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Prospects of an ASEAN–People’s Republic of China Free Trade Area: A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Donghyun Park

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Innwon Park

    (Korea University)

  • Gemma Esther Estrada

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China are economic partners as well as economic competitors. The ASEAN–People’s Republic of China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), which is set to come into effect around 2010, is designed to boost trade between the two sides. In this paper, we use insights from customs union theory for a qualitative analysis of whether ACFTA would be beneficial for both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism about ACFTA’s prospects as a vehicle for strengthening economic partnership between ASEAN and the People’s Republic of China.

Suggested Citation

  • Donghyun Park & Innwon Park & Gemma Esther Estrada, 2008. "Prospects of an ASEAN–People’s Republic of China Free Trade Area: A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 130, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0130
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ali M. El-Agraa, 1989. "The Theory and Measurement of International Economic Integration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-10203-7, October.
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    3. Jose L. Tongzon, 2005. "ASEAN‐China Free Trade Area: A Bane or Boon for ASEAN Countries?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 191-210, February.
    4. Innwon Park, 2006. "East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 547-568, December.
    5. Liu Yunhua & Luo Hang, 2004. "Impact of Globalization on International Trade between ASEAN-5 and China: Opportunities and Challenges," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-20, October.
    6. Masahiro Kawai & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2008. "Regionalism as an Engine of Multilateralism: A Case for a Single East Asian FTA," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 14, Asian Development Bank.
    7. David Roland Holst & John Weiss, 2004. "ASEAN and China: Export Rivals or Partners in Regional Growth?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1255-1274, August.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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