lynx   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boj/bojwps/02-e-8r.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Growth in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Yasuo Hirose

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Koichiro Kamada

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract
This paper demonstrates the time-varying NAIRU approach for estimation of the potential rate of growth, where the latter is defined as the growth rate at which the inflation rate would be neither accelerating nor decelerating. We show theoretically that this inflation-neutral potential rate of growth is determined by three factors: the rate of technological progress, the growth rates of the production factors, and the shift in the NAIRU. We conduct empirical analysis for Japan since the latter half of the 1980s and show that all three factors have contributed to the lowering of the Japanese potential rate of growth since the early 1990s. In particular, we discover that it was the shift in the NAIRU that caused the protracted period of slowdown in Japanese potential growth around the midst of the 1990s. Furthermore, we show that since 2000, with the strengthening of East Asian international competitiveness, Japan has been driven to substantial reform of its old economic structure, and this may have brought about an acceleration of the shift in the NAIRU. We also point out that the NAIRU estimate and its relationship with the inflation rate are subject to various kinds of uncertainty, and thus care should be taken in their evaluation and interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuo Hirose & Koichiro Kamada, 2002. "Time-Varying NAIRU and Potential Growth in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:02-e-8r
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/wps_rev/wps_2002/data/cwp02e08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    2. Kamada, Koichiro & Masuda, Kazuto, 2001. "Effects of Measurement Error on the Output Gap in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 19(2), pages 109-154, May.
    3. Higo, Masahiro & Nakada, Sachiko-Kuroda, 1999. "What Determines the Relation between the Output Gap and Inflation ? An International Comparison of Inflation Expectations and Staggered Wage Adjustment," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 129-155, December.
    4. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    5. Koichiro Kamada & Naohisa Hirakata, 2002. "Import Penetration and Consumer Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
    7. Yasuo Hirose & Koichiro Kamada, 2001. "A New Technique for Simultaneous Estimation of the Output Gap and Phillips Curve," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    8. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hirose, Yasuo & Kamada, Koichiro, 2003. "A New Technique for Simultaneous Estimation of Potential Output and the Phillips Curve," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 93-112, August.
    2. Kato, Ryo & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2005. "Optimal monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 97-133, January.
    3. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    4. Yasuo Hirose & Koichiro Kamada, 2001. "A New Technique for Simultaneous Estimation of the Output Gap and Phillips Curve," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    5. Fujiwara, Ippei & Hara, Naoko & Hirose, Yasuo & Teranishi, Yuki, 2005. "The Japanese Economic Model (JEM)," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(2), pages 61-142, May.
    6. Baba, Naohiko & Nishioka, Shinichi & Oda, Nobuyuki & Shirakawa, Masaaki & Ueda, Kazuo & Ugai, Hiroshi, 2005. "Japan's Deflation, Problems in the Financial System, and Monetary Policy," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(1), pages 47-111, February.
    7. Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sajid Amin Javed, 2011. "Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 172-179.
    8. Agnese, Pablo & Sala, Hector, 2009. "The fading 1990s in Japan: Driving forces behind the unemployment upsurge," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 428-439, June.
    9. Kamada, Koichiro, 2005. "Real-time estimation of the output gap in Japan and its usefulness for inflation forecasting and policymaking," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-332, December.
    10. Laurence M. Ball, 2006. "Fiscal Remedies for Japan's Slump," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 279-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Research and Statistics Department, 2003. "The Output Gap and the Potential Growth Rate:Issues and Applications as an Indicator for the Pressure on Price Change," Bank of Japan Research Papers 2003-05-09, Bank of Japan.
    12. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa: Eine Bestandsaufnahme," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 389, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    13. Seidman, Laurence & Lewis, Kenneth, 2015. "Stimulus without debt in a severe recession," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 945-960.
    14. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yasuo Hirose & Koichiro Kamada, 2001. "A New Technique for Simultaneous Estimation of the Output Gap and Phillips Curve," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    2. Hirose, Yasuo & Kamada, Koichiro, 2003. "A New Technique for Simultaneous Estimation of Potential Output and the Phillips Curve," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 93-112, August.
    3. Luis Gonzalo Llosa & Shirley Miller, 2004. "Using Additional Information in Estimating the Output Gap in Peru: a Multivariate Unobserved Component Approach," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 57-82, January-J.
    4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    5. Kamada, Koichiro, 2005. "Real-time estimation of the output gap in Japan and its usefulness for inflation forecasting and policymaking," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-332, December.
    6. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.
    7. Chris McDonald & Craig Thamotheram & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2016. "Assessing the economic value of probabilistic forecasts in the presence of an inflation target," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2016/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    8. Koichiro Kamada & Ichiro Muto, 2000. "Forward-looking Models and Monetary Policy in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
    9. Marian Vavra, 2016. "Testing the Validity of Assumptions of UC-ARIMA Models for Trend-Cycle Decompositions," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2016, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    10. Laurence Boone & Michel Juillard & Doug Laxton & Papa N'Diaye, 2002. "How Well Do Alternative Time-Varying Parameter Models of the NAIRU Help Policymakers Forecast Unemployment and Inflation in the OECD Countries?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 359, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
    12. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2022. "Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 152-168, January.
    13. Martha López P., 2004. "Efficient policy rule for inflation targeting in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 22(45), pages 80-115.
    14. Fritz, Marlon, 2019. "Steady state adjusting trends using a data-driven local polynomial regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 312-325.
    15. Richard A. Ashley & Randall J. Verbrugge., 2006. "Mis-Specification in Phillips Curve Regressions: Quantifying Frequency Dependence in This Relationship While Allowing for Feedback," Working Papers e06-11, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Loukoianova, E. & Vahey, S.P. & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2002. "A Real Time Tax Smoothing Based Fiscal Policy Rule," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0235, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
    18. Kristian Jönsson, 2020. "Cyclical Dynamics and Trend/Cycle Definitions: Comparing the HP and Hamilton Filters," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 151-162, November.
    19. Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2011. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions for emerging market economies: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1730-1738, July.
    20. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:02-e-8r. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank of Japan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bojgvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.
    Лучший частный хостинг