Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Oct. 19
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Sept. 28[2]
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (postmarked); Nov. 6 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: No ID
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
|
| Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: February 18, 2020 |
| Primary: June 2, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Mike Kelly (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Pennsylvania |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th Pennsylvania elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 16th Congressional District of Pennsylvania, held elections in 2020.
Incumbent Mike Kelly won election in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Mike Kelly, who was first elected in 2010.
Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District is located in northwestern Pennsylvania and includes portions of Butler, Crawford, Erie, Lawrence, and Mercer counties.[3]
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| Presidential and congressional election results, Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Presidential | U.S. House |
| Democratic candidate |
40 | 40.7 |
| Republican candidate |
58.7 | 59.3 |
| Difference | 18.7 | 18.6 |
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Pennsylvania modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:
- Absentee/mail-in voting: The mail-in ballot receipt deadline for the general election was extended to November 6, 2020. Drop boxes were made available to return ballots. The state provided prepaid return postage for all mail-in and absentee ballots.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16
Incumbent Mike Kelly defeated Kristy Gnibus in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Mike Kelly (R) | 59.3 | 210,088 | |
| Kristy Gnibus (D) | 40.7 | 143,962 | ||
| Total votes: 354,050 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16
Kristy Gnibus defeated Luisa Sonnek in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16 on June 2, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Kristy Gnibus | 100.0 | 63,640 | |
| Luisa Sonnek (Write-in) | 0.0 | 0 | ||
| Total votes: 63,640 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Edward DeSantis (D)
- Daniel Smith Jr. (D)
- Matthew Dale Cady (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16
Incumbent Mike Kelly advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16 on June 2, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Mike Kelly | 100.0 | 68,199 | |
| Total votes: 68,199 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Three of 67 Pennsylvania counties—4.5 percent—are pivot counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 pivot counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Erie County, Pennsylvania | 1.56% | 16.03% | 19.88% | ||||
| Luzerne County, Pennsylvania | 19.31% | 4.81% | 8.41% | ||||
| Northampton County, Pennsylvania | 3.78% | 4.71% | 12.30% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Pennsylvania with 48.2 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Pennsylvania cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 76.7 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Pennsylvania supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every presidential election between 2000 and 2012, but voted Republican in 2016.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Pennsylvania. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[4][5]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 89 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 84 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. Clinton won 19 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 114 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 20 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 119 out of 203 state House districts in Pennsylvania with an average margin of victory of 28.2 points. Trump won 17 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 Presidential Results by state House District ' | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 74.23% | 24.51% | D+49.7 | 62.96% | 33.11% | D+29.8 | D |
| 2 | 64.16% | 34.60% | D+29.6 | 54.43% | 40.91% | D+13.5 | D |
| 3 | 52.42% | 46.30% | D+6.1 | 45.74% | 49.76% | R+4 | D |
| 4 | 47.98% | 50.56% | R+2.6 | 34.90% | 60.52% | R+25.6 | R |
| 5 | 39.20% | 59.23% | R+20 | 30.95% | 64.64% | R+33.7 | R |
| 6 | 41.46% | 56.84% | R+15.4 | 33.98% | 61.68% | R+27.7 | R |
| 7 | 58.14% | 40.56% | D+17.6 | 44.84% | 51.68% | R+6.8 | D |
| 8 | 31.90% | 66.60% | R+34.7 | 24.28% | 71.25% | R+47 | R |
| 9 | 47.63% | 51.12% | R+3.5 | 36.69% | 60.36% | R+23.7 | D |
| 10 | 45.01% | 53.45% | R+8.4 | 35.93% | 59.86% | R+23.9 | R |
| 11 | 34.69% | 63.96% | R+29.3 | 28.50% | 66.88% | R+38.4 | R |
| 12 | 29.48% | 69.55% | R+40.1 | 31.88% | 64.41% | R+32.5 | R |
| 13 | 43.63% | 55.27% | R+11.6 | 42.73% | 53.04% | R+10.3 | R |
| 14 | 38.01% | 60.67% | R+22.7 | 32.28% | 64.15% | R+31.9 | R |
| 15 | 37.23% | 61.54% | R+24.3 | 31.00% | 65.48% | R+34.5 | R |
| 16 | 53.92% | 44.73% | D+9.2 | 46.00% | 50.52% | R+4.5 | D |
| 17 | 42.32% | 56.30% | R+14 | 29.47% | 66.56% | R+37.1 | R |
| 18 | 57.88% | 40.91% | D+17 | 52.85% | 44.12% | D+8.7 | R |
| 19 | 86.11% | 12.84% | D+73.3 | 83.38% | 13.65% | D+69.7 | D |
| 20 | 61.01% | 37.46% | D+23.6 | 60.52% | 34.84% | D+25.7 | D |
| 21 | 57.83% | 40.46% | D+17.4 | 59.05% | 36.62% | D+22.4 | D |
| 22 | 76.43% | 22.64% | D+53.8 | 72.60% | 24.54% | D+48.1 | D |
| 23 | 73.62% | 24.04% | D+49.6 | 80.06% | 16.36% | D+63.7 | D |
| 24 | 90.72% | 8.31% | D+82.4 | 90.51% | 7.00% | D+83.5 | D |
| 25 | 51.85% | 47.12% | D+4.7 | 50.07% | 46.87% | D+3.2 | D |
| 26 | 45.47% | 53.34% | R+7.9 | 43.50% | 52.49% | R+9 | R |
| 27 | 63.70% | 34.87% | D+28.8 | 60.79% | 35.34% | D+25.5 | D |
| 28 | 36.63% | 62.52% | R+25.9 | 43.46% | 52.61% | R+9.2 | R |
| 29 | 45.87% | 53.06% | R+7.2 | 46.10% | 50.52% | R+4.4 | R |
| 30 | 40.91% | 58.24% | R+17.3 | 44.48% | 51.61% | R+7.1 | R |
| 31 | 50.76% | 48.04% | D+2.7 | 55.20% | 41.17% | D+14 | D |
| 32 | 60.05% | 38.99% | D+21.1 | 59.16% | 37.83% | D+21.3 | D |
| 33 | 49.03% | 49.75% | R+0.7 | 45.55% | 50.80% | R+5.3 | D |
| 34 | 68.62% | 30.16% | D+38.5 | 68.78% | 28.17% | D+40.6 | D |
| 35 | 63.94% | 35.20% | D+28.7 | 57.89% | 39.41% | D+18.5 | D |
| 36 | 60.88% | 37.46% | D+23.4 | 56.42% | 39.30% | D+17.1 | D |
| 37 | 28.95% | 69.66% | R+40.7 | 26.19% | 69.00% | R+42.8 | R |
| 38 | 50.42% | 48.41% | D+2 | 46.28% | 50.58% | R+4.3 | D |
| 39 | 40.59% | 58.52% | R+17.9 | 36.49% | 60.37% | R+23.9 | R |
| 40 | 36.83% | 62.34% | R+25.5 | 41.12% | 55.57% | R+14.4 | R |
| 41 | 42.46% | 56.09% | R+13.6 | 41.74% | 53.32% | R+11.6 | R |
| 42 | 55.31% | 43.47% | D+11.8 | 60.20% | 35.63% | D+24.6 | D |
| 43 | 36.53% | 62.17% | R+25.6 | 36.27% | 58.57% | R+22.3 | R |
| 44 | 41.51% | 57.51% | R+16 | 43.16% | 53.29% | R+10.1 | R |
| 45 | 51.33% | 47.58% | D+3.7 | 49.81% | 46.66% | D+3.2 | D |
| 46 | 44.33% | 54.63% | R+10.3 | 39.68% | 56.72% | R+17 | R |
| 47 | 40.06% | 58.68% | R+18.6 | 34.74% | 60.75% | R+26 | R |
| 48 | 45.49% | 53.23% | R+7.7 | 40.70% | 55.39% | R+14.7 | D |
| 49 | 49.95% | 48.61% | D+1.3 | 37.74% | 58.75% | R+21 | R |
| 50 | 46.33% | 52.50% | R+6.2 | 33.66% | 63.80% | R+30.1 | D |
| 51 | 41.10% | 57.87% | R+16.8 | 30.84% | 66.70% | R+35.9 | R |
| 52 | 40.85% | 57.93% | R+17.1 | 30.15% | 67.36% | R+37.2 | R |
| 53 | 48.81% | 49.75% | R+0.9 | 48.69% | 46.74% | D+2 | R |
| 54 | 36.11% | 62.89% | R+26.8 | 34.91% | 61.80% | R+26.9 | R |
| 55 | 39.89% | 58.83% | R+18.9 | 31.43% | 65.24% | R+33.8 | D |
| 56 | 34.08% | 64.90% | R+30.8 | 31.32% | 65.45% | R+34.1 | R |
| 57 | 36.37% | 62.35% | R+26 | 33.60% | 62.73% | R+29.1 | R |
| 58 | 43.41% | 55.41% | R+12 | 34.02% | 63.22% | R+29.2 | R |
| 59 | 31.93% | 66.81% | R+34.9 | 26.42% | 70.50% | R+44.1 | R |
| 60 | 30.82% | 67.77% | R+37 | 24.08% | 72.85% | R+48.8 | R |
| 61 | 51.45% | 47.61% | D+3.8 | 56.68% | 39.73% | D+16.9 | R |
| 62 | 43.10% | 55.21% | R+12.1 | 34.47% | 61.69% | R+27.2 | R |
| 63 | 29.59% | 68.69% | R+39.1 | 22.17% | 74.25% | R+52.1 | R |
| 64 | 34.96% | 63.20% | R+28.2 | 26.01% | 69.72% | R+43.7 | R |
| 65 | 39.55% | 58.80% | R+19.3 | 27.22% | 68.57% | R+41.4 | R |
| 66 | 27.05% | 71.53% | R+44.5 | 18.49% | 78.42% | R+59.9 | R |
| 67 | 32.35% | 65.98% | R+33.6 | 22.32% | 74.12% | R+51.8 | R |
| 68 | 31.27% | 66.99% | R+35.7 | 20.98% | 74.62% | R+53.6 | R |
| 69 | 25.99% | 72.68% | R+46.7 | 18.90% | 78.57% | R+59.7 | R |
| 70 | 63.08% | 35.97% | D+27.1 | 63.15% | 33.72% | D+29.4 | D |
| 71 | 42.84% | 55.39% | R+12.5 | 34.58% | 62.24% | R+27.7 | D |
| 72 | 37.01% | 61.10% | R+24.1 | 26.49% | 70.36% | R+43.9 | D |
| 73 | 38.10% | 60.27% | R+22.2 | 24.79% | 72.19% | R+47.4 | R |
| 74 | 62.76% | 36.10% | D+26.7 | 60.37% | 35.55% | D+24.8 | R |
| 75 | 36.38% | 62.06% | R+25.7 | 24.79% | 71.59% | R+46.8 | R |
| 76 | 39.88% | 58.53% | R+18.6 | 29.08% | 67.03% | R+37.9 | D |
| 77 | 59.83% | 37.36% | D+22.5 | 60.78% | 33.56% | D+27.2 | D |
| 78 | 22.54% | 76.40% | R+53.9 | 16.03% | 81.71% | R+65.7 | R |
| 79 | 39.22% | 59.27% | R+20 | 30.70% | 65.55% | R+34.9 | R |
| 80 | 26.47% | 72.45% | R+46 | 20.96% | 76.10% | R+55.1 | R |
| 81 | 35.33% | 63.30% | R+28 | 30.25% | 66.04% | R+35.8 | R |
| 82 | 26.74% | 72.05% | R+45.3 | 19.62% | 77.01% | R+57.4 | R |
| 83 | 38.82% | 59.70% | R+20.9 | 32.82% | 62.88% | R+30.1 | R |
| 84 | 26.66% | 72.04% | R+45.4 | 18.99% | 77.66% | R+58.7 | R |
| 85 | 35.45% | 62.97% | R+27.5 | 31.55% | 64.64% | R+33.1 | R |
| 86 | 33.17% | 65.18% | R+32 | 25.57% | 69.93% | R+44.4 | R |
| 87 | 41.20% | 57.38% | R+16.2 | 41.82% | 53.91% | R+12.1 | R |
| 88 | 41.23% | 57.13% | R+15.9 | 41.39% | 53.53% | R+12.1 | R |
| 89 | 34.19% | 64.52% | R+30.3 | 29.92% | 66.31% | R+36.4 | R |
| 90 | 28.09% | 70.61% | R+42.5 | 22.85% | 73.48% | R+50.6 | R |
| 91 | 37.65% | 60.93% | R+23.3 | 32.20% | 63.86% | R+31.7 | R |
| 92 | 31.91% | 66.77% | R+34.9 | 28.03% | 67.52% | R+39.5 | R |
| 93 | 34.53% | 63.91% | R+29.4 | 31.05% | 64.67% | R+33.6 | R |
| 94 | 35.78% | 62.70% | R+26.9 | 28.86% | 66.88% | R+38 | R |
| 95 | 65.14% | 33.21% | D+31.9 | 61.43% | 33.92% | D+27.5 | D |
| 96 | 74.86% | 23.26% | D+51.6 | 73.28% | 21.55% | D+51.7 | D |
| 97 | 40.15% | 58.50% | R+18.4 | 42.36% | 52.82% | R+10.5 | R |
| 98 | 37.73% | 60.63% | R+22.9 | 32.52% | 61.78% | R+29.3 | R |
| 99 | 28.97% | 69.60% | R+40.6 | 25.97% | 68.75% | R+42.8 | R |
| 100 | 34.03% | 64.51% | R+30.5 | 28.29% | 67.35% | R+39.1 | R |
| 101 | 39.74% | 58.92% | R+19.2 | 37.40% | 58.74% | R+21.3 | R |
| 102 | 31.56% | 66.91% | R+35.3 | 24.88% | 71.23% | R+46.3 | R |
| 103 | 81.25% | 17.74% | D+63.5 | 78.28% | 18.44% | D+59.8 | D |
| 104 | 46.98% | 51.71% | R+4.7 | 42.83% | 53.30% | R+10.5 | R |
| 105 | 45.32% | 53.34% | R+8 | 44.00% | 51.91% | R+7.9 | R |
| 106 | 43.98% | 54.60% | R+10.6 | 43.80% | 51.46% | R+7.7 | R |
| 107 | 42.37% | 55.71% | R+13.3 | 28.98% | 66.96% | R+38 | R |
| 108 | 34.84% | 63.47% | R+28.6 | 26.52% | 69.44% | R+42.9 | R |
| 109 | 42.93% | 55.31% | R+12.4 | 32.18% | 63.26% | R+31.1 | R |
| 110 | 38.40% | 59.80% | R+21.4 | 25.85% | 69.59% | R+43.7 | R |
| 111 | 39.36% | 59.14% | R+19.8 | 28.62% | 67.57% | R+39 | R |
| 112 | 69.10% | 29.74% | D+39.4 | 55.53% | 41.46% | D+14.1 | D |
| 113 | 67.49% | 31.46% | D+36 | 56.83% | 40.31% | D+16.5 | D |
| 114 | 58.64% | 40.26% | D+18.4 | 44.66% | 52.39% | R+7.7 | D |
| 115 | 64.27% | 34.56% | D+29.7 | 58.15% | 38.28% | D+19.9 | D |
| 116 | 40.79% | 57.87% | R+17.1 | 31.33% | 66.07% | R+34.7 | R |
| 117 | 41.83% | 56.50% | R+14.7 | 30.66% | 66.00% | R+35.3 | R |
| 118 | 55.83% | 43.08% | D+12.8 | 40.74% | 56.46% | R+15.7 | D |
| 119 | 51.23% | 47.10% | D+4.1 | 35.40% | 61.77% | R+26.4 | D |
| 120 | 53.79% | 44.76% | D+9 | 42.55% | 54.62% | R+12.1 | R |
| 121 | 61.17% | 37.18% | D+24 | 47.71% | 48.91% | R+1.2 | D |
| 122 | 44.86% | 53.22% | R+8.4 | 30.76% | 65.46% | R+34.7 | R |
| 123 | 51.65% | 46.75% | D+4.9 | 31.73% | 65.03% | R+33.3 | D |
| 124 | 37.56% | 60.67% | R+23.1 | 25.51% | 70.74% | R+45.2 | R |
| 125 | 36.51% | 62.03% | R+25.5 | 23.43% | 72.95% | R+49.5 | R |
| 126 | 63.45% | 34.97% | D+28.5 | 57.62% | 38.36% | D+19.3 | D |
| 127 | 80.68% | 18.33% | D+62.4 | 77.08% | 19.95% | D+57.1 | D |
| 128 | 41.43% | 57.06% | R+15.6 | 38.02% | 57.47% | R+19.5 | R |
| 129 | 41.67% | 56.89% | R+15.2 | 37.61% | 57.86% | R+20.3 | R |
| 130 | 42.78% | 55.70% | R+12.9 | 35.25% | 60.10% | R+24.9 | R |
| 131 | 44.49% | 54.03% | R+9.5 | 41.91% | 53.76% | R+11.9 | R |
| 132 | 65.53% | 33.25% | D+32.3 | 64.10% | 32.82% | D+31.3 | D |
| 133 | 59.02% | 39.41% | D+19.6 | 52.89% | 42.75% | D+10.1 | D |
| 134 | 43.39% | 55.42% | R+12 | 41.92% | 54.04% | R+12.1 | R |
| 135 | 64.54% | 34.06% | D+30.5 | 61.91% | 34.09% | D+27.8 | D |
| 136 | 59.36% | 39.16% | D+20.2 | 53.35% | 42.48% | D+10.9 | D |
| 137 | 46.66% | 52.14% | R+5.5 | 40.33% | 56.02% | R+15.7 | R |
| 138 | 43.63% | 55.31% | R+11.7 | 39.52% | 56.92% | R+17.4 | R |
| 139 | 39.33% | 59.34% | R+20 | 30.73% | 66.15% | R+35.4 | R |
| 140 | 63.59% | 35.05% | D+28.5 | 54.38% | 41.60% | D+12.8 | D |
| 141 | 62.97% | 35.53% | D+27.4 | 52.82% | 43.31% | D+9.5 | D |
| 142 | 49.07% | 49.78% | R+0.7 | 46.32% | 50.25% | R+3.9 | R |
| 143 | 45.51% | 53.19% | R+7.7 | 47.61% | 48.14% | R+0.5 | R |
| 144 | 44.70% | 54.17% | R+9.5 | 45.34% | 50.70% | R+5.4 | R |
| 145 | 44.16% | 54.36% | R+10.2 | 39.59% | 55.70% | R+16.1 | R |
| 146 | 50.85% | 47.96% | D+2.9 | 48.37% | 47.29% | D+1.1 | R |
| 147 | 43.65% | 54.97% | R+11.3 | 41.16% | 54.54% | R+13.4 | R |
| 148 | 60.73% | 38.33% | D+22.4 | 67.12% | 29.75% | D+37.4 | D |
| 149 | 60.45% | 38.56% | D+21.9 | 66.82% | 29.98% | D+36.8 | D |
| 150 | 49.69% | 49.13% | D+0.6 | 51.73% | 44.27% | D+7.5 | R |
| 151 | 50.81% | 48.28% | D+2.5 | 55.25% | 41.23% | D+14 | R |
| 152 | 52.27% | 46.64% | D+5.6 | 54.58% | 41.63% | D+12.9 | R |
| 153 | 63.65% | 35.32% | D+28.3 | 66.36% | 30.20% | D+36.2 | D |
| 154 | 74.52% | 24.59% | D+49.9 | 77.91% | 19.15% | D+58.8 | D |
| 155 | 47.56% | 51.25% | R+3.7 | 51.80% | 43.97% | D+7.8 | R |
| 156 | 49.44% | 49.46% | R+0 | 54.28% | 41.62% | D+12.7 | D |
| 157 | 52.13% | 46.72% | D+5.4 | 58.80% | 37.01% | D+21.8 | R |
| 158 | 48.38% | 50.45% | R+2.1 | 52.99% | 42.96% | D+10 | R |
| 159 | 83.68% | 15.63% | D+68 | 77.53% | 20.25% | D+57.3 | D |
| 160 | 46.71% | 52.30% | R+5.6 | 49.20% | 47.16% | D+2 | R |
| 161 | 55.77% | 43.14% | D+12.6 | 53.41% | 43.19% | D+10.2 | D |
| 162 | 57.37% | 41.38% | D+16 | 49.64% | 46.80% | D+2.8 | R |
| 163 | 55.33% | 43.45% | D+11.9 | 54.70% | 41.57% | D+13.1 | R |
| 164 | 82.20% | 16.96% | D+65.2 | 81.93% | 15.75% | D+66.2 | D |
| 165 | 48.98% | 50.02% | R+1 | 51.81% | 44.91% | D+6.9 | R |
| 166 | 61.53% | 37.33% | D+24.2 | 67.49% | 28.93% | D+38.6 | D |
| 167 | 48.42% | 50.53% | R+2.1 | 55.67% | 40.48% | D+15.2 | R |
| 168 | 47.78% | 51.08% | R+3.3 | 51.51% | 44.79% | D+6.7 | R |
| 169 | 34.04% | 64.45% | R+30.4 | 27.83% | 67.92% | R+40.1 | R |
| 170 | 56.95% | 42.17% | D+14.8 | 49.20% | 48.35% | D+0.9 | R |
| 171 | 40.68% | 57.64% | R+17 | 39.86% | 55.53% | R+15.7 | R |
| 172 | 59.28% | 39.77% | D+19.5 | 55.26% | 41.93% | D+13.3 | D |
| 173 | 64.49% | 34.35% | D+30.1 | 56.90% | 40.57% | D+16.3 | D |
| 174 | 61.67% | 37.38% | D+24.3 | 57.06% | 40.39% | D+16.7 | D |
| 175 | 79.87% | 18.59% | D+61.3 | 81.59% | 15.10% | D+66.5 | D |
| 176 | 50.90% | 47.71% | D+3.2 | 41.51% | 54.94% | R+13.4 | R |
| 177 | 65.38% | 33.22% | D+32.2 | 56.98% | 39.92% | D+17.1 | R |
| 178 | 42.85% | 56.21% | R+13.4 | 46.82% | 50.00% | R+3.2 | R |
| 179 | 92.03% | 7.63% | D+84.4 | 89.49% | 8.95% | D+80.5 | D |
| 180 | 91.88% | 7.78% | D+84.1 | 90.18% | 8.68% | D+81.5 | D |
| 181 | 94.57% | 4.54% | D+90 | 92.34% | 5.28% | D+87.1 | D |
| 182 | 80.77% | 17.83% | D+62.9 | 85.13% | 12.25% | D+72.9 | D |
| 183 | 46.31% | 52.33% | R+6 | 37.34% | 58.86% | R+21.5 | R |
| 184 | 74.15% | 24.62% | D+49.5 | 68.00% | 29.12% | D+38.9 | D |
| 185 | 81.50% | 18.03% | D+63.5 | 77.31% | 21.01% | D+56.3 | D |
| 186 | 92.45% | 6.89% | D+85.6 | 90.67% | 7.27% | D+83.4 | D |
| 187 | 41.65% | 56.98% | R+15.3 | 39.49% | 56.43% | R+16.9 | R |
| 188 | 92.78% | 5.93% | D+86.9 | 93.67% | 3.86% | D+89.8 | D |
| 189 | 52.75% | 45.91% | D+6.8 | 45.71% | 51.06% | R+5.4 | R |
| 190 | 97.49% | 2.19% | D+95.3 | 95.73% | 2.77% | D+93 | D |
| 191 | 97.46% | 2.39% | D+95.1 | 95.90% | 3.11% | D+92.8 | D |
| 192 | 96.72% | 3.08% | D+93.6 | 95.06% | 3.68% | D+91.4 | D |
| 193 | 32.78% | 65.92% | R+33.1 | 27.49% | 68.67% | R+41.2 | R |
| 194 | 70.09% | 28.46% | D+41.6 | 72.03% | 24.29% | D+47.7 | D |
| 195 | 92.86% | 6.25% | D+86.6 | 92.54% | 5.33% | D+87.2 | D |
| 196 | 35.76% | 62.90% | R+27.1 | 28.34% | 67.63% | R+39.3 | R |
| 197 | 97.04% | 2.75% | D+94.3 | 95.62% | 3.52% | D+92.1 | D |
| 198 | 97.73% | 1.99% | D+95.7 | 96.12% | 2.54% | D+93.6 | D |
| 199 | 39.71% | 58.82% | R+19.1 | 37.16% | 58.63% | R+21.5 | R |
| 200 | 94.69% | 4.79% | D+89.9 | 94.29% | 3.97% | D+90.3 | D |
| 201 | 98.24% | 1.52% | D+96.7 | 96.47% | 2.17% | D+94.3 | D |
| 202 | 80.92% | 18.39% | D+62.5 | 78.97% | 19.01% | D+60 | D |
| 203 | 96.00% | 3.80% | D+92.2 | 94.44% | 4.23% | D+90.2 | D |
| Total | 52.08% | 46.68% | D+5.4 | 47.85% | 48.58% | R+0.7 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+8, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District the 160th most Republican nationally.[6]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[7]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[8] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[9] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Kelly | Republican Party | $2,300,601 | $1,380,453 | $958,525 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Kristy Gnibus | Democratic Party | $593,635 | $588,884 | $4,751 | As of December 31, 2020 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]
| Race ratings: Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | Likely Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16
Incumbent Mike Kelly defeated Ronald DiNicola and Ebert Beeman in the general election for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Mike Kelly (R) | 51.6 | 135,348 | |
| Ronald DiNicola (D) | 47.3 | 124,109 | ||
| Ebert Beeman (L) | 1.1 | 2,939 | ||
| Total votes: 262,396 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16
Ronald DiNicola defeated Chris Rieger and Robert Multari in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Ronald DiNicola | 60.0 | 23,480 | |
| Chris Rieger | 24.9 | 9,758 | ||
| Robert Multari | 15.1 | 5,914 | ||
| Total votes: 39,152 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16
Incumbent Mike Kelly advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Pennsylvania District 16 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Mike Kelly | 100.0 | 39,412 | |
| Total votes: 39,412 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Results prior to 2018 redistricting
On February 19, 2018, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court adopted a new congressional district map after ruling that the original map constituted an illegal partisan gerrymander. District locations and numbers were changed by the new map. Click here for more information about the ruling.
To view prior results from the same numeric district, click [show] to expand the section. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2016Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Joseph Pitts (R) retired in 2016 and did not seek re-election to represent District 16. Lloyd Smucker (R) defeated Christina Hartman (D) and Shawn Patrick House (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Smucker defeated Chet Beiler in the Republican primary on April 26, 2016, while Hartman won the Democratic nomination without opposition.[14][15]
2014Joseph R. Pitts won re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. He defeated former state Representative Tom Houghton in the general election.
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See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ In Pennsylvania, in-person mail-in voting is available (i.e., a voter can visit a county election office, obtain a mail-in ballot, and return it).
- ↑ In Pennsylvania, in-person mail-in voting is available (i.e., a voter can visit a county election office, obtain a mail-in ballot, and return it).
- ↑ Pennsylvania Courts, "Composite Listing of Congressional Districts," accessed April 12, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Pennsylvania Department of State, "Unofficial Candidate Listing – Pre Ballot Lottery," accessed February 17, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "Pennsylvania Primary Results," April 26, 2016
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