[Simplifying and Improving]"> [Simplifying and Improving]"> [Simplifying and Improving], by Fabio">
lynx   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-03989969.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Опростяване И Усъвършенстване
[Simplifying and Improving]

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Ashtar Telarico

    (University of Ljubljana)

Abstract
В продължение на 30 години след края на реалния социализъм България премина от доста радикално "различна" данъчна система към плоска данъчна ставка с пределни данъчни ставки, които спаднаха от 40 % до 10 % както за корпоративния данък, така и за данъка върху доходите на физическите лица. От съществено значение е, че иконометричните модели за прогнозиране, използвани от българското Министерство на финансите, сочат увеличение на данъчните приходи, съвместимо с така наречената "крива на Лафер". Също така много икономисти бяха на мнение, че приходите щяха да се увеличат. Реалността обаче не отговори на очакванията, основани на прогнозните модели и залегнали в основната икономическа теория. Ето защо в настоящата статия се поставя въпросът дали съществуват по-ефективни модели за прогнозиране на приходите от данъци върху доходите на физическите лица и корпоративните данъци в България, които са лесно приложими и превъзхождат сега използваните. След като формулира конструктивна критика на настоящите модели за прогнозиране, статията предлага лесно приложими, прозрачни алтернативи и доказва тяхното превъзходство.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2023. "Опростяване И Усъвършенстване [Simplifying and Improving]," Post-Print hal-03989969, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03989969
    DOI: 10.56497/etj2367601
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03989969
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03989969/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.56497/etj2367601?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stoyan Tanchev, 2016. "The Role of The Proportional Income Tax on Economic Growth of Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 66-77.
    2. Barrios, Salvador & d'Andria, Diego & Gesualdo, Maria, 2020. "Reducing tax compliance costs through corporate tax base harmonization in the European Union," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    3. Rumen Gechev, 2010. "A Low Flat-Rate Tax is Inadequate in Conditions of Crisis," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 142-151, July.
    4. Stoyan Tanchev & Ivan Todorov, 2019. "Tax Buoyancy and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence of Bulgaria," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 5(3), pages 236-248.
    5. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters & Uwe Hassler, 2013. "Introduction to Modern Time Series Analysis," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 2, number 978-3-642-33436-8, July.
    6. Daniel R. Alvord, 2020. "What Matters to Kansas: Small Business and the Defeat of the Kansas Tax Experiment," Politics & Society, , vol. 48(1), pages 27-66, March.
    7. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    8. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2021. "Forecasting pandemic tax revenues in a small, open economy," Papers 2112.15431, arXiv.org.
    9. Emmanuel Saez & Joel Slemrod & Seth H. Giertz, 2012. "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 3-50, March.
    10. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    11. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    12. Andras Chabin & Sébastien Lamproye & Milan Výškrabka, 2020. "Are We More Accurate? Revisiting the European Commission’s Macroeconomic Forecasts," European Economy - Discussion Papers 128, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. Glenn Jenkins & CHUN-YAN KUO & GANGADHAR SHUKLA, 2000. "Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting," Development Discussion Papers 2000-05, JDI Executive Programs.
    14. Richard Boylan, 2008. "Political distortions in state forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 411-427, September.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "Snake-Oil Tax Cuts," Working Paper Series rwp08-056, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    16. Paul Cairney & Richard Kwiatkowski, 2017. "How to communicate effectively with policymakers: combine insights from psychology and policy studies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 3(1), pages 1-8, December.
    17. Martin Keene & Peter Thomson, 2007. "An Analysis of Tax Revenue Forecast Errors," Treasury Working Paper Series 07/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    18. Ondřej Bayer, 2013. "Research of Estimates of Tax Revenue: An Overview," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(3), pages 59-73.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2022. "Simplify and Improve: Revisiting Bulgaria's Revenue Forecasting Models," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 633-654.
    2. Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2023. "Simplifying and Improving: Revisiting Bulgaria's Revenue Forecasting Models," Papers 2303.09405, arXiv.org.
    3. Charles Ka Yui LEUNG & Joe Cho Yiu NG, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," ISER Discussion Paper 1030, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    4. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    5. Ibrahim Ahamada & Philippe Jolivaldt, 2010. "Filtres usuels et filtre fondé sur les ondelettes : étude comparative et application au cycle économique," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 149-161.
    6. Frederico Belo, 2001. "Some Facts about the Cyclical Convergence in the Euro Zone," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249, March.
    8. repec:ehu:dfaeii:6767 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Roberto Astolfi & Dominique Ladiray & Gian Luigi Mazzi, 2001. "Business Cycle Extraction of Euro-Zone GDP: Direct versus Indirect Approach," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 377-398.
    10. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
    11. Juan Manuel Julio, 2011. "Data Revisions and the Output Gap," Borradores de Economia 7956, Banco de la Republica.
    12. Pollock D. S. G., 2013. "Cycles, Syllogisms and Semantics: Examining the Idea of Spurious Cycles," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 81-102, September.
    13. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
    14. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2021. "Does Hamilton’s OLS Regression Provide a “better alternative” to the Hodrick-Prescott Filter? A New Zealand Business Cycle Perspective," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 151-183, November.
    15. Aadland, David, 2005. "Detrending time-aggregated data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 287-293, December.
    16. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2022. "Comparison of HP Filter and the Hamilton’s Regression," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, April.
    17. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Papageorgiou, Theofanis, 2012. "On the transmission of economic fluctuations from the USA to EU-15 (1960–2011)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(6), pages 427-438.
    18. Caldana, Ruggero & Fusai, Gianluca & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2017. "Electricity forward curves with thin granularity: Theory and empirical evidence in the hourly EPEXspot market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(2), pages 715-734.
    19. Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2010. "Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 313-340, September.
    20. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2004. "Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 321-340, July.
    21. Alessandra Iacobucci & Alain Noullez, 2005. "A Frequency Selective Filter for Short-Length Time Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 75-102, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03989969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    Лучший частный хостинг