lynx   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v71y2024ics0275531924002782.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mutual fund flows and returns dynamics: Investor preferences and performance persistence

Author

Listed:
  • Galloppo, Giuseppe
  • Guida, Roberto
  • Paimanova, Viktoriia
Abstract
We investigate the flow-performance relationship by the lens of the investor preferences, applying a mutual fund dataset with an investment objective focused over European and US area. Incorporating a novel measure of asset managers’ market timing ability, we analyze the role played by performance persistence in mutual fund investing decisions by focusing on top performers in a short-time window. Our empirical results showed that preferences strongly influence the returns-flow dynamics when accounting for the asset type, geographical investment focus, and management style tilt, shedding new light on the behavior of certain clustered groups of investors. Furthermore, we find a long-run information effect as a proxy of a positive association between past returns and flows leading by the smart money effect. Surprisingly, we also observe irrational investors’ behavior when chasing for negative performers, likely due to a herding effect or flow persistent hypothesis as a result of the mechanisms of market allocation efficiency, which is likely to be affected by a slowdown functioning in the short-term phase. Robustness analyses confirm overall results.

Suggested Citation

  • Galloppo, Giuseppe & Guida, Roberto & Paimanova, Viktoriia, 2024. "Mutual fund flows and returns dynamics: Investor preferences and performance persistence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:71:y:2024:i:c:s0275531924002782
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102485
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531924002782
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102485?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scheld, Dominik & Stolper, Oscar, 2023. "Leveling the playing field? The effect of disclosing fund manager activeness to individual investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Klaas P. Baks & Andrew Metrick & Jessica Wachter, 2001. "Should Investors Avoid All Actively Managed Mutual Funds? A Study in Bayesian Performance Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 45-85, February.
    3. Frey, Stefan & Herbst, Patrick & Walter, Andreas, 2014. "Measuring mutual fund herding – A structural approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 219-239.
    4. Cagnazzo, Alberto, 2022. "Market-timing performance of mutual fund investors in Emerging Markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 378-394.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2605-2622 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Akbas, Ferhat & Armstrong, Will J. & Sorescu, Sorin & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2015. "Smart money, dumb money, and capital market anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 355-382.
    7. Cronqvist, Henrik & Siegel, Stephan & Yu, Frank, 2015. "Value versus growth investing: Why do different investors have different styles?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 333-349.
    8. Matallín-Sáez, Juan Carlos & Soler-Domínguez, Amparo & Tortosa-Ausina, Emili, 2016. "On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 192-231.
    9. Song Zhang & Liang Han & Konstantinos Kallias & Antonios Kallias, 2022. "Bank switching of US small businesses: new methods and evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1573-1616, May.
    10. Lee, Jaeram & Jeon, Hyunglae & Kang, Jangkoo & Lee, Changjun, 2020. "Do actively managed mutual funds exploit stock market mispricing?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    11. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2009. "How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3329-3365, September.
    12. Wattanatorn, Woraphon & Padungsaksawasdi, Chaiyuth, 2020. "Coskewness timing ability in the mutual fund industry," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    13. George Cashman & Federico Nardari & Daniel Deli & Sriram Villupuram, 2014. "Investor behavior in the mutual fund industry: evidence from gross flows," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 541-567, October.
    14. Manuel Ammann & Christopher Bauer & Sebastian Fischer & Philipp Müller, 2019. "The impact of the Morningstar Sustainability Rating on mutual fund flows," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(3), pages 520-553, June.
    15. Hossain, Md. Imran & Duong, Huu Nhan & Al Mamun, Md & Docherty, Paul, 2023. "Collateral shocks and M&A decisions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Philippe Bacchetta & Simon Tièche & Eric van & Ralph Koijen, 2023. "International Portfolio Choice with Frictions: Evidence from Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(10), pages 4233-4270.
    17. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    18. Sayili, Koray & Yilmaz, Gokhan & Dyer, Douglas & Küllü, A. Melih, 2017. "Style investing and firm innovation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 17-29.
    19. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Lazrak, Skander & Liao, Yusui & Welch, Robert, 2018. "Performance of fixed-income mutual funds with regime-switching models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 217-231.
    20. Wang, Albert Y. & Young, Michael, 2020. "Terrorist attacks and investor risk preference: Evidence from mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 491-514.
    21. Dong Lou, 2012. "A Flow-Based Explanation for Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3457-3489.
    22. Dominik M. Rösch & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Mathijs A. van Dijk, 2017. "The Dynamics of Market Efficiency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 1151-1187.
    23. Aneel Keswani & David Stolin, 2008. "Which Money Is Smart? Mutual Fund Buys and Sells of Individual and Institutional Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 85-118, February.
    24. Berk, Jonathan B. & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2016. "Assessing asset pricing models using revealed preference," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-23.
    25. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Kandel, Shmuel & Wohl, Avi, 2012. "Measuring investor sentiment with mutual fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 363-382.
    26. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Thuraisamy, Kannan S. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2017. "How do bond, equity and commodity cycles interact?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 151-156.
    27. Miguel A. Ferreira & Aneel Keswani & António F. Miguel & Sofia B. Ramos, 2013. "The Determinants of Mutual Fund Performance: A Cross-Country Study," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 483-525.
    28. Patel, Saurin & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2017. "To Group or Not to Group? Evidence from Mutual Fund Databases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 1989-2021, October.
    29. Jun, Xiao & Li, Mingsheng & Shi, Jing, 2014. "Volatile market condition and investor clientele effects on mutual fund flow performance relationship," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 310-334.
    30. Yiming Ma & Kairong Xiao & Yao Zeng, 2022. "Mutual Fund Liquidity Transformation and Reverse Flight to Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4674-4711.
    31. Ryan Bubb & Emiliano M Catan, 2022. "The Party Structure of Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(6), pages 2839-2878.
    32. George D. Cashman & Daniel N. Deli & Federico Nardari & Sriram Villupuram, 2012. "Investors Do Respond to Poor Mutual Fund Performance: Evidence from Inflows and Outflows," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 719-739, November.
    33. Wahal, Sunil & Yavuz, M. Deniz, 2013. "Style investing, comovement and return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 136-154.
    34. Jeon, Hyunglae & Kang, Jangkoo & Lee, Changjun, 2017. "Precision about manager skill, mutual fund flows, and performance persistence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-237.
    35. Che, Limei, 2018. "Investor types and stock return volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 139-161.
    36. Brad M. Barber & Xing Huang & Terrance Odean, 2016. "Which Factors Matter to Investors? Evidence from Mutual Fund Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2600-2642.
    37. Oh, Natalie Y. & Parwada, Jerry T., 2007. "Relations between mutual fund flows and stock market returns in Korea," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 140-151, April.
    38. Cohn, Jonathan B. & Liu, Zack & Wardlaw, Malcolm I., 2022. "Count (and count-like) data in finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 529-551.
    39. Spiegel, Matthew & Zhang, Hong, 2013. "Mutual fund risk and market share-adjusted fund flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 506-528.
    40. Malcolm Wardlaw, 2020. "Measuring Mutual Fund Flow Pressure as Shock to Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 3221-3243, December.
    41. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Keswani, Aneel & Miguel, Antonio F. & Ramos, Sofia B., 2012. "The flow-performance relationship around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1759-1780.
    42. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    43. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & K.P, Prabheesh, 2014. "Stock returns, mutual fund flows and spillover shocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 146-162.
    44. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    45. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2011. "Fixed-income fund performance: Role of luck and ability in tail membership," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 379-392, June.
    46. Jennifer Huang & Kelsey D. Wei & Hong Yan, 2007. "Participation Costs and the Sensitivity of Fund Flows to Past Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1273-1311, June.
    47. Chen, Yong & Ferson, Wayne & Peters, Helen, 2010. "Measuring the timing ability and performance of bond mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 72-89, October.
    48. Ratanabanchuen, Roongkiat & Saengchote, Kanis, 2020. "Institutional capital allocation and equity returns: Evidence from Thai mutual funds’ holdings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    49. Chou, Pin-Huang & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2019. "Asset growth, style investing, and momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 108-124.
    50. Jiang, George J. & Yuksel, H. Zafer, 2017. "What drives the “Smart-Money” effect? Evidence from investors’ money flow to mutual fund classes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 39-58.
    51. Stark, Jeffrey R., 2019. "Decomposing mutual fund alpha into security selection and security weighting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 76-91.
    52. Huij, Joop & Derwall, Jeroen, 2011. "Global equity fund performance, portfolio concentration, and the fundamental law of active management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 155-165, January.
    53. Cujean, Julien, 2020. "Idea sharing and the performance of mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 88-119.
    54. Hammouda, Amira & Saeed, Asif & Vidal, Marta & Vidal-García, Javier, 2023. "On the short-term persistence of mutual fund performance in Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    55. Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche & Niall O'Sullivan, 2010. "Mutual Fund Performance: Measurement and Evidence," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 95-187, May.
    56. Wolfgang Bessler & David Blake & Peter Lückoff & Ian Tonks, 2018. "Fund Flows, Manager Changes, and Performance Persistence [Does motivation matter when assessing trade performance? An analysis of mutual funds]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(5), pages 1911-1947.
    57. Rakowski, David & Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Endogeneity in the mutual fund flow–performance relationship: An instrumental variables solution," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 247-271.
    58. Clare, Andrew & O'Sullivan, Niall & Sherman, Meadhbh & Zhu, Sheng, 2019. "The performance of US bond mutual funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-8.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rakowski, David & Yamani, Ehab, 2021. "Endogeneity in the mutual fund flow–performance relationship: An instrumental variables solution," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 247-271.
    2. Klinkowska, Olga & Zhao, Yuan, 2023. "Fund flows and performance: New evidence from retail and institutional SRI mutual funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Yamani, Ehab, 2023. "The informational role of fund flow in the profitable predictability of mutual funds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Chang, Xiaochen & Guo, Songlin & Huang, Junkai, 2022. "Kidnapped mutual funds: Irrational preference of naive investors and fund incentive distortion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Florian Röder & Andreas Walter, 2019. "What Drives Investment Flows Into Social Trading Portfolios?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 383-411, July.
    6. Philippe van der Beck & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Dario Villamaina, 2024. "Ponzi Funds," Papers 2405.12768, arXiv.org.
    7. Keith Cuthbertson & Dirk Nitzsche & Niall O’Sullivan, 2023. "UK mutual funds: performance persistence and portfolio size," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 284-298, July.
    8. George J. Jiang & H. Zafer Yüksel, 2019. "Sentimental mutual fund flows," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 709-738, November.
    9. Jin, Liang & Taffler, Richard & Eshraghi, Arman & Tosun, Onur Kemal, 2020. "Fund manager conviction and investment performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Victor DeMiguel & Javier Gil-Bazo & Francisco J. Nogales & André A. P. Santos, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Help to Select Portfolios of Mutual Funds?," Working Papers 1245, Barcelona School of Economics.
    11. Juan Carlos Matallín-Sáez & Amparo Soler-Domínguez & Diego Víctor Mingo-López, 2021. "On management risk and price in the mutual fund industry: style and performance distribution analysis," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 150-171, June.
    12. Giuseppe Galloppo, 2021. "Size," Springer Books, in: Asset Allocation Strategies for Mutual Funds, chapter 0, pages 151-190, Springer.
    13. Kaniel, Ron & Lin, Zihan & Pelger, Markus & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2023. "Machine-learning the skill of mutual fund managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 94-138.
    14. Emmanuel Mamatzakis & Mike Tsionas, 2018. "A Bayesian dynamic model to test persistence in funds' performance," Working Paper series 18-23, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    15. Omori, Kozo & Kitamura, Tomoki, 2023. "Investor response to Morningstar's ratings, category information, and alpha in the Japanese mutual fund market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Jiang, George J. & Yuksel, H. Zafer, 2017. "What drives the “Smart-Money” effect? Evidence from investors’ money flow to mutual fund classes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 39-58.
    17. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2016. "A review of behavioural and management effects in mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-176.
    18. Li, Zhiyong & Rao, Xiao, 2023. "Exploring the zoo of predictors for mutual fund performance in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Scheld, Dominik & Stolper, Oscar, 2023. "Leveling the playing field? The effect of disclosing fund manager activeness to individual investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    20. DeMiguel, Victor & Gil-Bazo, Javier & Nogales, Francisco J. & Santos, André A.P., 2023. "Machine learning and fund characteristics help to select mutual funds with positive alpha," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual fund multifactor model; Market persistence; Investor preferences; Time dependency effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:71:y:2024:i:c:s0275531924002782. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    Лучший частный хостинг