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Working Paper 113 - Monetary Policy Conduct Based on Nonlinear Taylor Rule: Evidence from South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Mthuli Ncube
  • Mthokozisi M. Tshuma
Abstract
This paper analyses the applicability of a nonlinear Taylor rule in characterizing the monetary policy behavior of the South African Reserve Bank, using a logistic smooth transition regression approach. Using quarterly data from 1976 to 2008 to analyze the movement of the nominal short term interest rate for the South African Reserve Bank, we find that a nonlinear Taylor rule holds. On the contrary, some studies find that the South African Reserve Bank behavior can be described by a linear Taylor rule, but only because these studies removed the structural break which coincided with the Asian crises and estimated two different Taylor rules. Our study does not remove the structural break as it is an anomaly path, thus it uses the entire sampling period. Our results go counter to the above mentioned findings. In fact, our results are consistent with the international findings on the European Central Bank and the Bank of England that the nonlinear Taylor rule holds.

Suggested Citation

  • Mthuli Ncube & Mthokozisi M. Tshuma, 2010. "Working Paper 113 - Monetary Policy Conduct Based on Nonlinear Taylor Rule: Evidence from South Africa," Working Paper Series 250, African Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:250
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    2. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna, 2008. "Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3817-3825.
    4. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2006. "Nonlinearity and Structural Change in Interest Rate Reaction Functions for the US, UK and Germany," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 283-310, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Angelica E. Njuguna & Stephen N. Karingi & Mwangi S. Kimenyi, 2005. "Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya," Working papers 2005-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Capazario, Michele, 2022. "Developing an Income-Distribution- Sensitive Taylor Rule: An Application to South Africa," MPRA Paper 112740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Apanisile Olumuyiwa Tolulope, 2013. "A Bound Test Analysis of Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Output and Prices in Nigeria 2000-2010," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(3), pages 136-147.
    3. Khalid, Norlin & Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Yussof, Izzuddin, 2014. "Testing a Non-Linear Model of Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence from Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 48(2), pages 19-27.
    4. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.
    5. Baaziz, Yosra & Labidi, Moez & Lahiani, Amine, 2013. "Does the South African Reserve Bank follow a nonlinear interest rate reaction function?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 272-282.
    6. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2008. "Structural Breaks in Monetary Policy Rules: Evidence from Transition Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 87-97, November.
    7. Gerson Nhapulo & João Nicolau, 2017. "Assessing Nonlinear Dynamics of Central Bank Reaction Function: The Case of Mozambique," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 28-51, March.
    8. Ma, Yong, 2014. "Monetary policy based on nonlinear quantity rule: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-104.

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