% | 61.42% | R+25.4 | 22.93% | 72.72% | R+49.8 | R |
74 | 44.73% | 53.00% | R+8.3 | 31.06% | 63.50% | R+32.4 | R |
75 | 37.34% | 60.55% | R+23.2 | 28.95% | 66.32% | R+37.4 | R |
76 | 39.60% | 58.59% | R+19 | 32.85% | 62.36% | R+29.5 | R |
77 | 57.50% | 40.60% | D+16.9 | 52.56% | 42.87% | D+9.7 | D |
78 | 37.34% | 61.05% | R+23.7 | 35.16% | 60.59% | R+25.4 | R |
79 | 28.95% | 69.22% | R+40.3 | 21.65% | 73.97% | R+52.3 | R |
80 | 78.11% | 20.64% | D+57.5 | 74.22% | 22.20% | D+52 | D |
81 | 44.14% | 53.80% | R+9.7 | 40.62% | 53.82% | R+13.2 | R |
82 | 30.25% | 67.78% | R+37.5 | 21.96% | 73.57% | R+51.6 | R |
83 | 31.27% | 67.18% | R+35.9 | 29.98% | 65.17% | R+35.2 | R |
84 | 34.51% | 63.98% | R+29.5 | 33.23% | 62.10% | R+28.9 | R |
85 | 31.58% | 66.88% | R+35.3 | 27.71% | 67.59% | R+39.9 | R |
86 | 57.98% | 40.35% | D+17.6 | 64.62% | 29.75% | D+34.9 | D |
87 | 49.95% | 48.31% | D+1.6 | 55.89% | 38.06% | D+17.8 | D |
88 | 34.66% | 63.88% | R+29.2 | 37.37% | 57.03% | R+19.7 | R |
89 | 47.75% | 50.14% | R+2.4 | 43.77% | 50.93% | R+7.2 | R |
90 | 34.68% | 63.24% | R+28.6 | 32.08% | 62.11% | R+30 | R |
91 | 37.73% | 59.66% | R+21.9 | 31.71% | 62.40% | R+30.7 | R |
92 | 51.81% | 46.05% | D+5.8 | 49.25% | 45.19% | D+4.1 | D |
93 | 34.28% | 63.70% | R+29.4 | 32.89% | 61.93% | R+29 | R |
94 | 82.54% | 16.46% | D+66.1 | 82.29% | 14.31% | D+68 | D |
95 | 77.93% | 21.08% | D+56.8 | 75.26% | 21.28% | D+54 | D |
96 | 84.99% | 13.71% | D+71.3 | 83.70% | 12.01% | D+71.7 | D |
97 | 53.11% | 44.02% | D+9.1 | 48.46% | 45.17% | D+3.3 | D |
98 | 82.27% | 16.60% | D+65.7 | 78.54% | 18.32% | D+60.2 | D |
99 | 83.25% | 15.77% | D+67.5 | 80.80% | 15.76% | D+65 | D |
100 | 61.83% | 35.60% | D+26.2 | 59.68% | 34.20% | D+25.5 | D |
Total | 43.94% | 54.15% | R+10.2 | 37.92% | 57.16% | R+19.2 | - |
Source: Daily Kos |
Election history
2016
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | 52.1% | 1,423,991 | ||
Democratic | Evan Bayh | 42.4% | 1,158,947 | |
Libertarian | Lucy Brenton | 5.5% | 149,481 | |
N/A | Write-in | 0% | 127 | |
Total Votes | 2,732,546 | |||
Source: Indiana Election Division |
2012
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | 50% | 1,281,181 | ||
Republican | Richard Mourdock | 44.3% | 1,133,621 | |
Libertarian | Andy Horning | 5.7% | 145,282 | |
Independent | James Johnson, Jr. | 0% | 15 | |
Independent | Amy Willis | 0% | 3 | |
Total Votes | 2,560,102 | |||
Source: Indiana Secretary of State "United States Senate Election Results" |
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
U.S. Senate wave elections | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[77] | |
1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped) | |
1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D | |
1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped) | |
1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -9 | R (flipped) | |
2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped) | |
1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -8 | D | |
2008 | George W. Bush | D | Presidential | -8 | D | |
1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[78] | -7 | R | |
1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R | |
1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -7 | D (flipped) |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Indiana heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, one Democrat and one Republican held the U.S. Senate seats in Indiana.
- Republicans held seven of nine U.S. House seats in Indiana.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Republicans held seven of 14 state executive positions, and seven positions were held by nonpartisan or independent officials.
- The governor of Indiana was Republican Eric Holcomb.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Indiana General Assembly. They had a 70-30 majority in the state House and a 41-9 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Indiana was a Republican trifecta, meaning the Republican Party held control of the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Indiana elections, 2018
Indiana held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One Senate seat
- Nine U.S. House seats
- Three lower state executive positions
- 25 of 50 state Senate seats
- 100 state House seats
- One state Supreme Court retention election
- One state Court of Appeals retention election
Demographics
Demographic data for Indiana | ||
---|---|---|
Indiana | U.S. | |
Total population: | 6,612,768 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 35,826 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 84.2% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 9.2% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 1.9% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 0.2% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2.2% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 6.4% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 87.8% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 24.1% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $49,255 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 18.4% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Indiana. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2016, Indiana had a population of approximately 6,600,000 people, with its three largest cities being Indianapolis (pop. est. 856,000), Fort Wayne (pop. est. 265,000), and Evansville (pop. est. 119,000).[79][80] The chart on the right shows demographic information for Indiana from 2010 to 2015.
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Indiana from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Indiana Secretary of State.[81]
Historical elections
Presidential elections
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Indiana every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Indiana 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | 56.8% | 37.9% | 18.9% | ||
2012 | 54.1% | 43.9% | 10.2% | ||
2008 | 50.0% | 48.9% | 1.1% | ||
2004 | 59.9% | 39.3% | 20.6% | ||
2000 | 56.7% | 41.0% | 15.7% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Indiana from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Indiana 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | 52.1% | 42.4% | 9.7% | ||
2012 | 50.0% | 44.3% | 5.7% | ||
2010 | 54.6% | 40.0% | 14.6% | ||
2006 | 87.3% | 12.6% | 74.7% | ||
2004 | 61.7% | 37.2% | 24.5% | ||
2000 | 66.5% | 31.9% | 34.6% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Indiana.
Election results (Governor), Indiana 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | 51.4% | 45.4% | 6.0% | ||
2012 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 3.4% | ||
2008 | 57.8% | 40.1% | 17.7% | ||
2004 | 53.2% | 45.5% | 7.7% | ||
2000 | 56.6% | 41.7% | 14.9% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Indiana in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Indiana Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas • Seventeen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana, 2018
- United States Senate elections, 2018
- Joe Donnelly
- United States Senate election in Indiana (May 8, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States Senate election in Indiana (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)
Footnotes
- ↑ Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, "DONNELLY, Joe, (1955 - )," accessed February 13, 2015
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 YouTube, "Joe for Indiana," accessed September 11, 2018
- ↑ Joe Donnelly for Senate, "Home," accessed September 11, 2018
- ↑ Mike Braun for Senate, "About," accessed September 11, 2018
- ↑ Mike Braun for Indiana, "Home," accessed September 11, 2018
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 YouTube, "Mike Braun for Indiana," accessed September 11, 2018
- ↑ Lucy Brenton for Senate, "Who is Lucy?" accessed September 11, 2018
- ↑ Lucy Brenton for Senate, "Issues," accessed September 11, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 Politico, "Pompeo thanks Saudi king as GOP senators sound alarms," October 16, 2018
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Axios, "The midwestern Senate race getting a $2 million boost from Trump's allies," September 26, 2018
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 Twitter, "Kevin Robillard," March 14, 2018
- ↑ Roll Call, "Conservative Group Targets McCaskill, Donnelly on Tax Vote," February 13, 2018
- ↑ Credit Union National Association, "CUNA launches first round of IEs for 2018 midterms," October 17, 2018
- ↑ Indianapolis Star, "Mike Pence attacks Joe Donnelly, praises Mike Braun in forthcoming Senate campaign ad," September 7, 2018
- ↑ One Nation, "One Nation Launches Tax Reform Push in Indiana," accessed July 12, 2018
- ↑ National Journal, "Hotline's Wakeup Call," October 2, 2018
- ↑ USA Today, "McConnell-aligned PAC unleashes $6.4 million ad blitz to protect Senate majority," September 11, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Breaking down the Arizona Senate race," July 3, 2018
- ↑ Washington Examiner, "Mitch McConnell's super PAC targets Joe Donnelly in Indiana," February 6, 2018
- ↑ NBC News, "Democrats dropping $21 million on Senate digital ads largely targeting health care," September 12, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Georgia Republican calls primary rival's use of a damaging secret recording 'evil'," July 16, 2018
- ↑ Senate Majority PAC, "SMP Launches Ad Campaign in Missouri and Indiana to Combat the Koch Brothers’ War Against Middle-class Families," February 15, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Morning Score," March 16, 2018
- ↑ 27.0 27.1 Indianapolis Star, "Indiana Senate race: US chamber gets involved while state chamber remains neutral," September 25, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ 32.0 32.1 Twitter, "Dan Merica on October 4, 2018"
- ↑ 33.0 33.1 Politico, "Trump tries to close out tight Senate races," November 1, 2018
- ↑ Joe Donnelly for Senate, "Joe Donnelly lands endorsement from the National Association of Realtors," accessed October 4, 2018
- ↑ People's Pundit Daily, "NFIB Endorses Mike Braun for U.S. Senate in Indiana," September 7, 2018
- ↑ TriState Homepage, "Indiana FOP endorses Sen. Donnelly in campaign for re-election," September 10, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Trump officials irked that Border Patrol union endorsed 3 Senate Democrats," October 26, 2018
- ↑ Roll Call, "Susan Brooks Chooses Sides in Indiana Senate Primary," September 20, 2017
- ↑ Twitter, "Todd Rokita," March 23, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Todd Rokita," March 13, 2018
- ↑ Luke Messer, "Messer Gains Endorsement from Southwest Indiana State Rep," March 8, 2018
- ↑ 42.0 42.1 42.2 42.3 42.4 42.5 Faceobok, "Mike Braun for Indiana, February 8, 2018
- ↑ 43.0 43.1 Luke Messer, "Allen County State Legislators Endorse Luke Messer," January 5, 2018
- ↑ Luke Messer, "Luke Messer Receives Tidal Wave of Support from Hamilton County Leaders," December 7, 2017
- ↑ The Indy Channel, "Indiana State Senate President Pro Tempore David Long endorses Luke Messer for U.S. Senate," August 10, 2017
- ↑ Howey Politics, "Rokita announces with Delph support," August 10, 2017
- ↑ 47.0 47.1 The Journal Gazette, "GOP frets about prospects for picking up Indiana Senate seat," September 19, 2018
- ↑ Axios, "Inside Trump's last-minute road trip," October 28, 2018
- ↑ ProPublica, "Receipts by Mike Braun For Indiana for Filing 1285431," accessed October 29, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "The Q3 fundraising toplines," October 16, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "Donnelly to vote 'no' on Kavanaugh," September 28, 2018
- ↑ Ipsos, "Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics," September 26, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Daily Kos Elections," September 24, 2018
- ↑ U.S. News & World Report, "Trump to Hold Rally in Evansville Next Week, Support Braun," August 22, 2018
- ↑ National Journal, "Hotline's Wake-Up Call!" accessed June 4, 2018
- ↑ IndyStar, "Senate race 2018: Democratic group attacks Braun days after GOP group goes after Donnelly," May 16, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "Dem super PAC launches ad defending Donnelly on taxes," March 16, 2018
- ↑ WIBC, "Indiana Senate Showdown: Donnelly vs. Braun on Trade," September 10, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Key red-state Democrat sides with Trump on wall funding," August 8, 2018
- ↑ Mike Braun for Indiana, "Issues," accessed August 13, 2018
- ↑ Washington Examiner, "Republican activists applaud Mike Braun for pre-existing conditions pledge," August 7, 2018
- ↑ Joe Donnelly, United States Senator for Indiana," July 19, 2018
- ↑ Indianapolis Star, "Indiana Senate race: Democrats send mailer praising Senate candidate from another party," October 29, 2018
- ↑ New York Times, "Kavanaugh Is Sworn In After Close Confirmation Vote in Senate Video," October 6, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "Donnelly to vote 'no' on Kavanaugh," September 28, 2018
- ↑ Breitbart, "Mike Braun: Joe Donnelly Made ‘Grave Mistake’ Opposing Brett Kavanaugh," September 28, 2018
- ↑ IndyStar, "Sen. Joe Donnelly selling stock after AP ties company to Mexican labor," July 14, 2017
- ↑ Associated Press, "Indiana candidate’s rhetoric, business record don’t line up," May 2, 2018
- ↑ Associated Press, "APNewsBreak: Outsourcing critic’s brand sells foreign parts," August 10, 2018
- ↑ Indianapolis Star, "5 things to watch in final Indiana Senate debate," October 30, 2018
- ↑ 71.0 71.1 71.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Joe Donnelly for Senate, “Issues,” accessed September 11, 2018
- ↑ Mike Braun for Senate, “Issues,” accessed September 11, 2018
- ↑ Lucy Brenton for Senate, “Issues,” accessed September 11, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑ Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
- ↑ Indiana Demographics, "Indiana Cities by Population," accessed January 9, 2018
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Indiana," accessed January 9, 2018
- ↑ Indiana Secretary of State, "Election Results," accessed September 5, 2018