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Stretching the Duck: How Rising Temperatures will Change the Level and Shape of Future Electricity Consumption

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  • Nicholas Rivers and Blake Shaffer
Abstract
This paper examines how rising temperatures due to climate change will affect electricity consumption patterns through mid- and end-century. We extend recent literature in two important ways. First, we directly incorporate adaptation in the form of increased air conditioner penetration, resulting in heightened responsiveness to hot temperatures. Second, we go beyond average effects to consider how higher temperatures will change the intraday and seasonal shape of consumption. This is found to be of greater importance in colder countries, where the average effect is dampened by reductions in heating demand from warmer winters. Seasonal peaks are projected to shift from winter to summer and the diurnal range of hourly consumption expands, exacerbating an increasing need for flexibility coming from the supply side due to a growing share of renewable energy.

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  • Nicholas Rivers and Blake Shaffer, 2020. "Stretching the Duck: How Rising Temperatures will Change the Level and Shape of Future Electricity Consumption," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5), pages 55-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej41-5-shaffer
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maximilian Auffhammer, 2018. "Climate Adaptive Response Estimation: Short And Long Run Impacts Of Climate Change On Residential Electricity and Natural Gas Consumption Using Big Data," NBER Working Papers 24397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    6. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Golub & Kristina Govorukha & Philip Mayer & Dirk Rübbelke, 2022. "Climate Change and the Vulnerability of Germany’s Power Sector to Heat and Drought," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(3), pages 157-184, May.
    2. Zhang, Guoxing & Shen, Lin & Su, Bin, 2023. "Temperature change and daily urban-rural residential electricity consumption in northwestern China: Responsiveness and inequality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Ekaterina Alekhanova, 2023. "Summertime Sadness: Time Sensitivity of Electricity Savings from a Behavioral Nudge," Carleton Economic Papers 23-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 11 Nov 2023.
    4. Jones, Andrew & Nock, Destenie & Samaras, Constantine & Qiu, Yueming (Lucy) & Xing, Bo, 2023. "Climate change impacts on future residential electricity consumption and energy burden: A case study in Phoenix, Arizona," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    5. Chen, Haitao & Zhang, Bin & Wang, Zhaohua, 2022. "Hidden inequality in household electricity consumption: Measurement and determinants based on large-scale smart meter data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. David P. Brown & Derek E. H. Olmstead & Blake Shaffer, 2024. "Electricity Market Design with Increasing Renewable Generation: Lessons From Alberta," Working Papers 2024-3, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    7. Wei, Kai & Lin, Boqiang, 2025. "Do extreme temperatures exacerbate residential energy expenses burden in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Antweiler, Werner & Muesgens, Felix, 2025. "The new merit order: The viability of energy-only electricity markets with only intermittent renewable energy sources and grid-scale storage," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

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