Insiders Poll: Democratic insiders lean against a Biden run
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
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September 10, 2015
A Ballotpedia survey of nearly 100 Democratic Insiders finds that the party activists tilt against another presidential run by Vice President Joe Biden. Asked whether they would “like to see Joe Biden run for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination,” 98 party strategists, pollsters, media consultants, activists, lobbyists and allied interest group operatives, were closely divided on the question: 44 percent said they’d like to see a Biden bid and 56 percent said they would not.
Ironically, many of these Democratic influentials felt that a Biden candidacy would strengthen the putative frontrunner, Hillary Clinton. “She needs it,” said one Democratic Insider. “And if she can't beat him, how can she beat the GOP?” Another Democratic Insider echoed, “Would make the Demo nominee more polished.”
In a variation on that theme, some felt that a Biden campaign would change the motif of the Democratic contest and probably enliven it. “Helps Hillary,” maintained one Democratic operative. “Changes the narrative immediately. Makes it a horse race, moves past e-mail controversy, and will strengthen her candidacy.” Added another, “It would make the campaign more entertaining for sure. One other reason, Democrats may need Biden as a viable back up to HRC.”
Indeed, while Clinton remains the leading contender for the Democratic nomination, some Democrats worry that her candidacy could unravel in the ongoing controversy of her use of a private email system while she was Secretary of State. “Who knows what else we don't know about the Clinton email saga?” asked one Democratic Insider. “Revelations of paying a government employee to manage the server are chilling. What's next?” Another Democratic Insider said, “I love Joe Biden, and he would inject more energy and humanity into the race, and if Hillary collapses, then I guess he probably would be the nominee.”
Some of the proponents of a Biden run thought he brought real advantages to the Democratic race. “If the vice president continues to talk the way he has on Labor Day weekend, I would like to see him run,” professed one Democratic operative. “It would be nice to see someone with some Sanders conviction be able to win.” And succinctly declared that Biden was, “Clean as a whistle!” Added a third, “He would make Hillary a better candidate and steer the debate towards the mainstream.” The survey was conducted anonymously to encourage candor from Democratic Insiders.
There was also plenty of skepticism about a Biden candidacy among the Democratic influentials. Some Democrats suggested that the electorate might want to turn the page on Barack Obama’s presidency. “There is just not the drumbeat for four more years of this Administration,” averred one Democratic Insider. “Joe beats Trump but not a credible Republican nominee.” And some Democrats felt that Biden simply wouldn’t be a good candidate. One Democrat said that the Vice President was “too close to Obama, too old, and [prone to] too many gaffs.” Another lamented that Biden was “a horrible candidate.” Added a third, “Biden brings nothing to the table in a primary or a general besides the ‘crazy uncle’ dynamic that's late night TV fodder.”
But many Democrats share a strong sense of respect and genuine affection for the Vice President and worry that a third presidential run by Biden is likely come up short and that would be an embarrassing blot on his image as a senior statesman who is well-regarded in his party. “I just think he has had his swan song as VP and he has a wonderful legacy as a hands-on-VP,” observed one Democratic Insider. “I think that legacy will be tarnished by tilting-at-windmills run that will end in defeat.” Echoed another, “I love Joe, but he should not run; he wouldn’t win and could tarnish his legacy.”
And some Democrats wonder how Biden could muster the kind of emotional and psychological strength to mount an uphill battle for the Democratic presidential nomination in the wake of the untimely death of his beloved son, Beau, from brain cancer in May. “I cannot imagine anyone could have the energy to run for President after losing a wonderful son,” said one Democrat, expressing the heartfelt sentiment of many. “The man has suffered enough,” maintained another. “He doesn't need to lose another nomination race to end his career.”
Some Democrats admitted they were conflicted on the question of a Biden candidacy. “This is more a yes and no for me, but I'll lean no,” said an influential Democrat, explaining: “I say yes because he’s the sitting Veep and deserves his shot at the presidency. That said, he’s run before more than once and hasn't been successful. This time around, though, he doesn’t have the fire and desire: he's still in mourning. The pressure being put on him to ‘save the party’ from HRC is a bit unfair.”
And as one skeptic of a Biden candidacy cogently warned: “Don't mistake the outpouring of personal affection—and nervousness about HRC—for a compelling case for your candidacy.”
James A. Barnes is a senior writer for Ballotpedia and co-author of the forthcoming 2016 edition of the Almanac of American Politics. He has conducted elite opinion surveys for National Journal, CNN and the on-line polling firm, YouGov. This Insiders survey was conducted September 4-9.
See also
- Joe Biden possible presidential campaign, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Presidential election, 2016/Polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
- Presidential election, 2016/Straw polls
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