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Trade networks and economic fluctuations in Asian countries

Author

Listed:
  • Giudici, Paolo
  • Huang, Bihong
  • Spelta, Alessandro
Abstract
The paper presents a new methodology, based on tensor decomposition, to map dynamic trade networks and to assess its strength in forecasting economic fluctuations at different periods of time in Asia. Using the monthly merchandise import and export data across 33 Asian economies, together with the US, EU and UK, we detect the community structure of the evolving network and we identify clusters and central nodes inside each of them. Our findings show that data are well represented by two communities, in which People's Republic of China and Japan play the major role. We then analyze the synchronisation between GDP growth and trade. Furthermore we apply our model to the prediction of economic fluctuations. Our findings show that the model leads to an increase in predictive accuracy, as higher order interactions between countries are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Giudici, Paolo & Huang, Bihong & Spelta, Alessandro, 2019. "Trade networks and economic fluctuations in Asian countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:43:y:2019:i:2:2
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2019.100695
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    3. Ma, Xinxin & Zong, Xiangyu & Chen, Ximing, 2022. "Economic fitness and economy growth potentiality: Evidence from BRICS and OECD countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    4. Agus Dwi Nugroho & Priya Rani Bhagat & Robert Magda & Zoltan Lakner, 2021. "The impacts of economic globalization on agricultural value added in developing countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-23, November.
    5. N. Wei & W. -J. Xie & W. -X. Zhou, 2021. "Robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks to economies," Papers 2101.10679, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    6. Wen-Jie Xie & Na Wei & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2020. "Evolving efficiency and robustness of global oil trade networks," Papers 2004.05325, arXiv.org.
    7. Di, Jinghan & Wen, Zongguo & Jiang, Meihui & Miatto, Alessio, 2022. "Patterns and features of embodied environmental flow networks in the international trade of metal resources: A study of aluminum," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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