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Coevolution of stock prices and their perceived fundamental value

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  • Mignot, Sarah
Abstract
We develop a simple nonlinear stock market model in which speculators switch between technical and fundamental trading rules depending on market conditions. Additionally, we assume that agents are unaware of the true current fundamental value and, thus, use a weighted average of the current price and the known long-run fundamental value as an estimate of the fundamental price. Using analytical and numerical methods, we demonstrate that an increase in the reaction parameter of technical traders may cause boom-bust dynamics. Moreover, we show that a heightened belief among agents that the fundamental value is more sensitive to deviations of the current price from its long-run fundamental value can cause the price to become trapped above or below this long-run value, oscillate within a higher price range, and prolong the duration of a bubble. In two model extensions, we assume that agents compute the current fundamental value based on the deviation between the average price and the known long-run fundamental value, using a moving average of the past k prices and an exponential moving average, respectively. These robustness checks show that, in these cases, price and perceived fundamental value fluctuate less statically around the long-run fundamental value.

Suggested Citation

  • Mignot, Sarah, 2025. "Coevolution of stock prices and their perceived fundamental value," BERG Working Paper Series 200, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bamber:311829
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/311829/1/1917608160.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bifurcation analysis; chartists and fundamentalists; boom-bust dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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