Texas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020

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Texas' 4th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 9, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: July 14, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Vacant
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Texas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Texas' 4th Congressional District
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Texas elections, 2020
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All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Texas, held elections in 2020.

Pat Fallon won election in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 4.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 9, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election, this seat was vacant. It was last held by Republican John Ratcliffe, who was confirmed as the director of national intelligence (DNI) on May 21, 2020.[1]


Texas' 4th Congressional District is located in the northeastern portion of the state. Bowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Fannin, Franklin, Grayson, Hopkins, Hunt, Lamar, Marion, Morris, Rains, Red River, Rockwall, and Titus counties along with areas of Collin and Upshur counties make up the district.[2]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Texas' 4th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 24.4 22.6
Republican candidate Republican Party 74.4 75.1
Difference 50 52.5

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Texas modified its absentee/mail-in voting, candidate filing, and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Local election officials could not reject an absentee ballot due to a perceived signature mismatch unless the voter was given a pre-rejection notice of this finding and a "meaningful opportunity to cure his or her ballot's rejection." Return locations for absentee/mail-in ballots were limited to one per county.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The petition deadline for independent candidates for non-presidential office was extended to August 13, 2020.
  • Early voting: Early voting began on October 13, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 4

Pat Fallon defeated Russell Foster, Lou Antonelli, and Tracy Jones in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 4 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Pat Fallon
Pat Fallon (R)
 
75.1
 
253,837
Image of Russell Foster
Russell Foster (D) Candidate Connection
 
22.6
 
76,326
Image of Lou Antonelli
Lou Antonelli (L)
 
1.9
 
6,334
Image of Tracy Jones
Tracy Jones (Independent) (Write-in) Candidate Connection
 
0.4
 
1,306

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 337,803
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 4

Russell Foster advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 4 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Russell Foster
Russell Foster Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
24,970

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 24,970
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 4

Incumbent John Ratcliffe advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 4 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Ratcliffe
John Ratcliffe
 
100.0
 
92,373

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 92,373
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 4

Lou Antonelli advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Texas District 4 on March 21, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Lou Antonelli
Lou Antonelli (L)

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Due to Rep. John Ratcliffe's resignation and withdrawal from the race, the 4th Congressional District’s Republican Executive Committee convened on August 8, 2020, to choose a replacement candidate.[3][4][5] Texas State Senator Pat Fallon (R) earned the most votes and was selected as Ratcliffe's replacement candidate on the general election ballot.[6]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of 254 Texas counties—0.4 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Texas 0.48% 1.61% 2.25%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Texas with 52.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 43.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Texas cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 66.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Texas supported Democratic candidates slightly more often than Republicans, 53.3 to 46.7 percent. The state, however, favored Republicans in every presidential election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Texas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 54 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 65 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won 10 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 36.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 85 out of 150 state House districts in Texas with an average margin of victory of 34.5 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+28, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 28 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Texas' 4th Congressional District the eighth most Republican nationally.[9]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[10]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Russell Foster Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Pat Fallon Republican Party $257,176 $95,068 $162,109 As of December 31, 2020
Lou Antonelli Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Tracy Jones Independent $13,002 $10,595 $2,407 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[11]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[12][13][14]

Race ratings: Texas' 4th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 4th Congressional District candidates in Texas in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Texas, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Texas 4th Congressional District Democratic or Republican N/A N/A $3,125.00 Fixed number 12/9/2019 Source
Texas 4th Congressional District Unaffiliated 500 5% of all votes cast for governor in the district in the last election; not to exceed 500 N/A N/A 12/9/2019 (declaration of intent); 8/13/2020 (final filing deadline) Source

District election history

2018

See also: Texas' 4th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Texas District 4

Incumbent John Ratcliffe defeated Catherine Krantz and Ken Ashby in the general election for U.S. House Texas District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Ratcliffe
John Ratcliffe (R)
 
75.7
 
188,667
Image of Catherine Krantz
Catherine Krantz (D)
 
23.0
 
57,400
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Ken Ashby (L)
 
1.3
 
3,178

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 249,245
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 4

Catherine Krantz defeated Lander Bethel in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Texas District 4 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Catherine Krantz
Catherine Krantz
 
68.6
 
8,840
Image of Lander Bethel
Lander Bethel
 
31.4
 
4,048

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 12,888
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 4

Incumbent John Ratcliffe defeated John Cooper in the Republican primary for U.S. House Texas District 4 on March 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John Ratcliffe
John Ratcliffe
 
85.4
 
61,902
Image of John Cooper
John Cooper
 
14.6
 
10,560

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 72,462
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Texas' 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent John Ratcliffe (R) defeated Cody Wommack (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Ratcliffe defeated Lou Gigliotti and Ray Hall in the Republican primary on March 1, 2016.[15][16]

U.S. House, Texas District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Ratcliffe Incumbent 88% 216,643
     Libertarian Cody Wommack 12% 29,577
Total Votes 246,220
Source: Texas Secretary of State


U.S. House, Texas District 4 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Ratcliffe Incumbent 68% 77,254
Lou Gigliotti 21.1% 23,939
Ray Hall 10.9% 12,353
Total Votes 113,546
Source: Texas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Texas' 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Texas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. John Ratcliffe won with no opposition in the general election.[17]

U.S. House, Texas District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Ratcliffe 100% 115,085
Total Votes 115,085

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ CNN, "Senate confirms Ratcliffe to lead intelligence community under fire," May 21, 2020
  2. ↑ Texas Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed July 24, 2012
  3. ↑ Texas Scorecard, "Commentary: Another Vacancy," May 22, 2020
  4. ↑ Twitter, "Patrick Svitek tweet on May 28, 2020," accessed May 29, 2020
  5. ↑ Fallonforcongress.com, "Home," accessed July 22, 2020
  6. ↑ The Texas Tribune, "Texas State Sen. Pat Fallon wins GOP nomination to replace John Ratcliffe on November ballot, becoming Ratcliffe's likely successor," August 8, 2020
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  9. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  10. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  11. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  15. ↑ Texas Secretary of State, "2016 March Primary Election Candidate Filings by County," accessed December 15, 2015
  16. ↑ The New York Times, "Texas Primary Results," March 1, 2016
  17. ↑ The Huffington Post, "Election 2014," November 4, 2014


Texas' current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
John Cornyn (R)
Ted Cruz (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Al Green (D)
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Vacant
District 19
District 20
District 21
Chip Roy (R)
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
District 29
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District 31
District 32
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District 38
Republican Party (27)
Democratic Party (12)
Vacancies (1)


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