lynx   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/zbw/espost/307974.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Episodes of liberalization in autocracies: a new approach to quantitatively studying democratization

Author

Listed:
  • Wilson, Matthew C.
  • Medzihorsky, Juraj
  • Maerz, Seraphine F.
  • Lindenfors, Patrik
  • Edgell, Amanda B.
  • Boese, Vanessa A.
  • Lindberg, Staffan I.
Abstract
This paper introduces a new approach to the quantitative study of democratization. Building on the comparative case-study and large-N literature, it outlines an episode approach that identifies the discrete beginning of a period of political liberalization, traces its progression, and classifies episodes as successful versus different types of failing outcomes, thus avoiding potentially fallacious assumptions of unit homogeneity. We provide a description and analysis of all 383 liberalization episodes from 1900 to 2019, offering new insights on democratic “waves”. We also demonstrate the value of this approach by showing that while several established covariates are valuable for predicting the ultimate outcomes, none explain the onset of a period of liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilson, Matthew C. & Medzihorsky, Juraj & Maerz, Seraphine F. & Lindenfors, Patrik & Edgell, Amanda B. & Boese, Vanessa A. & Lindberg, Staffan I., 2023. "Episodes of liberalization in autocracies: a new approach to quantitatively studying democratization," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(3), pages 501-520.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:307974
    DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2022.11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/307974/1/Full-text-article-Wilson-et-al-Episodes-of-liberalization.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1017/psrm.2022.11?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jason Brownlee, 2009. "Portents of Pluralism: How Hybrid Regimes Affect Democratic Transitions," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 515-532, July.
    2. Miller, Michael K., 2015. "Democratic Pieces: Autocratic Elections and Democratic Development since 1815," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 501-530, July.
    3. Jutta Bolt & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2014. "The Maddison Project: collaborative research on historical national accounts," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 67(3), pages 627-651, August.
    4. Svolik, Milan, 2008. "Authoritarian Reversals and Democratic Consolidation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(2), pages 153-168, May.
    5. Gandhi,Jennifer, 2008. "Political Institutions under Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521897952, May.
    6. Wojtyś, Magorzata & Marra, Giampiero & Radice, Rosalba, 2016. "Copula Regression Spline Sample Selection Models: The R Package SemiParSampleSel," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 71(i06).
    7. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, May.
    8. Wojtyś, Małgorzata & Marra, Giampiero & Radice, Rosalba, 2018. "Copula based generalized additive models for location, scale and shape with non-random sample selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-14.
    9. José Cheibub & Jennifer Gandhi & James Vreeland, 2010. "Democracy and dictatorship revisited," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 67-101, April.
    10. Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A. & Edgell, Amanda B. & Hellmeier, Sebastian & Maerz, Seraphine F. & Lindberg, Staffan I., 2021. "How democracies prevail: democratic resilience as a two-stage process," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 28(5), pages 885-907.
    11. Lipset, Seymour Martin, 1959. "Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy1," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 69-105, March.
    12. Vanessa A Boese, 2019. "How (not) to measure democracy," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 95-127, June.
    13. James Heckman, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    14. Wilson, Matthew C. & Medzihorsky, Juraj & Maerz, Seraphine F. & Lindenfors, Patrik & Edgell, Amanda B. & Boese, Vanessa A. & Lindberg, Staffan I., 2023. "Episodes of liberalization in autocracies: a new approach to quantitatively studying democratization," Political Science Research and Methods, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 501-520, July.
    15. Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "Democracy by Mistake: How the Errors of Autocrats Trigger Transitions to Freer Government," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 792-810, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seraphine F Maerz & Amanda B Edgell & Matthew C Wilson & Sebastian Hellmeier & Staffan I Lindberg, 2024. "Episodes of regime transformation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(6), pages 967-984, November.
    2. Sunde, Uwe & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe & Cervellati, Matteo, 2011. "Democratization and Civil Liberties: The Role of Violence During the Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 8315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Mulligan, Casey B. & Tsui, Kevin K., 2015. "Political entry, public policies, and the economy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 377-397.
    4. Maerz, Seraphine F. & Edgell, Amanda B. & Wilson, Matthew C. & Hellmeier, Sebastian & Lindberg, Staffan I., 2024. "Episodes of regime transformation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 61(6), pages 967-984.
    5. Michael K Miller, 2013. "Electoral authoritarianism and democracy: A formal model of regime transitions," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 25(2), pages 153-181, April.
    6. Welander, Anna & Lyttkens, Carl Hampus & Nilsson, Therese, 2014. "Globalization and Child Health in Developing Countries: The Role of Democracy," Working Paper Series 1016, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    7. Michal Madr, 2016. "Economic Development as a Factor of Democratisation: Evidence from Post-Socialist Economies," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2016-70, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    8. Dahlum, Sirianne & Knutsen, Carl Henrik, 2017. "Do Democracies Provide Better Education? Revisiting the Democracy–Human Capital Link," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 186-199.
    9. Li, Yuan & Gilli, Mario, 2014. "Accountability in Autocracies: The Role of Revolution Threat," Stockholm School of Economics Asia Working Paper Series 2014-30, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm China Economic Research Institute, revised 06 Mar 2014.
    10. Maciej Berȩsewicz & Dagmara Nikulin, 2021. "Estimation of the size of informal employment based on administrative records with non‐ignorable selection mechanism," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(3), pages 667-690, June.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Nicolás Ajzenman & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Martin Fiszbein & Carlos Molina, 2025. "(Successful) Democracies Breed Their Own Support," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(2), pages 621-655.
    12. Jong-A-Pin, Richard & Mierau, Jochen O., 2022. "No country for old men: Aging dictators and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    13. María Angélica Bautista & Felipe González & Luis R. Martínez & Pablo Muñoz & Mounu Prem, 2025. "Dictatorship, Higher Education, and Social Mobility," Journal of Historical Political Economy, now publishers, vol. 4(4), pages 509-545, February.
    14. Antonis Adam & Sofia Tsarsitalidou, 2019. "Do sanctions lead to a decline in civil liberties?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 191-215, September.
    15. Christoph Doerffel, 2021. "The Poverty Effect of Democratization: Disaggregating Democratic Institutions," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-018, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    16. Erica Frantz, 2018. "Authoritarian Politics: Trends and Debates," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(2), pages 87-89.
    17. Park, Hyungmin, 2023. "Developmental Dictatorship and Middle Class-driven Democratisation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1485, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    18. Boese-Schlosser, Vanessa A. & Eberhardt, Markus, 2023. "How Does Democracy Cause Growth?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Transformations of Democracy SP V 2023-501, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    19. Espen Geelmuyden Rød & Carl Henrik Knutsen & Håvard Hegre, 2020. "The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 87-111, October.
    20. Leininger, Julia, 2022. "International democracy promotion in times of autocratization: From supporting to protecting democracy," IDOS Discussion Papers 21/2022, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:307974. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    Лучший частный хостинг