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Dependence of the “Fragile Five” and “Troubled Ten” emerging market financial systems on US monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainty

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  • Chadwick, Meltem Gulenay
Abstract
In this study, I measure the dependence of the financial markets of certain emerging market countries on US monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainty. To do so, I apply the time-varying copula models proposed by Patton (2006). I am particularly interested in the differences between these markets’ dependence on US monetary policy, i.e. which of the countries’ financial markets tend to comove in response to quantitative easing or quantitative tightening policies. The results are important because financial risks via contagion need monitoring, especially since the 2008 subprime crisis, although emerging markets were affected less than advanced economies. My analysis point to a significant difference between these emerging markets regarding their dependence on US monetary policy. The correlation persistence parameters, which determine the evolution of time-varying dependence, show that emerging countries, especially in Latin America, are strongly dependent on both US monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainty. It is therefore interesting to see that the results reveal increasing dependence during the subprime crisis but a decrease after 2009. I conclude that increasing dependence during stress periods should be considered as a risk factor for policymakers who closely monitor financial markets in emerging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Chadwick, Meltem Gulenay, 2019. "Dependence of the “Fragile Five” and “Troubled Ten” emerging market financial systems on US monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 251-268.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:49:y:2019:i:c:p:251-268
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.04.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    3. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    4. Mandelbrot, Benoit B, 1972. "Correction of an Error in "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices" (1963)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(4), pages 542-543, October.
    5. A. Sancetta & Satchell, S.E., 2001. "Bernstein Approximations to the Copula Function and Portfolio Optimization," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0105, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    7. Sancetta, Alessio & Satchell, Stephen, 2004. "The Bernstein Copula And Its Applications To Modeling And Approximations Of Multivariate Distributions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 535-562, June.
    8. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Zhang, Jie & Zhong, Rui, 2017. "Cross-financial-market correlations and quantitative easing," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 13-21.
    9. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Threshold cointegration, nonlinearity, and frequency domain causality relationship between stock price and Turkish Lira," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Assoumou-Ella, Giscard & Bastidon, Cécile & Bonijoly, Bastien, 2022. "Fed tapering announcements: Impact on Middle Eastern and African financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Pham, Son Duy & Li, Xiao-Ming & Do, Hung Xuan, 2024. "Does the U.S. export inflation? Evidence from the dynamic inflation spillover between the U.S. and EAGLEs," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Mustafa Okur & Ali Köse & Özgür Akpinar, 2021. "The Soundness of Financial Institutions In The Fragile Five Countries," International Journal of Business Research and Management (IJBRM), Computer Science Journals (CSC Journals), vol. 12(3), pages 89-102, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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