West Virginia's 1st Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search



2022
2018
West Virginia's 1st Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 25, 2020
Primary: June 9, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
David McKinley (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in West Virginia
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
West Virginia's 1st Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd
West Virginia elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of West Virginia, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent David McKinley won election in the general election for U.S. House West Virginia District 1.

Watch the Candidate Conversation for this race!

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
January 25, 2020
June 9, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican David McKinley, who was first elected in 2010.

West Virginia's 1st Congressional District is located in the northern portion of the state and includes Barbour, Brooke, Doddridge, Gilmer, Grant, Hancock, Harrison, Marion, Marshall, Mineral, Monongalia, Ohio, Pleasants, Preston, Ritchie, Taylor, Tucker, Tyler, Wetzel, and Wood counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, West Virginia's 1st Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 30.3 31
Republican candidate Republican Party 68 69
Difference 37.7 38

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

West Virginia modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: All voters "concerned about their health and safety because of COVID-19" were eligible to vote absentee in the general election. An online absentee ballot request portal was created.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House West Virginia District 1

Incumbent David McKinley defeated Natalie Cline and Shawn Cosner in the general election for U.S. House West Virginia District 1 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of David McKinley
David McKinley (R)
 
69.0
 
180,488
Image of Natalie Cline
Natalie Cline (D) Candidate Connection
 
31.0
 
81,177
Image of Shawn Cosner
Shawn Cosner (Nonpartisan) (Write-in) Candidate Connection
 
0.0
 
0

Total votes: 261,665
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Watch the Candidate Conversation for this race!

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House West Virginia District 1

Natalie Cline defeated Tom Payne in the Democratic primary for U.S. House West Virginia District 1 on June 9, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Natalie Cline
Natalie Cline Candidate Connection
 
74.7
 
46,052
Image of Tom Payne
Tom Payne
 
25.3
 
15,559

Total votes: 61,611
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House West Virginia District 1

Incumbent David McKinley advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House West Virginia District 1 on June 9, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of David McKinley
David McKinley
 
100.0
 
64,511

Total votes: 64,511
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House West Virginia District 1

David Moran advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House West Virginia District 1 on April 8, 2020.

Candidate
Image of David Moran
David Moran (L)

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no pivot counties in West Virginia. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won West Virginia with 68.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 26.4 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, West Virginia cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, West Virginia supported Democratic and Republican candidates for president equally. West Virginia favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in West Virginia. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won four out of 67 state House districts in West Virginia with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won one out of 67 state House districts in West Virginia with an average margin of victory of 34.4 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 63 out of 67 state House districts in West Virginia with an average margin of victory of 31.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 67 state House districts in West Virginia with an average margin of victory of 46.8 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+19, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 19 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made West Virginia's 1st Congressional District the 40th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
David McKinley Republican Party $1,094,784 $1,088,039 $393,211 As of December 31, 2020
Natalie Cline Democratic Party $81,203 $82,052 $0 As of December 15, 2020
Shawn Cosner Nonpartisan $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: West Virginia's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 1st Congressional District candidates in West Virginia in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in West Virginia, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
West Virginia 1st Congressional District Recognized party 0 N/A $1,740.00 1% of annual salary 1/25/2020 Source
West Virginia 1st Congressional District Unaffiliated 1,982 1% of all votes cast in the last election for the office being sought $1,740.00 1% of annual salary 8/3/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: West Virginia's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House West Virginia District 1

Incumbent David McKinley defeated Kendra Fershee in the general election for U.S. House West Virginia District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of David McKinley
David McKinley (R)
 
64.6
 
127,997
Image of Kendra Fershee
Kendra Fershee (D)
 
35.4
 
70,217

Total votes: 198,214
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House West Virginia District 1

Kendra Fershee defeated Ralph Baxter and Tom Payne in the Democratic primary for U.S. House West Virginia District 1 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kendra Fershee
Kendra Fershee
 
47.2
 
23,137
Ralph Baxter
 
38.1
 
18,670
Image of Tom Payne
Tom Payne
 
14.6
 
7,169

Total votes: 48,976
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House West Virginia District 1

Incumbent David McKinley advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House West Virginia District 1 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
Image of David McKinley
David McKinley

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: West Virginia's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent David McKinley (R) defeated challenger Mike Manypenny (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent on May 10, 2016.[10]

U.S. House, West Virginia District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDavid McKinley Incumbent 69% 163,469
     Democratic Mike Manypenny 31% 73,534
Total Votes 237,003
Source: West Virginia Secretary of State

2014

See also: West Virginia's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 1st Congressional District of West Virginia held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent David McKinley (R) defeated Glen Gainer (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, West Virginia District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDavid McKinley Incumbent 63.9% 91,843
     Democratic Glen Gainer 36.1% 51,842
Total Votes 143,685
Source: West Virginia Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Republican Party (4)