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Policy Learning with Confidence

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Chernozhukov
  • Sokbae Lee
  • Adam M. Rosen
  • Liyang Sun
Abstract
This paper introduces a framework for selecting policies that maximize expected welfare under estimation uncertainty. The proposed method explicitly balances the size of the estimated welfare against the uncertainty inherent in its estimation, ensuring that chosen policies meet a reporting guarantee, namely, that actual welfare is guaranteed not to fall below the reported estimate with a pre-specified confidence level. We produce the efficient decision frontier, describing policies that offer maximum estimated welfare for a given acceptable level of estimation risk. We apply this approach to a variety of settings, including the selection of policy rules that allocate individuals to treatments and the allocation of limited budgets among competing social programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Chernozhukov & Sokbae Lee & Adam M. Rosen & Liyang Sun, 2025. "Policy Learning with Confidence," Papers 2502.10653, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2502.10653
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:mpr:mprres:5840 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Kengo Kato & Yuta Koike, 2019. "Improved Central Limit Theorem and bootstrap approximations in high dimensions," Papers 1912.10529, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    3. Daido Kido, 2023. "Locally Asymptotically Minimax Statistical Treatment Rules Under Partial Identification," Papers 2311.08958, arXiv.org.
    4. Howard S. Bloom & Larry L. Orr & Stephen H. Bell & George Cave & Fred Doolittle & Winston Lin & Johannes M. Bos, 1997. "The Benefits and Costs of JTPA Title II-A Programs: Key Findings from the National Job Training Partnership Act Study," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 32(3), pages 549-576.
    5. Peter Z. Schochet & John Burghardt & Sheena McConnell, 2008. "Does Job Corps Work? Impact Findings from the National Job Corps Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1864-1886, December.
    6. repec:mpr:mprres:6097 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. William N. Evans & Shawna Kolka & James X. Sullivan & Patrick S. Turner, 2025. "Fighting Poverty One Family at a Time: Experimental Evidence from an Intervention with Holistic, Individualized, Wraparound Services," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 311-361, February.
    8. Peter Z. Schochet & John Burghardt & Sheena McConnell, 2006. "National Job Corps Study and Longer-Term Follow-Up Study: Impact and Benefit-Cost Findings Using Survey and Summary Earnings Records Data," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 8074f4e4499d4e2ab1de13747, Mathematica Policy Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Moon, 2025. "Optimal Policy Choices Under Uncertainty," Papers 2503.03910, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    2. Isaiah Andrews & Jiafeng Chen, 2025. "Certified Decisions," Papers 2502.17830, arXiv.org.

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