Mississippi gubernatorial election, 2019 (August 6 Republican primary)
- Primary: Aug. 6
- General election: Nov. 5
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 7
- Early voting: N/A
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 4
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Photo ID required
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
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Governor of Mississippi |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: March 1, 2019 |
Primary: August 6, 2019 Primary runoff: August 27, 2019 General: November 5, 2019 Pre-election incumbent(s): Phil Bryant (Republican) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Mississippi |
Race ratings |
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican Inside Elections: Lean Republican |
Ballotpedia analysis |
Federal and state primary competitiveness State executive elections in 2019 Impact of term limits in 2019 State government trifectas State government triplexes Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2019 |
Mississippi executive elections |
Governor Lieutenant governor |
Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice William Waller (R) advanced to an August 27 runoff in the Republican primary to succeed term-limited Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant (R), while state Rep. Robert Foster (R) was eliminated. Reeves received 48.9% of the vote to Waller's 33.4%.[1] The runoff was triggered since no candidate received 50% of the vote.
Media outlets described Reeves as the Republican frontrunner due to his fundraising ($5.0 million in cash on hand as of July 27), his 15 years as a statewide officeholder, and his endorsement from Bryant.[2] Reeves' campaign emphasized his experience in state government and his opposition to abortion and tax increases.[3]
Waller, the son of Democratic Gov. Bill Waller Sr. (1972-1976), said that deficient infrastructure is the state's biggest problem and criticized Reeves for his opposition to tax increases. He said he could beat Democratic frontrunner Jim Hood in the general election by drawing votes from Democrats and independents.[4]
Foster positioned himself as an outsider focused on the state's agricultural industry. He said he supported expanding Medicaid coverage via waivers that would require participants to contribute a monthly fee to receive coverage.[5]
Bryant won the past two general elections with more than 60 percent of the vote. The state's last Democratic governor was Ronnie Musgrove, who served from 1999 to 2003. As of August 2019, two of three election forecasters tracked by Ballotpedia rated the general election as "Leans Republican" and the other rated it as "Likely Republican."
For more information about the August 6 Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the August 27 Republican primary runoff, click here.
For more information about the November 5 general election, click here.
Mississippi voter? Dates you need to know. | |
---|---|
Candidate Filing Deadline | March 1, 2019 |
Election Registration Deadline | October 7, 2019 |
Absentee Ballot Return Deadline | November 4, 2019 |
General Election | November 5, 2019 |
Voting information | |
Photo ID? | Yes |
Polling place hours | 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. |
Contents
- 1 Candidates and election results
- 2 Candidate profiles
- 3 Endorsements
- 4 Timeline
- 5 Campaign themes
- 6 Policy stances
- 7 Campaign advertisements
- 8 Polls
- 9 Campaign finance
- 10 Satellite spending
- 11 Debates and forums
- 12 Campaign tactics and strategies
- 13 Social media
- 14 Pivot Counties
- 15 Context of the 2019 elections
- 16 Past elections
- 17 State profile
- 18 See also
- 19 External links
- 20 Footnotes
Candidates and election results
Republican primary for Governor of Mississippi
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Tate Reeves | 48.9 | 187,312 | |
✔ | William Waller | 33.4 | 128,010 | |
Robert Foster | 17.7 | 67,758 |
There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source | Total votes: 383,080 | |||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Candidate profiles
Party: Republican
Incumbent: No
Political office: Mississippi House of Representatives (Assumed office: 2016)
Biography: Foster received his B.B.A. from the University of Mississippi in 2005. He then began working for, and later managing, his family's agri-tourism business, Cedar Hill Farm, in Love, Mississippi.[6]
- In his campaign announcement, Foster said he was a conservative outsider and emphasized his background in farming and his Christian faith. He said, "The reason why I have been led to consider running is not based on promises of any campaign contribution or endorsement."[7]
- In an interview with the Jackson Free Press, Foster said he decided to run for governor after two years in the state House due to his passion for helping the state. He said, "I do believe that no matter how strong your convictions are, how passionate you are, if you get into the political system that long, it will grind you down. It will change you and drain you of a lot of that passion because it's a very grueling process."[8]
- Foster said he did not support traditional expansion of Medicaid but did support expanding Medicaid coverage via waivers that would require participants to contribute a monthly fee to receive coverage.[5]
Party: Republican
Incumbent: No
Political office: Mississippi Lieutenant Governor (Assumed office: 2012), Mississippi State Treasurer (2004-2012)
Biography: Reeves received his B.A. in economics from Millsaps College. After college, he worked as a financial analyst in Jackson, Mississippi. In 2003, he was elected Mississippi treasurer at age 29, becoming the first Republican to serve in the position.[9]
- At his campaign announcement, Reeves said, "I will run an optimistic campaign. A campaign that focuses on results and solutions for Mississippi's future and a campaign that always protects the taxpayers and always protects our Mississippi values." He named job creation, fiscal conservativism, low taxes, and education policy as his top priorities.[10]
- Reeves emphasized his experience and leadership positions in state government. Reeves' campaign website highlighted his role in a 2016 income tax cut bill that he said decreased Mississippi's unemployment rate and increased economic growth. It also highlighted his opposition to abortion and support for more restrictions on abortion access.[3]
- Reeves highlighted his support for President Donald Trump and his opposition to national Democratic figures like Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.[10]
Party: Republican
Incumbent: No
Political office: Mississippi Supreme Court (1997-2019; chief justice, 2009-2019), Jackson municipal court (1995-1996)
Biography: Waller received his undergraduate degree from Mississippi State University in 1974 and his J.D. from the University of Mississippi in 1977. He was an attorney at the firm Waller and Waller until he became a municipal court judge in 1995. He was also a brigadier general with the Mississippi Army National Guard. Waller's father was Bill Waller Sr. (D), who served as Mississippi governor from 1972 to 1976. [11]
- Waller said the primary focus of his campaign would be addressing Mississippi's infrastructure needs. He said, "the state of our roads and bridges is the equivalent of your house being on fire, and when your house is on fire, everyone has got to throw a bucket of water."[4]
- Waller drew a contrast with Reeves, saying they have philosophical differences over tax increases and innovative policies to benefit the state. When asked by the Clarion Ledger whether he would raise the gasoline tax, Waller said, "I'm a conservative Republican, and we need to try to look at every option, every avenue that we have. That would be a consideration, but that would be a last gap."[4]
- Waller said he would be best positioned to defeat Jim Hood (D) in the general election because he could draw votes from Democrats and independents.[4]
Endorsements
Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at editor@ballotpedia.org.
Republican candidate endorsements | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Endorsement | Foster | Reeves | Waller | |||
Individuals | ||||||
Jim Herring, former Mississippi GOP chairman (2001-2008)[12] | ✔ | |||||
Mike Retzer, former Mississippi GOP chairman (1978-1982; 1996-2001)[12] | ✔ | |||||
Clarke Reed, former Mississippi GOP chairman (1966-1976)[12] | ✔ | |||||
Billy Powell, former Mississippi GOP chairman (1993-1996)[12] | ✔ | |||||
Gregg Harper, former U.S. representative[12] | ✔ | |||||
Joe Nosef , former Mississippi GOP chairman (2012-2017)[12] | ✔ | |||||
Arnie Hederman , former Mississippi GOP chairman (2011-2012)[12] | ✔ | |||||
Brad White , former Mississippi GOP chairman (2008-2011)[12] | ✔ | |||||
10 mayors from coastal Mississippi | ✔ | |||||
Gov. Phil Bryant (R)[13] | ✔ | |||||
Organizations | ||||||
Americans for Prosperity Action[14] | ✔ | |||||
Mississippi Manufacturers Association[15] | ✔ | |||||
National Rifle Association[16] | ✔ | |||||
American Conservative Union[17] | ✔ | |||||
Mississippi Medical PAC[18] | ✔ | |||||
Mississippi Right to Life PAC[19] | ✔ | |||||
Newspapers and editorials | ||||||
Hub City Spokes editorial board[20] | ✔ |
Timeline
- August 1, 2019: The Hub City Spokes editorial board endorsed Waller.
- July 30, 2019: A periodic campaign finance filing deadline passed. Robert Foster reported raising $48,000 during July 2019 and having $16,000 in cash on hand. Tate Reeves reported raising $1.4 million during July 2019 and having $5.0 million in cash on hand. Bill Waller Jr. reported raising $240,000 during July 2019 and having $120,000 in cash on hand.
- July 30, 2019: Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy released the results of a poll of 500 likely primary voters. The poll found Reeves leading Waller with 41% support to Waller's 31% and Robert Foster's 13%. The poll had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
- July 25, 2019: Bill Waller began airing an ad titled Trust. In the ad, Waller's wife says that Waller is trustworthy and has experience working with others to find solutions.
- July 23, 2019: All three candidates participated in the first and only scheduled televised Republican gubernatorial primary debate.
- July 17, 2019: Bill Waller began airing an ad titled Schools. In the ad, Waller says that he would increase teacher pay and expand access to vocational training.
- July 10, 2019: A periodic campaign finance filing deadline passed. Robert Foster reported raising $22,600 during June 2019 and having $7,100 in cash on hand. Tate Reeves reported raising $1.1 million during June 2019 and having $5.8 million in cash on hand. Bill Waller Jr. reported raising $227,000 during June 2019 and having $373,000 in cash on hand.
- July 9, 2019: The National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund endorsed Reeves.
- July 9, 2019: Tate Reeves began airing an ad titled Heart for Mississippi. In the ad, Reeves' wife Elee said that his love for Mississippi motivated him to seek public office.
- July 8, 2019: Bill Waller began airing an ad titled Coast. In the ad, Waller said that he would ensure that Mississippians from coastal counties would determine how the state spent settlement funds from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and promised to address the impact of the Bonnet Carre Spillway.
- June 30, 2019: Bill Waller began airing an ad titled Roads. In the ad, Waller said that he would repair structurally deficient bridges and state highways.
- June 25, 2019: Y'all Politics released the results of a poll of 354 primary voters it had commissioned from Impact Management Group. The poll found Reeves leading with 50% support to Waller's 19% and Foster's 9%, while 28% remained undecided. The poll had a margin of error of 5.3 percentage points.
- June 21, 2019: Tate Reeves began airing an ad titled Coast. In the ad, Reeves said that he opposed efforts to spend funds from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill settlement on non-coastal areas of Mississippi.
- June 19, 2019: Bill Waller began airing an ad titled Integrity. In the ad, Waller's wife discussed his background and described him as a man of integrity and experience in leadership.
- June 13, 2019: Americans for Prosperity Action endorsed Reeves.
- June 10, 2019: Tate Reeves began airing an ad titled Mississippi Conservative. In the ad, Reeves promised to oppose further regulations and to stand beside President Trump (R).
- June 10, 2019: A periodic campaign finance filing deadline passed. Robert Foster reported raising $34,800 during May 2019 and having $16,600 in cash on hand. Tate Reeves reported raising $570,000 during May 2019 and having $6.3 million in cash on hand. Bill Waller Jr. reported raising $176,000 during May 2019 and having $541,000 in cash on hand.
- June 10, 2019: Tate Reeves began running a campaign ad in which he stated his support for a Mississippi license plate which includes the phrase "In God We Trust". Watch it below.
- June 7, 2019: Robert Foster began airing an ad titled Not the Next Guy in Line. In the ad, Foster compared himself to President Trump (R), saying that he was a businessman, farmer, and political outsider.
- May 6, 2019: Robert Foster began airing an ad titled Outsider. In the ad, Foster described himself as a political outsider.
- April 30, 2019: A quarterly campaign finance filing deadline passed. Robert Foster reported raising $73,000 from January 1 to April 30 and having $18,900 in cash on hand. Tate Reeves reported raising $1 million from January 1 to April 30 and having $6.7 million in cash on hand. Bill Waller Jr. reported raising $583,000 from January 1 to April 30 and having $513,000 in cash on hand.[21]
- April 24, 2019: Tate Reeves began airing his first campaign ad. In the ad, Reeves said that he would help Mississippi reach its full potential by cutting regulations, lowering taxes, and training the workforce. He said Attorney General Jim Hood (D) would not help the state reach its potential. Watch it below.
- April 16, 2019: Mississippi Today reported that four former chairs of Mississippi GOP endorsed Bill Waller Jr. Read more below.
- April 2, 2019: Robert Foster and Bill Waller Jr. participated in a debate at Mississippi State University hosted by the university's College Republicans. Tate Reeves did not participate, saying he needed to tend to legislative duties. Read more here.
- February 28, 2019: State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R), who ran for U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2018, announced that he would not run for governor in 2019. He said he wanted to take a break from statewide campaigns and spend time with his two sons.[22]
- February 20, 2019: Term-limited Gov. Phil Bryant (R) endorsed Tate Reeves for governor. “If a governor and a lieutenant governor cannot work closely together if I cannot be loyal to him as well as he has been loyal to me — then we’re on the wrong path,” Bryant said.[13]
- February 14, 2019: Former Mississippi Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. told the Associated Press that he would run for governor.[23]
- February 6, 2019: A Mason-Dixon poll of a two-candidate matchup between Tate Reeves and Robert Foster showed Reeves with 62 percent of the vote and Foster with 9 percent. The margin of error was 5 percentage points.
Campaign themes
Candidate survey
Ballotpedia invites candidates to participate in its annual survey. |
The following campaign themes came from the candidates' campaign websites, where available.
Robert Foster
Campaign website
Foster’s campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Job Growth and the Economy He also understands how over-taxation and over-regulation can stifle not only a small business, but also job growth and the economy. He believes that a tax on business means a tax on job creation. And that’s why he’s passionate about cutting burdensome regulations and really reforming the tax burden on small business to create a flatter, fairer playing field for all businesses – no matter their size or lobbying power. Our ultimate goal should be to have a state tax environment that is equitable for everyone and conducive to economic prosperity so that government does not feel the need to “give away the farm” in order to have companies locate here. Instead, our focus needs to be on advocating for a renewed career and vocational training programs in order to increase the number of graduating seniors ready to go to work. Mississippians are some of the hardest working people in the world – we just need to give them the tools they need to succeed. Far too many job-creators are turning to other states that offer no personal income tax, less regulation and a larger pool of qualified workers. Now, more than ever, we must position ourselves to be more economically attractive and job friendly to employers wanting to start or expand their business here. We can accomplish this by allowing them to become part of the solution, rather than just benefactors of our education efforts and by moving in the direction of a tax policy based on the premise of excise and sales tax, rather than income and high property tax. The countless number of rules and regulations that come from all of our state agencies, boards, and commissions must be rolled back. We need to enact sunset legislation forcing them to review all of their rules and regulations periodically or they repeal automatically. We must also look into dismantling some unnecessary boards and commissions all together. Right sizing government and empowering small business – not government, should be our top priority. Renewed Education for Mississippi As a public school graduate and parent, I believe we need to better support the education profession with competitive salaries, opportunities for growth, and reduce the testing burden so our teachers can do what they do best – teach. In our high-performing school districts, we need to reward our administrators with more autonomy so they can continue achieving their high success rates at the direction of the local superintendent and school board, not MDE. These same districts need less micro-management from state-government so they can recruit the best educators for the job. We are losing good teachers to other states because of bureaucratic red-tape and uncompetitive compensation. Our schools need to look much different. Someone who can take apart a complicated engine, diagnose a problem, fix it, and put it back together is no less educated than someone with a four-year professional degree – they are just educated in a different trade. Both are incredibly valuable to society and need to be given the proper dedication of resources early on to ensure success in their field of choice. Whether our students are on their way to a career or a dorm room, they need to be prepared for the road ahead. By allowing our industry leaders to become part of the solution, rather than just benefactors of our efforts, we can begin to develop a better educational system – one that prepares students with a valuable skill-set before graduation, allows them to be competitive in the job market, and allows us to increase the number of graduates qualified to work. Every child and school district is unique, and this must be taken into consideration when developing policies – one size does not fit all. The quality of education a child receives is far more important than which building they receive it in. Charter schools and school choice have their place in certain districts and in certain situations, but we must be very careful that our policies do not unintentionally hurt the communities that have invested so much into their already successful public schools. A Healthier Mississippi Mississippi must look beyond “how we’ve always done things”. We need to look to new innovation and basic free-market principles to lower costs, improve quality, and increase accessibility of healthcare for the hard-working people of our state. We must also dismantle the bureaucratic Certificate of Need (C.O.N.) laws, which restrict the supply of critical healthcare facilities, equipment, and even procedures. These monopolistic laws, which inflate the cost of both Medicaid and private insurance, are forcing rural hospitals and clinics to close shop, suppress wages of healthcare workers, and contribute to doctors not wanting to work in our state. C.O.N. laws were declared to be in violation of the Federal Anti-Trust Act by the Federal Trade Commission, and were repealed by the Federal government decades ago. The Federal Department of Justice recommended that states repeal or reform these monopolistic laws. Most states have complied and either repealed or reformed most of their C.O.N. laws, yet Mississippi still protects these corporate healthcare monopolies at the expense of its citizens. This is unacceptable in a state that should be doing everything in its power to increase access to healthcare and reduce its unsustainable costs. Free-market principles work – even in healthcare. When it comes to our Medicaid program, pursuing real Medicaid reform is no longer a question, 200,000 – 300,000 hard-working Mississippians and $1 – $2 Billion dollars are being left off the table each year. We can fix this by working with the Trump administration, in a bipartisan fashion, to help the hard-working people of Mississippi. Emergency room visits, which are costing us billions, can no longer be the solution to their problem. Rather than creating a new government program or incentive, we need to engage with those who have their finger on the pulse of the medical community to help provide better solutions. Infrastructure and Transportation As a result, a special session was needed this summer to address these deferments in maintenance, a painful mistake that has put our economy and safety at risk. We cannot do that again. While investing in our future infrastructure is a must, we need to resist adding flashy projects, and turn our focus to our most critical needs. It’s a hard decision at times, but, as with any business, you must be able to manage your vital assets so you are prepared when the times inevitably get tough. That’s why infrastructure funding must be a focal point of our future budget talks. If we do not look into restructuring how we fund infrastructure, both on the state and local levels, we’re destined to find ourselves in the same predicament again. This will not only harm our economy, it will affect education, public safety, and other services our state provides. We can do this by moving away from income and high property taxes, and towards excise and sales taxes that will result in a more fiscally responsible, long-term solution. Growing the Agriculture Industry Robert has worked on and passed legislation to slow the increase of agricultural property taxes, but realizes with our state’s agricultural property taxes already being 5 – 10 times higher on the same soil types than our neighboring states, that more needs to be done to address this very serious issue. If a new formula is not written to calculate our agricultural property tax rate in an equitable manner, in our lifetimes we could see agriculture insolvency in our state – which would cripple our state’s entire economy. Our neglected bridges must be addressed so that our farmers can get their crops out of their fields, loggers can get their trees to the mills and our poultry, catfish and cattle farmers can get their products to market. All of these farmers pay more than their fair share of taxes and our government has let them down on one of the most basic functions of its responsibility. Robert will work with our President and Congress to push back against over-regulation from the EPA and stand with our farmers to protect their right to farm. We must maintain a safe and clean environment, but common sense must prevail if we are to compete in a global economy. Safer Communities and Criminal Justice Reform Real criminal justice reform has to be on the forefront of our discussions so law enforcement can have the extra resources and time to devote towards more serious crimes. This is why Robert will support our President and his goal to reduce recidivism across America, working to ensure those non-violent offenders are on a path back to contributing to society, not back to jail. A joint effort between the legislature, law enforcement, and our courts could spell a promising future for the countless communities and individuals who have become entrapped in the endless cycle of imprisonment and poverty. Common sense criminal justice reform that differentiates between non-violent offenders who society is inconvenienced by compared to violent criminals, who society is scared of, must be implemented. In many cases helping a non-violent offender try and turn their life around is a better long-term economic solution than years of costly incarceration. Attacking the Opioid Epidemic We can’t punish someone out of addiction. We must lead the effort of penalizing drug traffickers and placing non-violent addicts on the road to wellness. These non-violent offenders need a path back into society where they can once again be economically self-sufficient citizens by investing in mental health programs rather than more jail cells. Robert has lost two grandfathers, a father-in-law and has had several close friends battle with cancer. He has also seen friends’ lives destroyed by opioid addiction – so he gets it. We must look at all scientifically proven and medically beneficial options for pain management, most especially for devastating and debilitating diseases such as cancer and epilepsy. Opioids are not always the best solution, and we must bring law enforcement, the medical community, and all other stakeholders to the table to have a serious conversation about this issue and how we can implement common-sense policies to allow for safer alternatives. [24] |
” |
—Robert Foster’s campaign website (2019)[25] |
Tate Reeves
Campaign website
Reeves' campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Education Of course, there’s more to do. We need to fix the broken bureaucracy that is holding kids back. We need to do more to make sure that when Mississippi kids graduate from high school they’re ready and able to find a Mississippi job or get a Mississippi college education. When I went to public school in my small Mississippi town, I learned real skills that got me ready for life. That’s missing in too many places these days. We also need to look after our most vulnerable students. I support the program that gives children with disabilities access to the education they need to thrive. I’ll protect them. It’s the right thing to do. As governor, we’ll keep working on our schools so that our students are equipped to start lives, careers, and families here in our state. Taxpayer Watchdog Guess what happened. Revenue went up! More business came to Mississippi. More people have jobs, and more money in their pockets to spend in Mississippi businesses. We’ve been able to cut state debt and invest a billion dollars in roads and bridges because we are bringing in more money. That’s what I’ll continue to do as governor: invest in priorities while keeping the lid on wasteful spending and stopping the tax hikes that lobbyists and liberals push. 2nd Amendment Pro-Life Crime Health Care |
” |
Bill Waller Jr.
Campaign website
Waller’s campaign website stated the following:
“ |
1. Improving Roads and Bridges 2. Better Preparing High School Students for the Workforce 3. Increasing Teacher Pay to Support, Attract and Retain High Quality Teachers 4. Solving the Health Care Crisis with a Conservative Solution |
” |
Policy stances
Medicaid expansion
The candidates took the following positions on expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. As governor, Phil Bryant (R) did not pursue Medicaid expansion, which would allow individuals making up to 138 percent of federal poverty level to receive Medicaid coverage.[28]
- Robert Foster said he supported expanding Medicaid via waivers that would allow the state to charge recipients monthly fees. He said, "I do not personally support traditional expansion of Medicaid like they've done in some other states. But what I do support, and what we do have to take into serious consideration, is looking at waivers and an innovative way of bringing health care that is affordable to the working class Mississippians that are left out right now."[5]
- Tate Reeves said he was opposed to expanding Medicaid. He said, "I will remain opposed to any call for Obamacare expansion, no matter what other name or what other form you want to call it. I am opposed to Obamacare expansion in Mississippi because it is not in the best interest of Mississippi taxpayers.”[29]
- Bill Waller said he favored some form of Medicaid expansion according to WLOX.[30] In an April 2 debate at Mississippi State University, he said, “We can have conservative principles invested in the Medicaid plan, where they’re requiring policy payments, co-payments, work.”[31]
Campaign advertisements
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
Robert Foster
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Tate Reeves
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Bill Waller
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Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Mississippi gubernatorial election, 2019 (August 6 Republican primary) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Tate Reeves | William Waller | Robert Foster | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | ||||||||||||
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy July 24-27, 2019 | N/A | 41% | 31% | 13% | 15% | +/-4.5 | 500 | ||||||||||||
Impact Management Group June 10-14, 2019 | Y'all Politics | 50% | 19% | 9% | 28% | +/-5.3 | 354 | ||||||||||||
AVERAGES | 45.5% | 25% | 11% | 21.5% | +/-4.9 | 427 | |||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Mississippi gubernatorial election, 2019 (August 6 Republican primary) (Reeves vs. Foster) | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | Poll sponsor | Tate Reeves | Robert Foster | Other/undecided | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy January 30 - February 1, 2019 | N/A | 62% | 9% | 29% | +/-5.0 | 400 | |||||||||||||
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. |
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Mississippi Secretary of State covering all contributions and expenditures made in 2019 through July 27. Reeves and Waller have individual finance accounts in addition to their committee finance accounts. Money raised and spent in those individual accounts is counted alongside funds from their committee accounts.
In addition to the above figures, Foster and Reeves entered 2019 with funds already in their accounts:
- Foster reported $12,297.38 in his accounts as of January 1, 2019.
- Reeves reported $6,745,136.94 in his accounts as of January 1, 2019.
Satellite spending
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[32][33][34]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
Debates and forums
July 23, 2019
All three candidates participated in the first and only scheduled televised Republican gubernatorial primary debate. Issues discussed included Medicaid expansion, the gas tax, marijuana legalization, and the presence of Confederate imagery on the state flag.
Videos and coverage:
April 2 debate
Robert Foster and Bill Waller Jr. participated in a debate at Mississippi State University hosted by the school's College Republicans. Tate Reeves did not participate, saying he needed to tend to legislative duties.
The issues the candidates discussed included the state's infrastructure, teacher salaries, and Medicaid funding. Read a full round-up of the debate from the Jackson Clarion-Ledger here.
Campaign tactics and strategies
Statements on Donald Trump
As of March 5, each candidate had made a statement about President Donald Trump and his policies.
- Robert Foster said he supported Trump's tariffs on China despite negative effects they may have had on Mississippi's agricultural exports. He said, "I have to support our president and what's he trying to accomplish. The Chinese have been taking advantage of us and other countries for a long time on trade deals, and it has been bleeding our country of all of our manufacturing, of a lot of our industry."
- Foster also said he supported Trump's proposal to pay farmers for their losses during the trade dispute. He said, "[Farming is] one of the biggest parts of our entire economy in this state and in our nation. ... And we're in a very good at what we do. We're going to have to make sure that they're taken care of until we're able to get past this."[8]
- Tate Reeves spoke positively about his relationship with Trump when asked by reporters at his campaign announcement. He said he had attended the White House Christmas party.[10]
- Reeves had also tweeted several statements in support of Trump as of early March 2019. For example, on February 14, he tweeted, "I’m proud to see that President Trump is doing everything in his power to address the national emergency at our border. We must stop the flood of drugs and crime pouring over our border, and walls work! This is what we sent him there to do!"[35]
- When asked about his relationship with Trump, Bill Waller said, "I've never met him, and never talked to him on the phone ... This is a state race, not a federal race. He's certainly got his share of issues right now. I don't think he would get involved. If he did, it's not going to affect this race. We are running for Mississippi governor, not president of the United States." When asked if he was planning to contact Trump, Waller said, "I'm not."[4]
Relationship between Reeves and Republican legislators
In January 2019, Reeves asked for Republican state senators to endorse his bid for governor. As lieutenant governor, Reeves presided over the Mississippi State Senate.
After several senators declined to sign the pledge, Mississippi Today interviewed lawmakers about their relationship with Reeves. Reporter Adam Ganucheau wrote, "In an act that once would have been considered suicidal, several Republican senators bucked Reeves or spoke out about his top-down, heavy-handed leadership style. Reeves has also faced criticism for not giving rank-and-file Republicans a say on major policy."[36]
One unnamed senator said, “Somebody said they like his policies, like on tax cuts, but that he might not have the best bedside manner. That’s a good way to say it.”[36]
Other Republicans spoke highly of Reeves. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Joey Fillingane (R) said, “He’s always extraordinarily respectful, and if we disagree about a bill moving through my committee, he’s willing to let me make my case to both him and the committee members. There really isn’t a single bill that crosses his desk that he doesn’t know everything about. If he takes a meeting on it, he knows it better than almost anyone.”[36]
In response to some senators not endorsing his campaign, Reeves' campaign said, “Since qualifying to run earlier this month, Lieutenant Governor Reeves has asked hundreds of legislators and local elected officials and grassroots leaders for their endorsements. As the campaign progresses he will ask every Mississippian for their endorsements too — and we will keep working until we get a majority.”[36]
Endorsements of Waller by former state GOP chairs
On April 16, 2019, Mississippi Today reported that four former chairmen of the Mississippi GOP endorsed Bill Waller Jr. and cited displeasure with Tate Reeves.
Billy Powell, the chairman from 1993 to 1996, said, “Waller has a much more even temperament to beat Jim Hood in November. What bothers me about Tate is his arrogance. He doesn’t have the tendency to really want to work with people. It’s more of a ‘my way or highway’-type position. His arrogance really turns me off.”
Clark Reed, the chairman from 1966 to 1976, said, “Our infrastructure is crumbling. It’s a crime where we are. We need a gas tax increase. Everybody knows it. I think Tate’s a conservative, but he doesn’t want to seem to pull the trigger at these critical times. He’s a good man, but gosh, you’ve got to have the courage to do the things that might be risky.”
Mike Retzer, the chairman from 1978 to 1982 and 1996 to 2001, said, “Tate had an opportunity, a great opportunity to do some good for our state. Republicans are against taxes, but our roads and bridges are in trouble. Now we’re totally locked in, and taxes are always a sticking point with us, but I think leaders have to lead. Opting to be against everything is one thing, but I think there are issues he should look at more closely.”
About the endorsements, Waller Jr. said, “I think that shows that the senior, established, respected Republican leadership also recognizes that a new direction of leadership is needed.”
In response to the endorsements, Reeves' campaign said, “More than 300 conservative Mississippi leaders have endorsed Tate Reeves, including the governor. That didn’t get covered by Mississippi Today because it showed the party is united not divided. Hundreds more conservatives turned out for rallies and events across the state last week. The Republican Party is going to nominate the proven conservative in this race, and that’s Tate Reeves.”[12]
Social media
Twitter accounts
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Facebook accounts
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Robert Foster
Tate Reeves
Bill Waller
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Two of 82 Mississippi counties—2.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
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County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Chickasaw County, Mississippi | 6.06% | 4.52% | 2.13% | ||||
Panola County, Mississippi | 0.12% | 8.62% | 6.52% |
Context of the 2019 elections
Party control in Mississippi
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans in Mississippi gained a state government trifecta as a result of the 2011 elections, when they took control of the state House.
Mississippi Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas • Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R[37] | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Past elections
2015
- See also: Mississippi gubernatorial election, 2015
Governor of Mississippi, 2015 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
Democratic | Robert Gray | 32.4% | 234,858 | |
Republican | 66.2% | 480,399 | ||
Reform | Shawn O'Hara | 1.4% | 9,950 | |
Total Votes | 725,207 | |||
Election results via Mississippi Secretary of State |
2011
- See also: Mississippi gubernatorial election, 2011
Governor of Mississippi, 2011 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
Republican | 61% | 544,851 | ||
Democratic | Johnny DuPree | 39% | 348,617 | |
Total Votes | 893,468 | |||
Election results via Mississippi Secretary of State |
State profile
- See also: Mississippi and Mississippi elections, 2019
Partisan data
The information in this section was current as of May 7, 2019
Presidential voting pattern
- Mississippi voted Republican in all seven presidential elections between 2000 and 2024.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2018 elections, both U.S. Senators from Mississippi were Republicans.
- Mississippi had one Democratic and three Republican U.S. Representatives.
State executives
- Democrats held three and Republicans held 9 of Mississippi's 15 state executive offices. Elections for the other offices are nonpartisan.
- Mississippi's governor was Republican Phil Bryant.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled the Mississippi State Senate with a 33-19 majority.
- Republicans controlled the Mississippi House of Representatives with a 74-46 majority.
Mississippi Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas • Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R[38] | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
|
|
Demographic data for Mississippi | ||
---|---|---|
Mississippi | U.S. | |
Total population: | 2,989,390 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 46,923 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 59.2% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 37.4% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 1% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 0.4% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 1.2% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 2.9% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 82.3% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 20.7% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $39,665 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 27% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Mississippi. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
See also
Mississippi government: |
Elections: |
Ballotpedia exclusives: |
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Mississippi Secretary of State, "Republican Certified Election Results, 2019," August 16, 2019
- ↑ WTVA, "Hood and Reeves headline 2019 Mississippi election field," March 2, 2019
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Tate Reeves for Governor, "Home," accessed March 4, 2019
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Clarion Ledger, "Why is Bill Waller running for governor? In his words: Mississippi's 'house is on fire,'" March 1, 2019
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Clarion Ledger, "Republican governor candidate Robert Foster supports version of Medicaid expansion," January 8, 2019
- ↑ Robert Foster for Governor, "Meet Robert," accessed March 4, 2019
- ↑ Clarion Ledger, "'Conservative outsider' enters race for Mississippi governor," December 12, 2018
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 Jackson Free Press, "Beyond Angry Tweets: Robert Foster on Why He is Running for Governor," February 6, 2019
- ↑ Office of the Mississippi State Treasurer, "State Treasurer Tate Reeves," accessed May 7, 2011
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Clarion Ledger, "Tate Reeves announces run for governor focused on 'Mississippi values,'" January 3, 2019
- ↑ State of Mississippi Judiciary, "William L. Waller, Jr.," accessed November 12, 2018
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 Mississippi Today, "‘I think he’s more electable than Tate’: Four past GOP chairmen throw support to Waller over Reeves," April 16, 2019
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 WJTV, "Bryant endorses Tate Reeves for Governor," February 20, 2019
- ↑ Y'all Politics, "Americans for Prosperity Action Endorses Tate Reeves for Governor," June 13, 2019
- ↑ Y'all Politics, "Tate Reeves endorsed by Mississippi Manufacturers Association," June 3, 2019
- ↑ National Rifle Association Institute for Legislative Action, "NRA Endorses Tate Reeves for Governor of Mississippi," July 9, 2019
- ↑ American Conservative Union, "ACU Endorses Tate Reeves," accessed July 23, 2019
- ↑ Y'all Politics, "Tate Reeves Outlines Health Care Policy Agenda as Mississippi Medical PAC Endorses," July 15, 2019
- ↑ Y'all Politics, "Tate Reeves endorsed by Mississippi Right to Life PAC," July 22, 2019
- ↑ Hub City Spokes, "Among Republicans, Waller is best choice for governor," August 1, 2019
- ↑ Mississippi Today, "In 2019 governor’s race, Reeves and Hood flex large fundraising totals as Waller catapults into the fold," May 10, 2019
- ↑ Clarion Ledger, "Chris McDaniel announces decision on run for governor," February 28, 2019
- ↑ WREG, "Former chief justice Waller to run for Mississippi governor," February 14, 2019
- ↑ 24.0 24.1 24.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Robert Foster for Governor, “Blueprint for Mississippi,” accessed March 5, 2019
- ↑ Tate Reeves for Governor, "Issues," accessed July 10, 2019
- ↑ Bill Waller for Governor, "Issues," accessed July 10, 2019
- ↑ Mississippi Today, "Gov. Bryant quietly in talks about a Medicaid expansion plan for Mississippi," December 19, 2018
- ↑ Biloxi Sun Herald, "This year’s race for Mississippi governor could rival Barbour-Musgrove," March 4, 2019
- ↑ WLOX, "Retired Chief Justice Bill Waller, Jr. discusses gubernatorial bid," March 1, 2019
- ↑ Jackson Clarion-Ledger, "Waller, Foster talk roads, Medicaid expansion and teacher pay in first debate of governor's race," April 3, 2019
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
- ↑ Twitter, "Tate Reeves on February 14, 2019
- ↑ 36.0 36.1 36.2 36.3 Mississippi Today, "Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, fighting unpopularity and defeated agendas, asks GOP senators to pledge support," January 22, 2019
- ↑ Republicans gained a majority in 2007 when two Democratic state senators switched their party affiliation. Democrats regained the majority as a result of the 2007 elections.
- ↑ Republicans gained a majority in 2007 when two Democratic state senators switched their party affiliation. Democrats regained the majority as a result of the 2007 elections.
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