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Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic

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  • Thomas J. Sargent
  • Neil Wallace
Abstract
In his presidential address to the American Economic Association (AEA), Milton Friedman (1968) warned not to expect too much from monetary policy. In particular, Friedman argued that monetary policy could not permanently influence the levels of real output, unemployment, or real rates of return on securities. However, Friedman did assert that a monetary authority could exert substantial control over the inflation rate, especially in the long run. The purpose of this paper is to argue that, even in an economy that satisfies monetarist assumptions, if monetary policy is interpreted as open market operations, then Friedman’s list of the things that monetary policy cannot permanently control may have to be expanded to include inflation.
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Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 5(Fall).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1981:i:fall:n:v.5no.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McCallum, Bennett T., 1978. "On macroeconomic instability from a monetarist policy rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 121-124.
    2. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
    3. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-1048, November.
    4. Scarth, William M., 1980. "Rational expectations and the instability of bond-financing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 321-327.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jalali Naini, Ahmad Reza & Naderian, Mohammad Amin, 2017. "Oil Price Cycles, Fiscal Dominance and Counter-cyclical Monetary Policy in Iran," MPRA Paper 84480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    3. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2019. "Behavioral Monetary Policymaking: Economics, Political Economy and Psychology," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Behavioral Finance The Coming of Age, chapter 9, pages 285-329, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 81646, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2017.
    5. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2025. "The economics of helicopter money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(1), pages 81-92.
    7. R. Sean Craig, 1991. "EMS interest rate differentials and fiscal policy: a model with an empirical application to Italy," International Finance Discussion Papers 405, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Peter J. Stemp & William M. Scarth, "undated". "Zero Inflation Targets: Central Bank Commitment and Fiscal Policy Outcomes," Computing in Economics and Finance 1996 _055, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Schaling, E., 1993. "On the economic independence of the central bank and the persistence of inflation (Second revision)," Discussion Paper 1993-36, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.
    11. Lim Chia Yien & Hussin Abdullah & Muhammad Azam, 2017. "Granger Causality Analysis between Inflation, Debt and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Malaysia," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 189-196, January.
    12. Buiter, Willem H., 1986. "Fiscal Prerequisites for a Viable Managed Exchange Rate Regime: A Non-Technical Eclectic Introduction," CEPR Discussion Papers 129, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Schaling, E., 1993. "On the economic independence of the central bank and the persistence of inflation (Second revision)," Other publications TiSEM 386449bd-a500-437c-a9f8-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Kia, Amir & Jafari, Mahboubeh, 2020. "Forward-looking agents and inflation in an oil-producing country: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    15. Pinto, Brian, 1988. "Black markets for foreign exchange, real exchange rates, and inflation : overnight versus gradual reform in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 84, The World Bank.
    16. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Mindy Xiaolan & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2019. "Government Risk Premium Puzzle," 2019 Meeting Papers 437, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "A quarter of a century of fiscal responsibility: The origins and evolution of fiscal policy governance and institutional arrangements in New Zealand, 1994 to 2018," Working Paper Series 7693, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    18. Tomás Marinozzi & Mariano Fernández, 2020. "Una breve revisón sobre la literatura de las metas de inflación," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 755, Universidad del CEMA.
    19. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "A quarter of a century of fiscal responsibility: The origins and evolution of fiscal policy governance and institutional arrangements in New Zealand, 1994 to 2018," Working Paper Series 20848, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

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