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Seeing beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Doruk Cengiz
  • Arindrajit Dube
  • Attila Lindner
  • David Zentler-Munro
Abstract
We assess the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes. First, we apply modern machine learning tools to predict who is affected by the policy. Second, we implement an event study using 172 prominent minimum wage increases between 1979 and 2019. We find a clear increase in wages of affected workers and no change in employment. Furthermore, minimum wage increases have no effect on the unemployment rate, labor force participation, or labor market transitions. Overall, these findings provide little evidence of changing search effort in response to a minimum wage increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner & David Zentler-Munro, 2022. "Seeing beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 203-247.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:doi:10.1086/718497
    DOI: 10.1086/718497
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sylvia Allegretto & Arindrajit Dube & Michael Reich & Ben Zipperer, 2017. "Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 70(3), pages 559-592, May.
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    3. Clemens, Jeffrey & Wither, Michael, 2019. "The minimum wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of effects on the employment and income trajectories of low-skilled workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 53-67.
    4. Jeffrey Clemens & Michael R. Strain, 2017. "Estimating the Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Early Evidence, an Interpretative Framework, and a Pre-Commitment to Future Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Friedman, Jerome H., 2002. "Stochastic gradient boosting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 367-378, February.
    6. Laws, A., 2018. "Do minimum wages increase search effort?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1857, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    9. Christian Dustmann & Attila Lindner & Uta Schönberg & Matthias Umkehrer & Philipp vom Berge, 2022. "Reallocation Effects of the Minimum Wage," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(1), pages 267-328.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • J8 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards
    • J88 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Public Policy

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