lynx   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/123786.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Entrepreneurship and business cycles: Global evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Ho, Sin-Yu
  • Beri, Parfait
Abstract
This study examines the interplay between business cycles and entrepreneurship using data from 172 countries spanning 1990 to 2022. We employ the State Space model, panel vector autoregressive models, and the Granger non-causality tests and unravel three key insights. First, entrepreneurship exerts hysteresis, albeit with weak persistence. Second, entrepreneurship exhibits a countercyclical relationship with business cycles measured by both output and unemployment cycles, suggesting that high unemployment during global recessions may push individuals to start new businesses. These countercyclical results remain robust to structural breaks across different sub-sample periods. Third, entrepreneurship acts as a lagging indicator of business cycles, meaning changes in output and unemployment precede changes in entrepreneurial activity. Further analysis indicates that these findings are primarily driven by upper-middle and high-income countries. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of these results and outlining promising directions for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Ho, Sin-Yu & Beri, Parfait, 2025. "Entrepreneurship and business cycles: Global evidence," MPRA Paper 123786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:123786
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/123786/1/MPRA_paper_123786.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David B. Audretsch & Isabel Grilo & A. Roy Thurik (ed.), 2007. "Handbook of Research on Entrepreneurship Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3856.
    2. Thurik, A. Roy & Carree, Martin A. & van Stel, André & Audretsch, David B., 2008. "Does self-employment reduce unemployment?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 673-686, November.
    3. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-1395, November.
    4. Román, Concepción & Congregado, Emilio & Millán, José María, 2013. "Start-up incentives: Entrepreneurship policy or active labour market programme?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 151-175.
    5. Jeffrey Campbell, 1998. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 371-408, April.
    6. Roy Thurik, 2014. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-90, October.
    7. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    8. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    9. Rui Yang & Xin An & Yingwen Chen & Xiuli Yang, 2023. "The Knowledge Analysis of Panel Vector Autoregression: A Systematic Review," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    10. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    11. David B. Audretsch & Zoltan J. Acs, 2008. "New-Firm Startups, Technology, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy, chapter 16, pages 204-214, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Emilio Congregado & Antonio Golpe & Simon Parker, 2012. "The dynamics of entrepreneurship: hysteresis, business cycles and government policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1239-1261, December.
    13. M.A. Carree & A.R. Thurik, 2008. "The Lag Structure of the Impact of Business Ownership on Economic Performance in OECD Countries," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 101-110, January.
    14. Juan Sanchis Llopis & José María Millán & Rui Baptista & Andrew Burke & Simon Parker & Roy Thurik, 2015. "Good times, bad times: entrepreneurship and the business cycle," Post-Print hal-02013660, HAL.
    15. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    17. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    18. Michael Fritsch & Pamela Mueller, 2004. "Effects of New Business Formation on Regional Development over Time," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 961-975.
    19. Audretsch, David B. & Keilbach, Max, 2008. "Resolving the knowledge paradox: Knowledge-spillover entrepreneurship and economic growth," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1697-1705, December.
    20. André Stel & Martin Carree & Roy Thurik, 2005. "The Effect of Entrepreneurial Activity on National Economic Growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 311-321, February.
    21. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    22. Iversen, Jens & Jørgensen, Rasmus & Malchow-Møller, Nikolaj, 2007. "Defining and Measuring Entrepreneurship," Foundations and Trends(R) in Entrepreneurship, now publishers, vol. 4(1), pages 1-63, September.
    23. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1994. "Some evidence on hysteresis in unemployment rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 329-342, February.
    24. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    25. Rampini, Adriano A., 2004. "Entrepreneurial activity, risk, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 555-573, April.
    26. Michael Fritsch & Pamela Mueller, 2008. "The effect of new business formation on regional development over time: the case of Germany," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 15-29, January.
    27. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    28. Barton H. Hamilton, 2000. "Does Entrepreneurship Pay? An Empirical Analysis of the Returns to Self-Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 604-631, June.
    29. Patrick Francois & Huw Lloyd-Ellis, 2003. "Animal Spirits Through Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 530-550, June.
    30. Millán, José María & Congregado, Emilio & Román, Concepción, 2014. "Persistence in entrepreneurship and its implications for the European entrepreneurial promotion policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 83-106.
    31. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    32. Michael Fritsch & Pamela Mueller & Antje Weyh, 2005. "Direct and indirect effects of new business formation on regional employment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 545-548.
    33. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, May.
    34. Andrew Henley, 2004. "Self-Employment Status: The Role of State Dependence and Initial Circumstances," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 67-82, February.
    35. José Millán & Emilio Congregado & Concepción Román, 2012. "Determinants of self-employment survival in Europe," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 231-258, February.
    36. Congregado, Emilio & Golpe, Antonio A. & Carmona, Mónica, 2010. "Is it a good policy to promote self-employment for job creation? Evidence from Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 828-842, November.
    37. Martin Robson, 1998. "Self-employment in the UK regions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 313-322.
    38. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002. "The Returns to Entrepreneurial Investment: A Private Equity Premium Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 745-778, September.
    39. Simon C. Parker, 2012. "Theories Of Entrepreneurship, Innovation And The Business Cycle," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 377-394, July.
    40. Burke, Andrew & van Stel, André, 2014. "Entry and exit in disequilibrium," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 174-192.
    41. Ghatak, Maitreesh & Morelli, Massimo & Sjostrom, Tomas, 2007. "Entrepreneurial talent, occupational choice, and trickle up policies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 27-48, November.
    42. Simon C. Parker & Emilio Congregado & Antonio A. Golpe, 2012. "Testing for hysteresis in entrepreneurship in 23 OECD countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 61-66, January.
    43. Annie Tubadji & Peter Nijkamp & Vassilis Angelis, 2016. "Cultural hysteresis, entrepreneurship and economic crisisAn analysis of buffers to unemployment after economic shocks," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 9(1), pages 103-136.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Konon, Alexander & Fritsch, Michael & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2018. "Business cycles and start-ups across industries: An empirical analysis of German regions," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 742-761.
    2. Emilio Congregado & Antonio Golpe & Simon Parker, 2012. "The dynamics of entrepreneurship: hysteresis, business cycles and government policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1239-1261, December.
    3. Lechman, Ewa & Dominiak, Piotr, 2016. "Entrepreneurship vulnerability to business cycle. A new methodology for identification pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical patterns of entrepreneurial activity," MPRA Paper 68793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Klapper, Leora & Love, Inessa & Randall, Douglas, 2014. "New firm registration and the business cycle," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6775, The World Bank.
    5. Millán, José María & Congregado, Emilio & Román, Concepción, 2014. "Persistence in entrepreneurship and its implications for the European entrepreneurial promotion policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 83-106.
    6. Fritsch, Michael & Kritikos, Alexander S. & Pijnenburg, Katharina, 2013. "Business Cycles, Unemployment and Entrepreneurial Entry: Evidence from Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 7852, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Juan Sanchis Llopis & José María Millán & Rui Baptista & Andrew Burke & Simon Parker & Roy Thurik, 2015. "Good times, bad times: entrepreneurship and the business cycle," Post-Print hal-02013660, HAL.
    8. Roy Thurik, 2014. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-90, October.
    9. Gohmann, Stephan F. & Fernandez, Jose M., 2014. "Proprietorship and unemployment in the United States," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 289-309.
    10. Lukas Matejovsky & Sandeep Mohapatra & Bodo Steiner, 2014. "The Dynamic Effects of Entrepreneurship on Regional Economic Growth: Evidence from Canada," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 611-639, December.
    11. Román, Concepción & Congregado, Emilio & Millán, José María, 2013. "Start-up incentives: Entrepreneurship policy or active labour market programme?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 151-175.
    12. Mathilde Aubry & Jean Bonnet & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle: the “Schumpeter” effect versus the “refugee” effect—a French appraisal based on regional data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 23-55, January.
    13. Alexander Konon & Michael Fritsch & Alexander Kritikos, 2017. "Business Cycles and Start-ups across Industries: an Empirical Analysis for Germany," Jena Economics Research Papers 2017-013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    14. Thomas Neumann, 2021. "The impact of entrepreneurship on economic, social and environmental welfare and its determinants: a systematic review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 553-584, July.
    15. Marcus Dejardin, 2011. "Linking net entry to regional economic growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 443-460, May.
    16. Ho, Sin Yu & Beri, Parfait Bihkongnyuy, 2024. "The impact of SME sector on economic growth in Africa," MPRA Paper 122552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Mabel Pisá-Bó & José Fernando López-Muñoz & Josefina Novejarque-Civera, 2021. "The ever-changing socioeconomic conditions for entrepreneurship," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 1335-1355, September.
    18. Tajaddini, Reza & Gholipour, Hassan F., 2021. "Economic uncertainty and business formation: A cross-country analysis," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    19. Niklas Elert, 2014. "What determines entry? Evidence from Sweden," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(1), pages 55-92, August.
    20. Sotirakopoulos, Panagiotis & Mount, Matthew P. & Guven, Cahit & Ulker, Aydogan & Graham, Carol, 2023. "A tale of two life stages: The imprinting effect of macroeconomic contractions on later life entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 38(4).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; entrepreneurship; self-employment; unemployment; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:123786. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    Лучший частный хостинг