lynx   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-55858-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A multi-model study to inform the United States’ 2035 NDC

Author

Listed:
  • Gokul Iyer

    (University of Maryland)

  • Alicia Zhao

    (University of Maryland)

  • Adriana Bryant

    (University of Maryland)

  • John Bistline

    (EPRI)

  • Geoffrey Blanford

    (EPRI)

  • Ryna Cui

    (University of Maryland)

  • Allen A. Fawcett

    (University of Maryland)

  • Rachel Goldstein

    (Energy Innovation)

  • Amanda Levin

    (Natural Resources Defense Council)

  • Megan Mahajan

    (Energy Innovation)

  • Haewon McJeon

    (KAIST Graduate School of Green Growth & Sustainability)

  • Robbie Orvis

    (Energy Innovation)

  • Nathan Hultman

    (University of Maryland)

Abstract
In 2025, countries are expected to submit a third round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that outline emission reduction goals for 2035. These new NDCs will be important for global alignment with the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. Setting an ambitious and plausible 2035 NDC in the United States (US) could be crucial in motivating high levels of ambition globally. This study brings together four US modeling teams to show that an expanded set of federal and state policies beyond current policies could achieve economy-wide emissions reductions of 56-67% below 2005 levels by 2035. By contrast, current policies result in 34-44% reductions. These potential policies significantly close the gap relative to the official US pledge. They also imply 2-4 times increase in renewable capacity additions, 73-100% reduction in electricity generation from unabated fossil fuels, and 83-100% share of electric vehicles in new vehicles sales. This study provides a framework for decisionmakers to use modeling as an input to inform ambitious and plausible pledges.

Suggested Citation

  • Gokul Iyer & Alicia Zhao & Adriana Bryant & John Bistline & Geoffrey Blanford & Ryna Cui & Allen A. Fawcett & Rachel Goldstein & Amanda Levin & Megan Mahajan & Haewon McJeon & Robbie Orvis & Nathan Hu, 2025. "A multi-model study to inform the United States’ 2035 NDC," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-55858-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-55858-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-55858-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-55858-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonas Meckling & Thomas Sterner & Gernot Wagner, 2017. "Policy sequencing toward decarbonization," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 918-922, December.
    2. Elmar Kriegler & John Weyant & Geoffrey Blanford & Volker Krey & Leon Clarke & Jae Edmonds & Allen Fawcett & Gunnar Luderer & Keywan Riahi & Richard Richels & Steven Rose & Massimo Tavoni & Detlef Vuu, 2014. "The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 353-367, April.
    3. Matthew G. Burgess & Leaf Boven & Gernot Wagner & Gabrielle Wong-Parodi & Kyri Baker & Maxwell Boykoff & Benjamin A. Converse & Lisa Dilling & Jonathan M. Gilligan & Yoel Inbar & Ezra Markowitz & Jona, 2024. "Supply, demand and polarization challenges facing US climate policies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(2), pages 134-142, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rohan Best & Paul J. Burke, 2020. "Energy mix persistence and the effect of carbon pricing," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 555-574, July.
    2. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron & Stern, Nicholas, 2018. "Pigou pushes preferences: decarbonisation and endogenous values," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-16, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    3. Son Kim & Kenichi Wada & Atsushi Kurosawa & Matthew Roberts, 2014. "Nuclear energy response in the EMF27 study," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 443-460, April.
    4. Diogo Ferraz & Fernanda P. S. Falguera & Enzo B. Mariano & Dominik Hartmann, 2021. "Linking Economic Complexity, Diversification, and Industrial Policy with Sustainable Development: A Structured Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-29, January.
    5. Audoly, Richard & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Guivarch, Céline & Pfeiffer, Alexander, 2018. "Pathways toward zero-carbon electricity required for climate stabilization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 884-901.
    6. Sterner, Thomas & Ewald, Jens & Sterner, Erik, 2024. "Economists and the climate," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    7. Sebastian Levi & Christian Flachsland & Michael Jakob, 2020. "Political Economy Determinants of Carbon Pricing," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 128-156, May.
    8. Cai, W. & Singham, D.I., 2018. "A principal–agent problem with heterogeneous demand distributions for a carbon capture and storage system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 239-256.
    9. Marian Leimbach & Niklas Roming & Gregor Schwerhoff & Anselm Schultes, 2016. "Development perspectives of Sub-Saharan Africa under climate policies," EcoMod2016 9336, EcoMod.
    10. Karoliina Isoaho & Jochen Markard, 2020. "The Politics of Technology Decline: Discursive Struggles over Coal Phase‐Out in the UK," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 37(3), pages 342-368, May.
    11. Blankenship, Brian & Aklin, Michaël & Urpelainen, Johannes & Nandan, Vagisha, 2022. "Jobs for a just transition: Evidence on coal job preferences from India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    12. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    13. Joseph E. Aldy & William A. Pizer & Keigo Akimoto, 2017. "Comparing emissions mitigation efforts across countries," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 501-515, May.
    14. Laura Diaz Anadon & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2016. "Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 677-691, June.
    15. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    16. Misconel, S. & Leisen, R. & Mikurda, J. & Zimmermann, F. & Fraunholz, C. & Fichtner, W. & Möst, D. & Weber, C., 2022. "Systematic comparison of high-resolution electricity system modeling approaches focusing on investment, dispatch and generation adequacy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    17. Matthias Weitzel, 2017. "The role of uncertainty in future costs of key CO2 abatement technologies: a sensitivity analysis with a global computable general equilibrium model," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 153-173, January.
    18. Bashir, Muhammad Farhan & Ma, Beiling & Sharif, Arshian & Ao, Tong & Koca, Kemal, 2023. "Nuclear energy consumption, energy access and energy poverty: Policy implications for the COP27 and environmental sustainability," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Theis Madsen & Yiannis Kountouris & Rasmus Bramstoft & Phoebe Koundouri & Dogan Keles, 2024. "Pathways for Pan-European Energy System Decarbonization: The Effect of Emission Policies on Target Alignment," DEOS Working Papers 2404, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    20. Thijs Bouman & Linda Steg & Tom Dietz, 2024. "The public demands more climate action, not less," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(11), pages 1-8, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-55858-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    Лучший частный хостинг