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Geopolitics of renewable energy development: The role of energy metals

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  • Lin, Boqiang
  • Zhang, Zongyou
Abstract
The transition to renewable energy (RE) necessitates a substantial increase in the supply of energy metals (EM). However, China's EM supply chains are vulnerable to geopolitical risk (GPR) due to its heavy reliance on EM imports. As an essential material for supporting the development of RE, will EM emerge as the new geopolitical chip during the shift towards RE? Employing the TVP-VAR-SV model, this study investigates the time-varying linkages among GPR, RE, and EM using monthly time series data spanning from December 2012 to April 2024. The findings reveal that: (1) GPR exhibits evident time-varying and predominantly exerts a negative impact on China's RE. One potential consequence of GPR is its disruption to the stability of the EM supply chain. (2) The rapid advancement of RE in China may instigate novel forms of geopolitical conflicts, with the development of EM playing a crucial role in mitigating GPR. (3) The effects of shocks stemming from GPR on RE vary across different time points. This research offers specific policy recommendations for risk prevention and strengthening China's energy security such as emphasizing diversification in EM sourcing throughout its ongoing process of transitioning to alternative sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Zongyou, 2025. "Geopolitics of renewable energy development: The role of energy metals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:198:y:2025:i:c:s0301421524005020
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114482
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