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Small Boats, Big Impacts: The Ripple Effects of Irregular Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Bhatiya, Apurav

    (University of Birmingham, CAGE, JPAL)

  • Kadam, Shanta

    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract
This paper examines how highly visible irregular migration influences immigration attitudes. Using high-frequency data on small boat crossings from 2018 to 2024 linked with British Election Study panel data, we exploit variation in survey timing to identify short-term effects. Recent arrivals reduce support for immigration, especially among right-leaning media consumers. Left-leaning media can offset these effects, but only among respondents with low baseline concern. Perceived increases in immigration reinforce these patterns, consistent with confirmation bias. Small but salient events can disproportionately shape public sentiment through media framing and prior beliefs, helping explain recent policy tightening, even toward legal migration routes.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhatiya, Apurav & Kadam, Shanta, 2025. "Small Boats, Big Impacts: The Ripple Effects of Irregular Migration," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 757, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:757
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    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp757.2025.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media

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