Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Kansas' 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 1, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Steve Watkins (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Kansas
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Kansas' 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th
Kansas elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Kansas, held elections in 2020.

Jacob LaTurner won election in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
June 1, 2020
August 4, 2020
November 3, 2020


Jacob LaTurner defeated incumbent Steve Watkins and Dennis Taylor in the Republican primary. LaTurner received 49% of the vote to Watkins' 34% and Taylor's 17%. Michelle De La Isla defeated James Windholz in the Democratic primary 75% to 25%.

In 2018, Watkins defeated Paul Davis (D) in the general election for the open seat, receiving 47.6 percent of the vote to Davis' 46.8 percent, a margin of 2,239 votes. The 0.8 point margin of victory in 2018 marked a 27.5 point decrease from the 2016 general election, where previous incumbent Lynn Jenkins (R) received 60.9 percent of the vote over Britani Potter's (D) 32.6 percent.

Kansas' 2nd Congressional District covers most of the eastern part of the state, except for the core of the Kansas City Metropolitan Area. The district includes Allen, Anderson, Atchinson, Bourbon, Brown, Cherokee, Coffey, Crawford, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Jackson, Jefferson, Labette, Leavenworth, Linn, Montgomery, Nemaha, Neosho, Osage, Shawnee, Wilson, and Woodson counties. It also contains portions of Marshall and Miami counties. The capital of Topeka is located within this district.[1]


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Kansas' 2nd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 41.3 40.6
Republican candidate Republican Party 56.3 55.1
Difference 15 14.5

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Kansas did not modify any procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 2

Jacob LaTurner defeated Michelle De La Isla and Robert Garrard in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jacob LaTurner
Jacob LaTurner (R)
 
55.1
 
185,464
Image of Michelle De La Isla
Michelle De La Isla (D)
 
40.6
 
136,650
Robert Garrard (L)
 
4.2
 
14,201

Total votes: 336,315
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2

Michelle De La Isla defeated James Windholz in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Michelle De La Isla
Michelle De La Isla
 
75.0
 
41,050
James Windholz
 
25.0
 
13,662

Total votes: 54,712
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2

Jacob LaTurner defeated incumbent Steve Watkins and Dennis Taylor in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Jacob LaTurner
Jacob LaTurner
 
49.1
 
47,898
Image of Steve Watkins
Steve Watkins
 
33.9
 
33,053
Image of Dennis Taylor
Dennis Taylor
 
16.9
 
16,512

Total votes: 97,463
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Kansas. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Kansas with 56.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 36.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1864 and 2016, Kansas voted Republican 84.21 percent of the time and Democratic 15.78 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Kansas voted Republican all five times.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Kansas. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 29 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 21.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 34 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 20.9 points. Clinton won six districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 96 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 32.8 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 91 out of 125 state House districts in Kansas with an average margin of victory of 35.5 points. Trump won 11 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+10, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 10 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Kansas' 2nd Congressional District the 134th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.96. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.96 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Michelle De La Isla Democratic Party $1,840,566 $1,826,448 $14,118 As of December 31, 2020
Jacob LaTurner Republican Party $1,606,573 $1,591,626 $14,947 As of December 31, 2020
Robert Garrard Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Kansas District 2

Steve Watkins defeated Paul Davis and Kelly Standley in the general election for U.S. House Kansas District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Steve Watkins
Steve Watkins (R)
 
47.6
 
126,098
Image of Paul Davis
Paul Davis (D)
 
46.8
 
123,859
Image of Kelly Standley
Kelly Standley (L)
 
5.6
 
14,731

Total votes: 264,688
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2

Paul Davis advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Paul Davis
Paul Davis
 
100.0
 
38,846

Total votes: 38,846
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Kansas District 2 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Steve Watkins
Steve Watkins
 
26.5
 
20,052
Image of Caryn Tyson
Caryn Tyson
 
23.5
 
17,749
Image of Kevin Jones
Kevin Jones
 
14.8
 
11,201
Image of Steve Fitzgerald
Steve Fitzgerald
 
12.2
 
9,227
Image of Dennis Pyle
Dennis Pyle
 
12.1
 
9,126
Image of Doug Mays
Doug Mays
 
8.2
 
6,221
Image of Vernon Fields
Vernon Fields
 
2.6
 
1,987

Total votes: 75,563
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


2016

See also: Kansas' 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Lynn Jenkins (R) defeated Britani Potter (D) and James Houston Bales (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[13][14]

U.S. House, Kansas District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLynn Jenkins Incumbent 60.9% 181,228
     Democratic Britani Potter 32.6% 96,840
     Libertarian James Houston Bales 6.5% 19,333
Total Votes 297,401
Source: Kansas Secretary of State

2014

See also: Kansas' 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of Kansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Lynn Jenkins (R) defeated Margie Wakefield (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Kansas District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngLynn Jenkins Incumbent 57% 128,742
     Democratic Margie Wakefield 38.6% 87,153
     Libertarian Chris Clemmons 4.3% 9,791
Total Votes 225,686
Source: Kansas Secretary of State Official Results

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Ron Estes (R)
Republican Party (5)
Democratic Party (1)