The changing global order and security paradigm, worsening impacts of climate change and environmental degradation or accelerating technological change are some examples of long-term trends that have a profound effect on the lives of Europeans. Given the scale, complexity, diversity and persistence of the challenges that we face, the EU needs forward-looking capabilities and systematic intelligence gathering. That is where strategic foresight is critical. The European Commission is one of the globally leading public administrations in its use of strategic foresight. Page contents Page contents What is strategic foresight ?Foresight is not about predicting or forecasting the future. It is the discipline of exploring different possible futures, including the challenges and opportunities that they may present, in a way that helps to shape a preferable future. To do so, it taps into collective intelligence in a structured and systemic way. Strategic foresight seeks to embed such insights into policymaking, strategic planning, and preparedness. It allows policymakers to better consider the long-term impacts of the policies initiated today as well as their robustness under divergent and plausible future scenarios and develop a shared vision of the future. Strategic foresight also helps to ensure policy coherence as it deals with broad cross-cutting policy themes. Futures cone depicting the four main classes of futures: possible, plausible, probable, and preferable Key actorsAt the political level, strategic foresight is under the responsibility of Commissioner for Intergenerational Fairness, Youth, Culture and Sport. The Secretariat-General and the Joint Research Centre (JRC) lead the implementation of the mandate. The Secretariat-General ensures overall coordination of strategic foresight activities, while the JRC offers the know-how and a broad range of foresight methods and tools which support the integration of strategic foresight in EU policymaking. The Commission’s Strategic Foresight Network ensures long-term policy coordination between all Directorates-General.The Commission is building close foresight cooperation and alliances with other EU institutions, notably through the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). The Commission also works with the Member States, through the EU-wide Foresight Network, the launch of which was announced in the Commission’s 2020 Strategic Foresight Report. Its objective is to develop synergies that draw on public administration foresight capabilities, by bringing together intelligence and foresight expertise from all Member States and the European Commission for strategic exchanges and cooperation on forward-looking issues relevant to Europe’s future.The EU-wide Foresight Network has two levels. “Ministers for the Future”, designated by each Member State, meet informally at least once a year. They discuss key issues of relevance for Europe’s future. The work of the Ministers for the Future is supported by a network of senior officials from national administrations, who meet at least twice a year to prepare the ministerial meetings, follow-up on their conclusions and cooperate in thematic working groups.The Commission also collaborates on strategic foresight with international partners such as the UN and the OECD.Strategic Foresight ReportsThe Commission produces annual Strategic Foresight Reports, which inform policy priorities and long-term policy thinking on cross-cutting themes. The reports are developed in a participative and cross-sectoral foresight process, led by Commission services in consultations with the Member States, the ESPAS partners, experts such as think tanks and science advisory bodies, as well as stakeholders and the public (through a public call for evidence).The 2024-2029 CommissionThe 2025 Strategic Foresight Report, ‘Resilience 2.0’: Empowering the EU to thrive amid turbulence and uncertainty’ is the first such a report under the 2024-2029 Commission. It revisits the theme of resilience (which was addressed by the very first Strategic Foresight Report in 2020) in a world that has changed dramatically since. It presents a transformative, forward-looking and proactive approach to ensuring that the EU thrives in turbulent times through 2040 and beyond. Against the background of key global developments, it offers an analysis of key EU challenges relevant to resilience, such as the quest for strategic autonomy and competitiveness, balancing the approach to technology, the pressures on people’s well-being, and threats to democracy and its fundamental values. On that basis, it presents a non-exhaustive list of key areas of action which can have a major impact on strengthening the EU’s overall resilience.2025 Strategic Foresight ReportThe 2019-2024 CommissionThe 2023 Strategic Foresight Report, ‘Sustainability and wellbeing at the heart of Europe’s Open Strategic Autonomy’ sheds light on the most relevant and intertwined social and economic challenges the EU will encounter on its path towards sustainability. On this basis, it proposes ten areas where the EU needs to take action to successfully navigate the transition. This should ultimately bolster Europe’s open strategic autonomy and global position in the race towards net-zero economy.2023 Strategic Foresight ReportThe 2022 Strategic Foresight Report: ‘Twinning the green and digital transitions in the new geopolitical context’, focuses on the interplay between Europe’s twin transitions, also taking into account the disruptive and changing geopolitical landscape in which these transitions are happening. It highlights the key role played by digital technologies in Europe’s five strategic and most greenhouse gas emitting sectors: energy, transport, industry, construction, and agriculture. It also outlines 10 areas of action key to maximise synergies and reduce tensions between both transitions towards 2050.2022 Strategic Foresight ReportThe 2021 Strategic Foresight Report, The EU’s capacity and freedom to act’, presents a forward-looking and multidisciplinary perspective on important trends that will affect the EU towards 2050, including: climate change and other challenges, technological transformations, pressure on democracy and values, as well as shifts in the global order and demography. It has also identified 10 areas where the EU can strengthen its capacity and freedom to act.2021 Strategic Foresight ReportThe 2020 Strategic Foresight Report, ‘Charting the course towards a more resilient Europe’ discussed the first structural lessons learnt from the COVID-19 crisis, and explained how foresight can help strengthen Europe’s long-term resilience in an era of fundamental and rapid change. It did so by analysing the EU’s resilience across four dimensions: social and economic, geopolitical, green and digital.2020 Strategic Foresight ReportSupporting EU policy-makingStrategic foresight in the European Commission helps to improve policy design and supports the Commission’s Better Regulation Agenda. It does so by helping to ensure that major policy initiatives draw on a clear understanding of long-term trends and emerging issues, and that they can be ‘wind-tunnelled’ and stress-tested under various future scenarios. Foresight is useful e.g. for scoping a policy problem, impact assessments, and policy evaluation. Practical guidance to the Commissions’ policymakers in the use of strategic foresight is offered, for example, through the Better Regulation Toolbox. Various Commission departments also run their foresight projects on specific EU policy topics, often in partnership with the JRC. Examples include:The EU Foresight System for Emerging Environmental Issues (FORENV), which has produced several reports.‘Fishers of the future’: a study examining the future role of fishers in society up to 2050.A technology foresight exercise ‘Emerging risks and opportunities for EU internal security stemming from new technologies’. Foresight methods and tools Examples of concrete foresight methods and tools that are used in the Commission include:Horizon scanning: a structured approach to detecting and analysing at an early stage emerging ‘game changers’ that could have significant impact on society and policy. Beyond seeking and identifying emerging trends, horizon scanning helps assess and prioritise early signals for decision-making or for further examination and analysis.Megatrends analysis: an analysis of major global trends and key drivers of change, followed by exploration of how they affect a policy field or a forthcoming policy initiative. It can help to future-proof policy development.Scenario development and exploration: an interactive and iterative process, involving interviews, analysis and modelling, the output of which is scenarios that describe alternative possible futures. These scenarios do not claim to project what the future may look like but serve as a compass for policymakers navigating under increasingly uncertain circumstances. Policymakers can also stress-test different policy options against such a set of alternative scenarios.The full knowledge base on foresight methods and tools is available through the JRC’s Competence Centre on Foresight.ContactFor any enquiries, please contact us at SG-FORESIGHTec [dot] europa [dot] eu (SG-FORESIGHT[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu); JRC-FORESIGHTec [dot] europa [dot] eu (JRC-FORESIGHT[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu) Related links The Megatrends HubHorizon ScanningThe Scenario Exploration System (SES)Competence Centre on ForesightEuropean Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
The changing global order and security paradigm, worsening impacts of climate change and environmental degradation or accelerating technological change are some examples of long-term trends that have a profound effect on the lives of Europeans. Given the scale, complexity, diversity and persistence of the challenges that we face, the EU needs forward-looking capabilities and systematic intelligence gathering. That is where strategic foresight is critical. The European Commission is one of the globally leading public administrations in its use of strategic foresight.
