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Presidential voting trends by state
| Presidential Election voting trends |
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| Read more about what a Bellwether is and Presidential election accuracy. |
| Voting trends by state |
When it comes to picking winners, which state does it best? For presidential races, Ohio was considered a bellwether state because it was 100% accurate in every presidential election cycle between 1964 and 2016. Across elections held between 2000 and 2024, three states had an accuracy above 80%: Florida, Nevada, and Ohio.
This page provides an overview of each state's voting accuracy in presidential elections from 1900 to 2024. The majority of statistical data is from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration and has been compiled here by Ballotpedia unless otherwise noted.
Click on any of the following links to jump to that section:
- Presidential voting accuracy by state: This section features a table comparing overall and recent presidential accuracy figures for each state.
- Presidential election accuracy, 1900-2024: This section looks at overall presidential election accuracy in the past 31 elections. It notes which states have had fewer elections and which states are the most accurate.
- Presidential election accuracy, 2000-2024: This section reviews presidential election accuracy in recent elections held between 2000 and 2024.
- Other considerations: This section discusses instances of split electoral votes and minor party candidates during this time period.
Presidential voting accuracy by state
The following table compares the presidential voting accuracy of each state and the District of Columbia between 1900-2024 and 2000-2024.
Presidential election accuracy, 1900-2024
Number of election cycles
Not all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated in all 31 elections between 1900 and 2024. The following jurisdictions are exceptions:
- Alaska: First presidential election was in 1960 (17 elections)
- Arizona: First presidential election was in 1912 (29 elections)
- District of Columbia: First presidential election was in 1964 (16 elections)
- Hawaii: First presidential election was in 1960 (17 elections)
- New Mexico: First presidential election was in 1912 (29 elections)
- Oklahoma: First presidential election was in 1908 (30 elections)
Most accurate states, 1900-2024
Between 1900 and 2024, five states had a presidential voting accuracy rating above 80%:
- Illinois
- Missouri
- Nevada
- New Mexico
- Ohio
Map of presidential voting accuracy, 1900-2024
The following map compares the presidential voting accuracy of each state in elections held between 1900 and 2024. States marked light green have lower accuracy, and those marked dark blue have higher accuracy.
Presidential election accuracy, 2000-2024
In the seven presidential elections held between 2000 and 2024, 22 had a presidential voting accuracy of 57.1% and 16 states had a presidential voting accuracy of 42.9%. This was largely due to partisan polarization: the majority of these states voted for the same party in each of the most recent seven election cycles.
Three states had a presidential voting accuracy above 80% over this time period:
- Florida
- Nevada
- Ohio
The following map compares the presidential voting accuracy of each state in elections held between 2000 and 2024. States marked light green have lower accuracy, and those marked dark blue have higher accuracy.
Other considerations
Some states saw minor party candidate victories between 1900 and 2024. This happened in four presidential election cycles: 1912, 1924, 1948, and 1968. A few states have also split their vote, such as Nebraska in 2008, 2020, and 2024, and Maine in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Minor party candidate races
In some presidential elections between 1900 and 2024, minor party candidates entered the race and received electoral votes from states. Theodore Roosevelt, in 1912, captured six states for the Progressive Party. More recently in 1968, George Wallace won five southern states for the American Independent Party. Below is a list of these elections.
- 1912: Woodrow Wilson ran as the Democratic candidate, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a Progressive candidate, and William H. Taft ran as the Republican candidate. Taft won Utah and Vermont, while Roosevelt won 11 electoral votes (Wilson got two) from California, 15 from Michigan, 12 from Minnesota, 38 in Pennsylvania, five from South Dakota, and seven from Washington.[2]
- 1924: Calvin Coolidge ran as a Republican, John W. Davis ran as a Democrat, and Robert M. La Follette Sr. ran as a Progressive; La Follette only won Wisconsin, his home state.[3]
- 1948: Harry S. Truman ran as a Democrat, Thomas E. Dewey ran as a Republican, and J. Strom Thurmond ran under the States' Rights Democratic Party, also known as the Dixiecrats. Thurmond won Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina.[4]
- 1960: Not the party nominee and not on the ballot, Democrat Harry F. Byrd took six electoral votes in Alabama, one in Oklahoma, and eight in Mississippi, winning the state in the election against Richard Nixon (R) and John F. Kennedy (D).[5][6]
- 1968: Richard Nixon ran as the Republican, Hubert H. Humphrey ran as the Democrat, and George Wallace ran under the American Independent Party and won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi.[7]
- 1992: While Ross Perot, an Independent, participated in the presidential debates and held as much as 19 percent in the polls, he did not receive any electoral votes.[8][9]
Split electoral votes
In some presidential elections, states have split their electoral votes between candidates.
- 1904: Maryland split its electoral votes; Theodore Roosevelt (R) received one vote and Alton B. Parker (D) received seven.[10]
- 1908: Maryland split its electoral votes; William H. Taft (R) received two votes and William J. Bryan (D) received six.[10]
- 1912: California split its electoral votes; Theodore Roosevelt (Progressive) won 11 votes, and Woodrow Wilson (D) received two.[10]
- 1916: West Virginia split its electoral votes, casting one vote for Woodrow Wilson (D) and seven for Charles Hughes (R).[11]
- 1948: Tennessee split its electoral votes, casting one vote for J. Strom Thurmond (States' Rights Democratic Party) and 11 votes for Harry S. Truman (D).[12]
- 1960: Alabama and Oklahoma split their electoral votes. In Oklahoma, one elector voted for Harry F. Byrd (D), while the seven other votes went to Richard Nixon (R). In Alabama, Byrd received six unpledged electoral votes, while Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy won the state popular vote and received five electoral votes.[13]
- 1968: North Carolina split its electoral votes, casting one vote for George Wallace (American Independent Party) and 12 votes for Richard Nixon (R).[14]
- 2008: Nebraska split its electoral votes, with John McCain (R) winning four votes and Barack Obama (D) receiving one.[15][16]
- 2016: Maine split its electoral votes; Hillary Clinton (D) received three votes and Donald Trump (R) received one.[17][18]
- 2020: Maine split its electoral votes: Joe Biden (D) received three votes and Donald Trump (R) received one. Nebraska also split its electoral votes: Trump received four votes and Biden received one.
- 2024: Maine split its electoral votes: Kamala Harris (D) received three votes and Donald Trump (R) received one. Nebraska also split its electoral votes: Trump received four votes and Harris received one.
See also
Use the dropdown menu below to navigate Ballotpedia's coverage of presidential election voting trends in each state.
- Presidential voting history by state
- Presidential voting trends by state
- Presidential election accuracy data
- Presidential statewide margins of victory of five percentage points or fewer, 1948-2024
- Splits between the Electoral College and popular vote
- Results of U.S. House elections in presidential election years, 1920-2020
External links
- U.S. National Archives and Records Administration
- University of California Santa Barbara, The American Presidency Project
Footnotes
- ↑ Home states are defined by the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration.
- ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1904-1912," accessed June 21, 2016
- ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1917-1929," accessed June 21, 2016
- ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1940-1948," accessed June 21, 2016
- ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1960," accessed June 21, 2016
- ↑ 270 to Win, "1960 Presidential Election," accessed July 31, 2019
- ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1964-1972," accessed June 21, 2016
- ↑ Pew Research, "When Presidential Debates Matter," September 24, 2004
- ↑ University of California Santa Barbara, "The American Presidency Project, Election of 1992," accessed August 16, 2016
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1904-1912," accessed June 21, 2016
- ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 1916-1924," accessed August 1, 2016
- ↑ 270 to Win, "1948 Presidential Election," accessed July 31, 2019
- ↑ 270 to Win, "1960 Presidential Election," accessed July 31, 2019
- ↑ 270 to Win, "1968 Presidential Election," accessed July 31, 2019
- ↑ U.S. National Archives and Records Administration, "Electoral Votes, 2000-2012," accessed June 21, 2016
- ↑ The U.S. National Archives explained, "Nebraska distributes its electoral votes proportionally, with two at-large electors representing the statewide winning presidential and vice presidential candidates and one elector each representing the winners from its three Congressional districts … The McCain-Palin ticket won Nebraska overall and received the two at-large electors, as well as the electors from the First and Third Congressional Districts, where McCain-Palin also won. However, the Obama-Biden ticket won the Second Congressional District and, thus, received its one elector."
- ↑ CNN, "Maine Results, 2016 Election," accessed November 10, 2016
- ↑ In Maine, the winner of the popular vote receives two electoral votes while the remaining votes are awarded to the winner of each congressional district.
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