Margin-of-victory (MOV)

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An electoral margin-of-victory (MOV) is the difference between the share of votes cast for the winning candidate and the second-place candidate in an election. For example, if Candidate A wins an election with 55 percent of the vote and Candidate B, the second-place finisher, wins 45 percent of the vote, the winner's margin of victory is 10 percent. Margins of victory can be used to measure electoral competitiveness, political party or candidate strength, and, indirectly, the popularity of a particular policy or set of policies.[1][2]

Usage

Ballotpedia calculates MOV as the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47.2 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45.8 percent of the vote, the MOV is calculated as 1.4 percent. In cases where a race is uncontested, the MOV is calculated as 100 percent. Ballotpedia uses MOV as a factor in determining the competitiveness of contests. In multi-winner elections, MOV is calculated as the difference between the winner with the fewest votes and the loser with the most votes.

Ballotpedia considers competitive races to be those with a MOV of less than 10 percent. Competitive districts are defined by a margin of victory of 5 percent or less. Mildly competitive districts were defined by a margin of victory between 5 and 10 percent. The MOV in previous Senate elections is one of the primary methods for estimating the potential competitiveness of a state in the future. In addition, MOV in past senate elections, how a president fared in each state is a big indicator of the political climate in a state. For instance, a Democratic incumbent in a state that supported President Donald Trump in 2016 is more likely to be vulnerable than a Democratic incumbent in a state that backed Hillary Clinton.

See also

State legislative competitiveness

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ FairVote, "Average Margin of Victory," accessed August 7, 2017
  2. ↑ Usenix.org, "Computing the Margin of Victory in IRV Elections," accessed August 7, 2017
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