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General Equilibrium Analysis of Conditional Cash Transfers

Author

Listed:
  • Nikita Céspedes

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

Abstract
Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) program is one of the most important anti-poverty policies worldwide. In this document, I study the economic effects of this program by using a stylized dynamic general equilibrium model. I look at the program’s impact on output, human capital, poverty and income inequality. I also study its welfare implications and its effects on the intergenerational transmission of poverty. The quantitative analysis reveals that a long-term implementation of this anti-poverty program helps to reduce the intergenerational transmission of poverty. In aggregate terms the welfare gain is small, but varies across agents; the winners are those who are in the lower tail of the income distribution and the losers are those located in the upper tail. Finally, this program increases the human capital of households and, through this channel, induces a consistent reduction of both poverty and income inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikita Céspedes, 2014. "General Equilibrium Analysis of Conditional Cash Transfers," Working Papers 25, Peruvian Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:apc:wpaper:2014-025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Coady & Margaret Grosh & John Hoddinott, 2004. "Targeting of Transfers in Developing Countries : Review of Lessons and Experience," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14902, April.
    2. James J. Heckman & Lance J. Lochner & Petra E. Todd, 2003. "Fifty Years of Mincer Earnings Regressions," NBER Working Papers 9732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Diego Restuccia & Carlos Urrutia, 2004. "Intergenerational Persistence of Earnings: The Role of Early and College Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1354-1378, December.
    4. Moretti, Enrico, 2004. "Estimating the social return to higher education: evidence from longitudinal and repeated cross-sectional data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 175-212.
    5. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    6. Coady, David & Harris, Rebecca Lee, 2001. "A regional general equilibrium analysis of the welfare impact of cash transfers: an analysis of PROGRESA in Mexico," TMD discussion papers 76, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Samuel Freije & Rosangela Bando & Fernanda Arce, 2006. "Conditional Transfers, Labor Supply, and Poverty: Microsimulating Oportunidades," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 73-124.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • D64 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Altruism; Philanthropy; Intergenerational Transfers
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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