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The Transvaluation of the Theory of Economic Policy: The Lucas Critique Reconsidered

Author

Listed:
  • Katherine Moos

    (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)

Abstract
This paper entertains two distinct hypotheses about the meaning and effect of the Lucas critique. The first is that the Lucas critique represents advancement in the theory of economic policy. To accept this interpretation, we will have to find evidence that the Lucas critique is empirically valid, ontologically rigorous, and theoretically sound. In search of such evidence, we will review the writings of economists both within and outside the profession’s mainstream that engage the Lucas critique on these criteria. The alternative hypothesis considered in this paper is that in denouncing the traditional theory of economic policy, Lucas sparked an ideational shift in how macroeconomists understand the meaning and value of policy. By considering macroeconomics as a moral science with a specific ontology, we can understand the philosophical implications of the Lucas critique. This paper entertains the idea that the Lucas critique altered the aspirations of economists and policymakers by undermining belief in the ability of economists to make meaningful interventions in the economy and therefore infusing implicit policy nihilism into macroeconomics.

Suggested Citation

  • Katherine Moos, 2016. "The Transvaluation of the Theory of Economic Policy: The Lucas Critique Reconsidered," Working Papers 1603, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:1603
    as

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    File URL: http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/econ/2016/NSSR_WP_032016.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawson, Tony, 1995. "The 'Lucas Critique': A Generalisation," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 19(2), pages 257-276, April.
    2. Jesper Linde, 2001. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 986-1005, September.
    3. David Colander & Peter Howitt & Alan Kirman & Axel Leijonhufvud & Perry Mehrling, 2018. "Beyond DSGE Models: Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: How Economics Should Be Done, chapter 14, pages 212-216, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. K. Vela Velupillai, 2011. "The Fundamental Theorems of Welfare Economics, DSGE and the Theory of Policy - Computable & Constructive Foundations," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1125, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    5. Peter Skott, 2012. "Pluralism, the Lucas critique, and the integration of macro and micro," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2012-04, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    6. K.Vela Velupillai, 2014. "Friedman's Characterization of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1411, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
    7. Stanley, T. D., 2000. "An empirical critique of the Lucas critique," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 91-107.
    8. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Salmon, Mark, 2002. "Robust Decision Theory And The Lucas Critique," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 167-185, February.
    9. Kevin Hoover, 1994. "Econometrics as observation: the Lucas critique and the nature of econometric inference," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 65-80.
    10. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lucas critique; macroeconomic policy evaluation; nihilism; theory of economic policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

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