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Agriculture after a year with COVID‐19: Any long‐term implications for international trade policy?

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  • William A. Kerr
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) initiated shocks to the Canadian agri‐food industry moving the sector away from its prepandemic equilibrium. Disequilibrium can mean, postshock, that sectors follow different paths of adjustment. The public and politicians appear to desire that economic activity returns to prepandemic norms—but this is far from assured. In the case of the Canadian agri‐food industry, the postshock path of adjustment appears to be returning to the preshock equilibrium, or near to it. This provides a familiar and stable anchor for those whose lives are otherwise considerably disrupted by the pandemic. The multilateral international trade system has long been in need of reform—reforms that would benefit Canada's agri‐food exporting sector. The pandemic has raised trade issues that require urgent action and some countries see this as an opportunity for reform. Canada has been at the forefront of this activity through the fostering, hosting, and chairing of the Ottawa Group of 13 World Trade Organization members that have been charged with bringing forward proposals for reform that will break the log jam in multilateral negotiations. The work of the Ottawa Group is examined and the likelihood of the initiative succeeding assessed. COVID‐19 a provoqué des chocs dans l'industrie agroalimentaire canadienne, éloignant le secteur de son équilibre pré‐pandémique. Le déséquilibre peut signifier, après le choc, que les secteurs suivent des voies d'ajustement différentes. Le public et les politiciens semblent souhaiter que l'activité économique revienne aux normes d'avant la pandémie ‐ mais cela est loin d'être assuré. Dans le cas de l'industrie agroalimentaire canadienne, la trajectoire d'ajustement post‐choc semble revenir à l'équilibre d'avant le choc, ou presque. Cela fournit un point d'ancrage familier et stable pour ceux dont la vie a été autrement considérablement perturbée par la pandémie. Le système commercial international multilatéral a depuis longtemps besoin d'une réforme ‐ des réformes qui profiteraient au secteur canadien des exportations agroalimentaires. La pandémie a soulevé des problèmes commerciaux qui nécessitent une action urgente et certains pays y voient une opportunité de réforme. Le Canada a été à l'avant‐garde de cette activité en encourageant, en accueillant et en présidant le Groupe d'Ottawa de treize Membres de l'OMC qui ont été chargés de présenter des propositions de réforme qui permettront de briser le blocage des négociations multilatérales. Le travail du Groupe d'Ottawa est examiné et la probabilité de réussite de l'initiative est évaluée.

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Kerr, 2021. "Agriculture after a year with COVID‐19: Any long‐term implications for international trade policy?," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 261-267, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:69:y:2021:i:2:p:261-267
    DOI: 10.1111/cjag.12274
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kerr, William A., 2016. "Disequilibrium, Trade and the Consequenses of Adjustment," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 17(2), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Ryan Cardwell & William A. Kerr, 2021. "President Biden's international trade agenda: Implications for the Canadian agrifood sector," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(1), pages 19-25, March.
    3. Kerr, William A., 2016. "The WTO and Food Aid: Food Security and Surplus Disposal in the 2015 Ministerial Decision on Export Competition," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 17(01), pages 1-15.
    4. Kerr, William A., 2002. "A Club No More - The WTO after Doha," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 3(01), pages 1-9.
    5. May T. Yeung & William A. Kerr, 2021. "Canadian Agri-Food Export Opportunities in a Covid-19 World," SPP Briefing Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 14(5), February.
    6. Lauren Chenarides & Carola Grebitus & Jayson L. Lusk & Iryna Printezis, 2021. "Food consumption behavior during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 44-81, January.
    7. Kerr, William A., 2014. "Bali High or Bali Low: Is a Piecemeal Approach the Way Forward for the WTO?," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 15(01), pages 1-11, February.
    8. Ryan Cardwell & William A. Kerr, 2014. "Can Export Restrictions be Disciplined Through the World Trade Organisation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1186-1196, August.
    9. Cardwell, Ryan T. & Kerr, William A., 2013. "Reforming WTO Rules on Export Restrictions - Is There Any Point?," Commissioned Papers 158894, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    10. Kerr, William A., 2018. "Eliminating the Constraints on Trade Policy – The Strategy that Underpins US Negotiations in the Trump Administration," Estey Centre Journal of International Law and Trade Policy, Estey Centre for Law and Economics in International Trade, vol. 19(2), December.
    11. William A. Kerr & James D. Gaisford (ed.), 2007. "Handbook on International Trade Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3521, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan P. Ker & Ryan Cardwell, 2021. "Introduction to the special issue on COVID‐19 and the Canadian agriculture and food sectors: Thoughts one year into the pandemic," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 155-159, June.
    2. Alan P. Ker & Scott Biden, 2021. "Risk management in Canada's agricultural sector in light of COVID‐19: Considerations one year later," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(2), pages 299-305, June.
    3. Xi He, 2022. "Political and economic determinants of export restrictions in the agricultural and food sector," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(3), pages 439-453, May.

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