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The memory of science: Inflation, myopia, and the knowledge network

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  • Pan, Raj K.
  • Petersen, Alexander M.
  • Pammolli, Fabio
  • Fortunato, Santo
Abstract
Scientific production is steadily growing, exhibiting 4% annual growth in publications and 1.8% annual growth in the number of references per publication, together producing a 12-year doubling period in the total supply of references, i.e. links in the science citation network. This growth has far-reaching implications for how academic knowledge is connected, accessed and evaluated. Against this background, we analyzed a citation network comprised of 837 million references produced by 32.6 million publications over the period 1965–2012, allowing for a detailed analysis of the ‘attention economy’ in science. Our results show how growth relates to ‘citation inflation’, increased connectivity in the citation network resulting from decreased levels of uncitedness, and a narrowing range of attention – as both very classic and very recent literature are being cited increasingly less. The decreasing attention to recent literature published within the last 6 years suggests that science has become stifled by a publication deluge destabilizing the balance between production and consumption. To better understand these patterns together, we developed a generative model of the citation network, featuring exponential growth, the redirection of scientific attention via publications’ reference lists, and the crowding out of old literature by the new. We validate our model against several empirical benchmarks, and then use perturbation analysis to measure the impact of shifts in citing behavior on the synthetic system's properties, thereby providing insights into the functionality of the science citation network as an infrastructure supporting the memory of science.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, Raj K. & Petersen, Alexander M. & Pammolli, Fabio & Fortunato, Santo, 2018. "The memory of science: Inflation, myopia, and the knowledge network," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 656-678.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:infome:v:12:y:2018:i:3:p:656-678
    DOI: 10.1016/j.joi.2018.06.005
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    2. Anthony G. Stacey, 2021. "Ages of cited references and growth of scientific knowledge: an explication of the gamma distribution in business and management disciplines," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(1), pages 619-640, January.
    3. Katchanov, Yurij L. & Markova, Yulia V. & Shmatko, Natalia A., 2023. "Uncited papers in the structure of scientific communication," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2).
    4. Edré Moreira & Wagner Meira & Marcos André Gonçalves & Alberto H. F. Laender, 2023. "The rise of hyperprolific authors in computer science: characterization and implications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(5), pages 2945-2974, May.
    5. Petersen, Alexander M. & Pan, Raj K. & Pammolli, Fabio & Fortunato, Santo, 2019. "Methods to account for citation inflation in research evaluation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(7), pages 1855-1865.
    6. Bodil Hoffmeyer & Siv Fonnes & Kristoffer Andresen & Jacob Rosenberg, 2023. "Use of inactive Cochrane reviews in academia: A citation analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(5), pages 2923-2934, May.
    7. Petersen, Alexander M., 2019. "Megajournal mismanagement: Manuscript decision bias and anomalous editor activity at PLOS ONE," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4).
    8. Gerson Pech & Catarina Delgado, 2020. "Percentile and stochastic-based approach to the comparison of the number of citations of articles indexed in different bibliographic databases," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 123(1), pages 223-252, April.
    9. Chakresh Kumar Singh & Demival Vasques Filho & Shivakumar Jolad & Dion R. J. O’Neale, 2020. "Evolution of interdependent co-authorship and citation networks," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(1), pages 385-404, October.
    10. Evangelos Ioannidis & Nikos Varsakelis & Ioannis Antoniou, 2021. "Intelligent Agents in Co-Evolving Knowledge Networks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Daniel Bordonaba-Bosque & María A. González-Álvarez & Pedro C. Marijuán & Jorge Navarro, 2025. "Economic Change and Cultural Evolution: The Ultimate Influence of Human Cognitive Limitations," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, January.
    12. Lu Liu & Benjamin F. Jones & Brian Uzzi & Dashun Wang, 2023. "Data, measurement and empirical methods in the science of science," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 1046-1058, July.
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    14. Petersen, Alexander Michael & Arroyave, Felber J. & Pammolli, Fabio, 2025. "The disruption index suffers from citation inflation: Re-analysis of temporal CD trend and relationship with team size reveal discrepancies," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1).
    15. Brito, Ana C.M. & Silva, Filipi N. & Amancio, Diego R., 2021. "Associations between author-level metrics in subsequent time periods," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4).
    16. Jeppe Nicolaisen & Tove Faber Frandsen, 2021. "Number of references: a large-scale study of interval ratios," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(1), pages 259-285, January.

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