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ifo Konjunkturprognose 2004: Erholung hat begonnen

Author

Listed:
  • Gebhard Flaig
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Wolfgang Meister
  • Oscar-Erich Kuntze
  • Andrea Gebauer
  • Erich Langmantel
  • Martin Meurers
  • Monika Ruschinski
  • Timo Wollmershäuser
Abstract
Am 19. Dezember stellte das ifo Institut im Rahmen seines vorweihnachtlichen Pressegesprächs seine Prognose für das Jahr 2004 vor. Die konjunkturellen Aussichten der Bundesrepublik waren schon lange nicht mehr so günstig wie jetzt. Nach der Konjunkturprognose des ifo Instituts wird das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahresdurchschnitt 2004 um 1,8% steigen. Davon entfallen 0,2 Prozentpunkte auf das partielle Vorziehen der dritten Stufe der Steuerreform 2000, das gegenüber dem ursprünglichen Plan in seiner konjunkturellen Wirkung kaum abgeschwächt wurde, weil etwa 8 Mrd. von 9 Mrd. € nicht durch Ausgabenkürzungen oder andere Steuererhöhungen gegenfinanziert werden sollen. Etwa 0,5 Prozentpunkte des BIP-Wachstums sind darauf zurückzuführen, dass es im Jahr 2004 im Durchschnitt der Bundesländer 3,3 Arbeitstage mehr als im Jahr 2003 gibt. Für den Arbeitsmarkt aber ist noch nicht einmal im sich bessernden Konjunkturverlauf eine rasche Belebung zu erwarten. Die Lage bleibt prekär. Angesichts der bis zuletzt sinkenden Anzahl offener Stellen wird die Erwerbstätigkeit im Jahr 2004 zunächst weiter sinken. Zwar stützt die Arbeitsmarktpolitik durch die Förderung von Existenzgründungen (Ich-AG) und den Aufbau der Personal-Service-Agenturen die Beschäftigung. Ferner werden durch die Regelungen zu Mini- und Midi-Jobs auch Personen, die nicht berechtigt sind, Lohnersatzeinkommen zu beziehen, unterstützt. Dennoch ist erst etwa ab Mitte 2004, wenn sich die Konjunkturerholung gefestigt hat, mit einem leichten Anstieg der saisonbereinigten Erwerbstätigenzahlen zu rechnen. Das wird nicht verhindern können, dass im Jahresdurchschnitt ein nochmaliger Beschäftigungsabbau in der Größenordnung von 170 000 Personen zu verzeichnen sein wird. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2004 ist mit einer Arbeitslosenzahl von 4,3 Millionen zu rechnen. Dies entspricht einer Arbeitslosenquote von 10,2%. Bei der Finanzlage der öffentlichen Hand ist keine nachhaltige Besserung in Sicht.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister & Oscar-Erich Kuntze & Andrea Gebauer & Erich Langmantel & Martin Meurers & Monika Ruschinski & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2003. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2004: Erholung hat begonnen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(24), pages 16-42, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:24:p:16-42
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2003_24_4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Flaig Gebhard & Rottmann Horst, 2001. "Input Demand and the Shortand Long-Run Employment Thresholds: An Empirical Analysis for the German Manufacturing Sector," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 367-384, December.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "The Deutschmark in Eastern Europe, Black Money and the Euro: On the Size of the Effect," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(03), pages 35-40, February.
    3. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo.
    5. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling? An Investigation into the Determinants of the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 8352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Volker Rußig, 2004. "Vorsichtig aufkeimender Optimismus in Europas Bauwirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(06), pages 38-45, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturprognose; Weltkonjunktur; Weltwirtschaft; Wirtschaftslage; Wirtschaftswachstum; Geschäftsklima; Branche; Beschäftigung; Arbeitsmarkt; Sozialprodukt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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