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Global water demand projections: past, present and future

Author

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  • Amarasinghe, Upali A.
  • Smakhtin, Vladimir
Abstract
A review of global water demand projections (WDPs) show substantial overpredictions or under-predictions. The pre-1990 WDPs, with population as the main driver of change, overpredicted current water use by 20 to 130%. The post-1990 WDPs, with sophisticated modeling frameworks, show substantial underestimation under the ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios and are more downward biased under sustainable scenarios. Overall, the value of long-term country-level projections in global WDPs is inadequate for local water resource planning. To increase the accuracy and value of global WDPs, future WDPs should take into account the spatial variation and influence of rapidly changing key exogenous and endogenous drivers of water demand in different sectors across and within countries, and provide a sensitivity analysis of projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Smakhtin, Vladimir, 2014. "Global water demand projections: past, present and future," IWMI Reports 201006, International Water Management Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iwmirp:201006
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.201006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. David D. J. Antia, 2016. "ZVI (Fe 0 ) Desalination: Stability of Product Water," Resources, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-47, March.
    7. Xiao-Jun Wang & Jian-Yun Zhang & Shamsuddin Shahid & Wei Xie & Chao-Yang Du & Xiao-Chuan Shang & Xu Zhang, 2018. "Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 911-924, April.
    8. A. Narayanamoorthy & N. Devika & M. Bhattarai, 2016. "More Crop and Profit per Drop of Water: Drip Irrigation for Empowering Distressed Small Farmers," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 5(1), pages 83-90, January.
    9. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas W. & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris Lantz C. & Grogan, Danielle S. & Frolking, Steve, 2017. "Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Security and Land Use," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258118, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2020. "Strengthening the global water supply through a decarbonised global desalination sector and improved irrigation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    11. Nassima Amiri & Rachid Lahlali & Said Amiri & Moussa EL Jarroudi & Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza & Mohammed Messouli, 2021. "Development of an Integrated Model to Assess the Impact of Agricultural Practices and Land Use on Agricultural Production in Morocco under Climate Stress over the Next Twenty Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-23, October.
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