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An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Pino
  • Dilara Tas
  • Subhash C. Sharma
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of the exchange rate volatility on the export flows of Indonesia, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines during 1974--2011. Towards this goal a trade weighted real effective (rather than the bilateral) exchange rate and three different measures of volatility, i.e. obtained from an ARCH model, a GARCH model and a moving-average standard deviation measure are used in this study. Specifically, the export flows between six Asian countries and the rest of the world are investigated rather than focusing on trade with only one country. Our findings reveal that the exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on export flows in the short run as well as in the long run for all the countries in the sample. The impact in the long run is predominantly negative with the exception of Singapore, but in the short run the impact varies across countries. Moreover, our results are robust to the alternative measures of volatility used and most of the findings in the long run and short run are also robust to the crisis period.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Pino & Dilara Tas & Subhash C. Sharma, 2016. "An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2397-2411, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:26:p:2397-2411
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1122730
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2008. "Impact Of Exchange Rate Uncertainty On Commodity Trade Between The Us And Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 235-258, September.
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    4. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate movements on exports: An analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 231-245.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
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    Cited by:

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    4. Heidi Aly & Rana Hosni, 2018. "Examining the nexus between exchange rate volatility and export performance: Empirical evidence from the Egyptian experience," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(3), pages 542-560, June.
    5. Warnes Ignacio & Grosz Fernando Andrés, 2023. "Real exchange rate volatility and Argentine sectoral exports: evidence of a long-run relationship," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4700, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    6. Carlos Moslares & E. M. Ekanayake, 2018. "The Effect Of Real Exchange Rate Volatility On Exports In The Baltic Region," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 12(1), pages 23-38.
    7. repec:ibf:ijbfre:v:11:y:2017:i:2:p:23-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Jungho Baek, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from Korea‐U.S. commodity trade," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 594-629, December.
    9. Nenavath Sreenu, 2024. "Exploring unbalanced impacts of exchange rate volatility on the shadow economy: new evidence from BRICS nations," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-26, August.
    10. Ma, Yiqun & Wang, Junhao, 2019. "Co-movement between oil, gas, coal, and iron ore prices, the Australian dollar, and the Chinese RMB exchange rates: A copula approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Viviane Naimy & Rim El Khoury & José-María Montero & Jana Souk, 2023. "Post-Brexit exchange rate volatility and its impact on UK exports to eurozone countries: A bounds testing approach," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 135-168, March.
    12. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto, 2019. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A New Evidence From Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, June.

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